Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Stevenage v Reading

Inicio: 2026-08-25 18:45 UTC

Final: Stevenage 0–3 Reading

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

49 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Stevenage (Local)

Predicción 37.10%2.70momio equitativo
EV -0.209%
Ventaja -0.078%
Kelly -0.124%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.69

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.55%37.13%37.12%39.23%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.282.462.452.6943.86%40.61%40.82%37.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Reading (Visitante)

Predicción 33.05%3.03momio equitativo
EV +0.797%
Ventaja +0.261%
Kelly +0.389%
Crecimiento +0.003%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.05

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.87%32.97%33.12%33.88%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.632.862.853.0538.02%35.00%35.09%32.79%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 29.85%3.35momio equitativo
EV -1.78%
Ventaja -0.540%
Kelly -0.776%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.29

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
28.69%29.89%29.76%31.29%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.903.113.153.2934.48%32.20%31.75%30.40%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Stevenage (Local): 37.10%; Reading (Visitante): 33.05%; Empate: 29.85%. Para Reading (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.03. 10 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.05, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.797%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (49 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.23%EV -10.97%E -4.57%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV +0.797%E +0.261%K +0.389%G +0.003%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.89%EV -5.96%E -1.89%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-25 17:55
betPARX🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.23%EV -10.97%E -4.57%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV +0.797%E +0.261%K +0.389%G +0.003%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.89%EV -5.96%E -1.89%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-25 17:54
TABtouch🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.23%EV -10.97%E -4.57%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV +0.797%E +0.261%K +0.389%G +0.003%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.89%EV -5.96%E -1.89%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-25 17:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.23%EV -10.97%E -4.57%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV +0.797%E +0.261%K +0.389%G +0.003%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.89%EV -5.96%E -1.89%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-25 17:49
Grosvenor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.23%EV -10.97%E -4.57%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV +0.797%E +0.261%K +0.389%G +0.003%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.89%EV -5.96%E -1.89%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-25 17:49
Svenska Spel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.23%EV -10.97%E -4.57%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV +0.797%E +0.261%K +0.389%G +0.003%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.89%EV -5.96%E -1.89%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-25 17:49
Unibet (NL)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.23%EV -10.97%E -4.57%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV +0.797%E +0.261%K +0.389%G +0.003%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.89%EV -5.96%E -1.89%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-25 17:49
Unibet (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.23%EV -10.97%E -4.57%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV +0.797%E +0.261%K +0.389%G +0.003%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.89%EV -5.96%E -1.89%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-25 17:49
Casumo🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.23%EV -10.97%E -4.57%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV +0.797%E +0.261%K +0.389%G +0.003%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.89%EV -5.96%E -1.89%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-25 17:49
ATG (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.23%EV -10.97%E -4.57%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.87%EV +0.797%E +0.261%K +0.389%G +0.003%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.89%EV -5.96%E -1.89%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-25 17:49
BetRivers🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.16%EV -13.56%E -5.82%K -10.20%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.93%EV -2.51%E -0.850%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.91%EV -8.94%E -2.93%K -4.36%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-25 18:30
Pinnacle🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 35.82%EV -0.209%E -0.078%K -0.124%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.89%EV -3.17%E -1.08%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.29%EV -8.05%E -2.61%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-25 18:35
BetOnline.ag🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.77%EV -6.52%E -2.59%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.49%EV -3.17%E -1.08%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.74%EV -4.46%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-25 09:54
LowVig.ag🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.77%EV -6.52%E -2.59%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.49%EV -3.17%E -1.08%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.74%EV -4.46%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-25 09:54
Marathon Bet🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 36.22%EV -1.32%E -0.497%K -0.796%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 33.10%EV -3.83%E -1.32%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.68%EV -6.26%E -1.99%K -2.92%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-25 18:19
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.87%EV -7.26%E -2.90%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.99%EV -5.15%E -1.79%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.13%EV -2.97%E -0.914%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-25 18:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -9.11%E -3.72%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.74%EV -5.15%E -1.79%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.91%EV -2.97%E -0.914%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-25 18:14
Coolbet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.15%EV -5.40%E -2.12%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.24%EV -5.81%E -2.04%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -4.46%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-25 18:34
BetMGM🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.79%EV -7.26%E -2.90%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.15%EV -5.81%E -2.04%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.07%EV -2.97%E -0.914%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-25 18:14
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.62%EV -7.26%E -2.90%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.00%EV -5.81%E -2.04%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -4.46%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-25 18:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.26%EV -9.11%E -3.72%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.89%EV -5.81%E -2.04%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -2.97%E -0.914%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-25 18:14
Neds🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.26%EV -9.11%E -3.72%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.89%EV -5.81%E -2.04%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.84%EV -2.97%E -0.914%K -1.32%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-25 18:14
Virgin Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 38.87%EV -15.42%E -6.76%K -12.05%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.09%EV -5.81%E -2.04%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.04%EV -11.93%E -4.04%K -6.12%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-25 17:49
LiveScore Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 38.87%EV -15.42%E -6.76%K -12.05%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.09%EV -5.81%E -2.04%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.04%EV -11.93%E -4.04%K -6.12%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-25 17:49
PMU (FR)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 38.87%EV -15.42%E -6.76%K -12.05%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.09%EV -5.81%E -2.04%K -3.14%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.04%EV -11.93%E -4.04%K -6.12%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-25 17:49
1xBet🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 37.55%EV -6.14%E -2.43%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 33.57%EV -6.47%E -2.29%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 28.88%EV -1.78%E -0.540%K -0.776%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-25 18:35
Bet Victor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.48%EV -3.55%E -1.36%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.88%EV -7.46%E -2.67%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.64%EV -4.46%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-25 18:38
betano_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.48%EV -3.55%E -1.36%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.88%EV -7.46%E -2.67%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.64%EV -4.46%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-25 18:37
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.10%EV -5.40%E -2.12%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.79%EV -7.46%E -2.67%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.11%EV -2.97%E -0.914%K -1.32%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-25 18:39
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -3.55%E -1.36%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -7.46%E -2.67%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -7.45%E -2.40%K -3.55%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-25 18:35
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -7.26%E -2.90%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -7.46%E -2.67%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -4.46%E -1.40%K -2.03%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-25 18:39
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.05%EV -7.26%E -2.90%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.08%EV -7.46%E -2.67%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -7.45%E -2.40%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-25 09:24
LeoVegas🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -9.11%E -3.72%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -7.46%E -2.67%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -7.45%E -2.40%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-25 18:35
Tipico (DE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -9.11%E -3.72%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -7.46%E -2.67%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -7.45%E -2.40%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-25 18:24
Bovada🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -9.11%E -3.72%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -7.46%E -2.67%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -7.45%E -2.40%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-25 18:38
theScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -10.97%E -4.57%K -7.83%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -7.46%E -2.67%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -7.45%E -2.40%K -3.55%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-25 15:29
SportsBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.74%EV -3.55%E -1.36%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -9.12%E -3.32%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.47%EV -8.94%E -2.93%K -4.36%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-25 18:35
PlayUp🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.00%EV -7.26%E -2.90%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.64%EV -9.12%E -3.32%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.36%EV -5.96%E -1.89%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-25 18:39
Betsson🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.28%EV -6.52%E -2.59%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -9.12%E -3.32%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.47%EV -10.44%E -3.48%K -5.22%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-25 18:39
NordicBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.28%EV -6.52%E -2.59%K -4.29%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -9.12%E -3.32%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.47%EV -10.44%E -3.48%K -5.22%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-25 18:39
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.45%EV -12.82%E -5.46%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.86%EV -9.12%E -3.32%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.69%EV -5.96%E -1.89%K -2.77%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-25 15:29
888sport🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.55%EV -9.11%E -3.72%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.57%EV -9.12%E -3.32%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.88%EV -13.42%E -4.63%K -7.06%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-25 10:34
William Hill🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.55%EV -9.11%E -3.72%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.57%EV -9.12%E -3.32%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.88%EV -13.42%E -4.63%K -7.06%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-25 10:29
888sport (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.55%EV -9.11%E -3.72%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.57%EV -9.12%E -3.32%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.88%EV -13.42%E -4.63%K -7.06%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-25 10:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.55%EV -9.11%E -3.72%K -6.28%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.57%EV -9.12%E -3.32%K -5.21%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.88%EV -13.42%E -4.63%K -7.06%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-25 10:29
NetBet (FR)🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 36.79%EV -10.23%E -4.23%K -7.20%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 32.73%EV -10.11%E -3.72%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 30.49%EV -12.82%E -4.39%K -6.68%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-25 18:38
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -7.26%E -2.90%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.21%EV -10.77%E -3.99%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.92%EV -13.42%E -4.63%K -7.06%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-25 18:34
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.05%EV -12.82%E -5.46%K -9.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.11%EV -10.77%E -3.99%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.84%EV -7.45%E -2.40%K -3.55%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-25 15:29
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.55%EV -7.26%E -2.90%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.80%EV -13.08%E -4.97%K -8.03%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.65%EV -13.42%E -4.63%K -7.06%G +0.000%12.5%2026-08-25 18:34
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.80I 35.71%NM 35.45%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.53%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.02%0.7%2026-08-25 18:39
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.80I 35.71%NM 35.45%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.53%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.02%0.7%2026-08-25 18:39
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.80I 35.71%NM 35.45%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.53%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.02%0.7%2026-08-25 18:39
Matchbook◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.61%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.45%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.94%1.0%2026-08-25 18:39