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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Blackpool v Plymouth Argyle

Inicio: 2026-09-19 14:00 UTC

Final: Blackpool 2–4 Plymouth Argyle

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

53 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Blackpool (Local)

Predicción 35.44%2.82momio equitativo
EV -4.32%
Ventaja -1.60%
Kelly -2.54%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.43%35.39%35.40%36.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.502.632.622.7040.00%37.97%38.17%37.04%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Plymouth Argyle (Visitante)

Predicción 38.82%2.58momio equitativo
EV -2.95%
Ventaja -1.18%
Kelly -1.97%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.09%38.88%38.75%40.43%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.252.392.402.5044.44%41.82%41.67%40.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 25.74%3.88momio equitativo
EV +1.94%
Ventaja +0.489%
Kelly +0.654%
Crecimiento +0.013%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.96

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.16%25.73%25.85%27.03%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.353.573.603.9629.85%28.01%27.78%25.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Blackpool (Local): 35.44%; Plymouth Argyle (Visitante): 38.82%; Empate: 25.74%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.88. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.96, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.94%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (53 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpate ▼MargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.97%EV -5.74%E -2.16%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.87%EV -6.83%E -2.85%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 24.16%EV +1.94%E +0.489%K +0.654%G +0.013%4.5%2026-09-18 14:10
DraftKings🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.69%EV -6.09%E -2.30%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.41%EV -6.83%E -2.85%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -2.18%E -0.574%K -0.780%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-18 14:04
Sky Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.27%EV -6.80%E -2.59%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.33%EV -10.71%E -4.66%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.41%EV -2.18%E -0.574%K -0.780%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-18 14:05
Betway🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.35%EV -7.15%E -2.73%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.27%EV -10.71%E -4.66%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -2.18%E -0.574%K -0.780%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-18 15:25
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -7.15%E -2.73%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.16%EV -2.95%E -1.18%K -1.97%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.44%EV -3.47%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-17 20:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.04%EV -6.80%E -2.59%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.69%EV -4.89%E -2.00%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.28%EV -3.47%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-16 14:01
LowVig.ag🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 35.66%EV -6.44%E -2.44%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.23%EV -6.83%E -2.85%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -3.47%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-18 14:04
BetOnline.ag🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 35.66%EV -6.44%E -2.44%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.23%EV -6.83%E -2.85%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -3.47%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-18 14:05
BetUS🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 35.66%EV -6.44%E -2.44%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.23%EV -6.83%E -2.85%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV -3.47%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-18 14:10
Betr (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -7.86%E -3.02%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -4.89%E -2.00%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -4.76%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-14 08:35
SportsBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.44%EV -4.32%E -1.60%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.43%EV -10.71%E -4.66%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -4.76%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-18 09:55
Paddy Power🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.44%EV -4.32%E -1.60%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.43%EV -10.71%E -4.66%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -4.76%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-18 09:54
1xBet🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 35.64%EV -7.51%E -2.88%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.08%EV -7.61%E -3.20%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.28%EV -5.27%E -1.43%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-15 20:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 35.64%EV -7.51%E -2.88%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.08%EV -7.61%E -3.20%K -5.51%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.28%EV -5.27%E -1.43%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-15 20:25
Coral🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.06%EV -4.32%E -1.60%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.64%EV -4.89%E -2.00%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.30%EV -7.33%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-15 09:40
Bet Victor🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.75%EV -7.15%E -2.73%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.23%EV -4.89%E -2.00%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -7.33%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-17 14:01
betano_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.75%EV -7.15%E -2.73%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.23%EV -4.89%E -2.00%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -7.33%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-17 14:00
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -7.86%E -3.02%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -4.89%E -2.00%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -7.33%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-15 09:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -6.09%E -2.30%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -6.83%E -2.85%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -7.33%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-14 14:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -6.09%E -2.30%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -6.83%E -2.85%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -7.33%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-18 07:35
Neds🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -6.09%E -2.30%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -6.83%E -2.85%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -7.33%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-18 07:35
BetMGM🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -6.09%E -2.30%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -6.83%E -2.85%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.92%EV -7.33%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-18 04:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -7.15%E -2.73%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.72%EV -6.83%E -2.85%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.33%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-18 07:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -7.86%E -3.02%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -6.83%E -2.85%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -7.33%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-15 16:10
LeoVegas🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -7.86%E -3.02%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -6.83%E -2.85%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -7.33%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-16 14:00
PlayUp🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -7.86%E -3.02%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -6.83%E -2.85%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -7.33%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-18 14:14
theScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.80%EV -9.63%E -3.78%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.84%EV -8.77%E -3.73%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -7.33%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-17 20:25
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.64%EV -11.41%E -4.56%K -7.60%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.60%EV -12.65%E -5.62%K -10.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -7.33%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-15 09:45
Bovada🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.51%EV -7.86%E -3.02%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.47%EV -6.83%E -2.85%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.01%EV -8.62%E -2.43%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-17 09:11
Bet Right🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.96%EV -9.63%E -3.78%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.21%EV -6.83%E -2.85%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.83%EV -8.62%E -2.43%K -3.38%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-15 09:50
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.69%EV -4.32%E -1.60%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.55%EV -5.67%E -2.33%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -9.91%E -2.83%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-12 15:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.69%EV -4.32%E -1.60%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.55%EV -5.67%E -2.33%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -9.91%E -2.83%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-12 15:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.69%EV -4.32%E -1.60%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.55%EV -5.67%E -2.33%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -9.91%E -2.83%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-12 15:20
Casumo🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.69%EV -4.32%E -1.60%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.55%EV -5.67%E -2.33%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -9.91%E -2.83%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-12 15:21
Unibet (NL)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.69%EV -4.32%E -1.60%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.55%EV -5.67%E -2.33%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -9.91%E -2.83%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-12 15:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.69%EV -4.32%E -1.60%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.55%EV -5.67%E -2.33%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -9.91%E -2.83%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-12 15:21
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.69%EV -4.32%E -1.60%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.55%EV -5.67%E -2.33%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -9.91%E -2.83%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-12 15:20
betPARX🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.69%EV -4.32%E -1.60%K -2.54%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.55%EV -5.67%E -2.33%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -9.91%E -2.83%K -3.96%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-12 15:20
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.10%EV -7.86%E -3.02%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.83%EV -8.77%E -3.73%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -9.91%E -2.83%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-18 10:10
Codere (IT)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.04%EV -7.86%E -3.02%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 38.93%EV -9.16%E -3.91%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -9.91%E -2.83%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.8%2026-09-13 20:35
TAB🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.80%EV -7.86%E -3.02%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.34%EV -10.71%E -4.66%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.85%EV -9.91%E -2.83%K -3.96%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-18 14:13
Betsson🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.19%EV -7.15%E -2.73%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.09%EV -6.05%E -2.50%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.72%EV -11.19%E -3.24%K -4.57%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-18 14:05
NordicBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.19%EV -7.15%E -2.73%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.09%EV -6.05%E -2.50%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.72%EV -11.19%E -3.24%K -4.57%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-18 14:05
Tipico (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -6.09%E -2.30%K -3.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.29%EV -6.83%E -2.85%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -12.48%E -3.67%K -5.20%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-17 16:25
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -7.15%E -2.73%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -6.83%E -2.85%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -12.48%E -3.67%K -5.20%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-15 20:26
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -7.15%E -2.73%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -6.83%E -2.85%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -12.48%E -3.67%K -5.20%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-15 20:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -7.15%E -2.73%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -6.83%E -2.85%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -12.48%E -3.67%K -5.20%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-15 20:25
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -7.15%E -2.73%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -6.83%E -2.85%K -4.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -12.48%E -3.67%K -5.20%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-15 20:25
Virgin Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.43%EV -6.80%E -2.59%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.54%EV -8.77%E -3.73%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -13.77%E -4.11%K -5.86%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-12 15:20
Grosvenor🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.43%EV -6.80%E -2.59%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.54%EV -8.77%E -3.73%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -13.77%E -4.11%K -5.86%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-12 15:20
TABtouch🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.43%EV -6.80%E -2.59%K -4.17%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.54%EV -8.77%E -3.73%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.03%EV -13.77%E -4.11%K -5.86%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-12 16:10
BetRivers🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.58%EV -7.86%E -3.02%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.59%EV -9.55%E -4.10%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.84%EV -13.77%E -4.11%K -5.86%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-12 15:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.58%EV -7.86%E -3.02%K -4.91%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.59%EV -9.55%E -4.10%K -7.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.84%EV -13.77%E -4.11%K -5.86%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-12 15:21
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets◎2.86I 34.97%NM 34.87%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.89%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.25%0.3%2026-09-18 15:10
Matchbook◎2.84I 35.21%NM 35.03%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.79%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.18%0.5%2026-09-18 15:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.82I 35.46%NM 35.19%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.69%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.12%0.8%2026-09-18 15:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.84I 35.21%NM 34.91%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.98%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.10%0.9%2026-09-18 14:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.84I 35.21%NM 34.91%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.98%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.10%0.9%2026-09-18 14:45