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Nottingham Forest v Leeds United

2026-08-25 15:00 UTC — EFL Cup

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nottingham Forest (Local)

Prediction 45.05%2.22fair odd
EV -5.39%
Edge -2.57%
Kelly -4.90%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.85%45.05%45.05%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.062.062.1050.00%48.47%48.43%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Leeds United (Visit)

Prediction 28.67%3.49fair odd
EV -5.39%
Edge -1.63%
Kelly -2.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.67%28.67%28.67%29.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.233.253.3032.26%30.93%30.77%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.28%3.81fair odd
EV -5.39%
Edge -1.50%
Kelly -2.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.78%26.28%26.28%26.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.583.603.6028.57%27.91%27.78%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Nottingham Forest (Local): 45.05%; Leeds United (Visit): 28.67%; Draw: 26.28%. For Nottingham Forest (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.22. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.10, with an expected value of -5.39%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.05%EV -5.39%E -2.57%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.67%EV -5.39%E -1.63%K -2.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.28%EV -5.39%E -1.50%K -2.07%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-11 12:04
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.85%EV -5.39%E -2.57%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -6.83%E -2.10%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -5.39%E -1.50%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-11 12:00
SportsBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.09%EV -6.29%E -3.03%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.86%EV -6.83%E -2.10%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -5.39%E -1.50%K -2.07%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-11 12:00
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -7.65%E -3.73%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -6.83%E -2.10%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -5.39%E -1.50%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-11 12:05
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -7.65%E -3.73%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -6.83%E -2.10%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -5.39%E -1.50%K -2.07%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-11 12:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.11%EV -9.90%E -4.95%K -9.90%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -11.13%E -3.59%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.78%EV -8.02%E -2.29%K -3.21%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-11 12:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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