The School of Odds
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Plymouth Argyle v Exeter City

Kickoff: 2026-08-08 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Plymouth Argyle (Local)

Prediction 58.80%1.70fair odd
EV -5.92%
Edge -3.70%
Kelly -9.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.43%58.93%58.34%60.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.561.551.6065.36%64.16%64.52%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Exeter City (Visit)

Prediction 18.83%5.31fair odd
EV +3.57%
Edge +0.648%
Kelly +0.792%
Growth +0.028%

assuming max odds 5.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.49%18.81%19.24%20.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.784.705.5022.22%20.92%21.28%18.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.37%4.47fair odd
EV -3.81%
Edge -0.885%
Kelly -1.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.61%22.26%22.42%22.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.074.004.3025.00%24.58%25.00%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Plymouth Argyle (Local): 58.80%; Exeter City (Visit): 18.83%; Draw: 22.37%. For Exeter City (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.31. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.57%.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.13%EV -5.92%E -3.70%K -9.87%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.49%EV +3.57%E +0.648%K +0.792%G +0.028%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.37%EV -3.81%E -0.885%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.9%2026-06-26 11:49
FanDuel🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.81%EV -10.04%E -6.56%K -18.94%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.55%EV -0.201%E -0.038%K -0.047%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.64%EV -3.81%E -0.885%K -1.15%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-26 14:39
Betr (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.63%EV -7.10%E -4.49%K -12.24%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.94%EV -1.14%E -0.218%K -0.269%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.43%EV -6.04%E -1.44%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-30 02:59
SportsBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.25%EV -7.69%E -4.90%K -13.48%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -5.85%E -1.17%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -6.04%E -1.44%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-26 11:49
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.25%EV -7.69%E -4.90%K -13.48%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -5.85%E -1.17%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -6.04%E -1.44%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-26 11:48
Sky Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.25%EV -7.69%E -4.90%K -13.48%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.60%EV -5.85%E -1.17%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -6.04%E -1.44%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.5%2026-06-26 14:29
1xBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.61%EV -5.92%E -3.70%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.92I 20.33%NM 19.06%EV -7.36%E -1.50%K -1.88%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -6.04%E -1.44%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-06-26 18:48
LeoVegas🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.25%EV -8.86%E -5.72%K -16.11%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -9.62%E -2.00%K -2.53%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.61%EV -4.92%E -1.16%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-02 10:20
BetRivers🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.23%EV -8.86%E -5.72%K -16.11%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.20%EV -11.50%E -2.45%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.56%EV -10.52%E -2.63%K -3.51%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 05:19
betPARX🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.23%EV -8.86%E -5.72%K -16.11%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.20%EV -11.50%E -2.45%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.56%EV -10.52%E -2.63%K -3.51%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:09
Unibet (SE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.23%EV -8.86%E -5.72%K -16.11%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.20%EV -11.50%E -2.45%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.56%EV -10.52%E -2.63%K -3.51%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.23%EV -8.86%E -5.72%K -16.11%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.20%EV -11.50%E -2.45%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.56%EV -10.52%E -2.63%K -3.51%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.23%EV -8.86%E -5.72%K -16.11%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.20%EV -11.50%E -2.45%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.56%EV -10.52%E -2.63%K -3.51%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:29
Grosvenor🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.23%EV -8.86%E -5.72%K -16.11%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.20%EV -11.50%E -2.45%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.56%EV -10.52%E -2.63%K -3.51%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:29
LiveScore Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.23%EV -8.86%E -5.72%K -16.11%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.20%EV -11.50%E -2.45%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.56%EV -10.52%E -2.63%K -3.51%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:29
Virgin Bet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.23%EV -8.86%E -5.72%K -16.11%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.20%EV -11.50%E -2.45%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.56%EV -10.52%E -2.63%K -3.51%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:29
Casumo🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.23%EV -8.86%E -5.72%K -16.11%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.20%EV -11.50%E -2.45%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.56%EV -10.52%E -2.63%K -3.51%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:29
ATG (SE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.23%EV -8.86%E -5.72%K -16.11%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.20%EV -11.50%E -2.45%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.56%EV -10.52%E -2.63%K -3.51%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:29
Svenska Spel🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.23%EV -8.86%E -5.72%K -16.11%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.20%EV -11.50%E -2.45%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.56%EV -10.52%E -2.63%K -3.51%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:29
TABtouch🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.23%EV -8.86%E -5.72%K -16.11%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.20%EV -11.50%E -2.45%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.56%EV -10.52%E -2.63%K -3.51%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:39
Unibet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.23%EV -8.86%E -5.72%K -16.11%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.20%EV -11.50%E -2.45%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.56%EV -10.52%E -2.63%K -3.51%G +0.000%10.8%2026-06-30 08:39
PMU (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.23%EV -8.86%E -5.72%K -16.11%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.20%EV -11.50%E -2.45%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.56%EV -10.52%E -2.63%K -3.51%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-16 14:05
William Hill🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.43%EV -7.69%E -4.90%K -13.48%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%EV -15.26%E -3.39%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.54%EV -10.52%E -2.63%K -3.51%G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-30 14:00
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.43%EV -7.69%E -4.90%K -13.48%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%EV -15.26%E -3.39%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.54%EV -10.52%E -2.63%K -3.51%G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-30 14:09
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.43%EV -7.69%E -4.90%K -13.48%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%EV -15.26%E -3.39%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.54%EV -10.52%E -2.63%K -3.51%G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-30 14:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.43%EV -7.69%E -4.90%K -13.48%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.04%EV -15.26%E -3.39%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.54%EV -10.52%E -2.63%K -3.51%G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-30 14:19
BoyleSports🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.06%EV -10.04%E -6.56%K -18.94%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.74%EV -15.26%E -3.39%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.21%EV -10.52%E -2.63%K -3.51%G +0.000%12.6%2026-06-27 15:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-06-26 15:39
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-06-26 15:39
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-06-26 15:39

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