Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Norwich City v Milton Keynes Dons

Inicio: 2026-08-08 14:00 UTC

Final: Norwich City 4–1 Milton Keynes Dons

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

50 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Norwich City (Local)

Predicción 61.87%1.62momio equitativo
EV -4.10%
Ventaja -2.65%
Kelly -7.46%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
58.82%61.65%61.94%62.86%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.431.501.501.5569.93%66.75%66.67%64.52%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Milton Keynes Dons (Visitante)

Predicción 16.51%6.06momio equitativo
EV -0.948%
Ventaja -0.158%
Kelly -0.190%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 6.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
15.69%16.62%16.48%18.37%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.955.535.656.0020.20%18.08%17.70%16.67%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 21.62%4.63momio equitativo
EV -4.87%
Ventaja -1.11%
Kelly -1.43%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
20.75%21.73%21.58%23.53%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.754.184.104.4026.67%23.95%24.39%22.73%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Norwich City (Local): 61.87%; Milton Keynes Dons (Visitante): 16.51%; Empate: 21.62%. Para Milton Keynes Dons (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 6.06. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 6.00, con un valor esperado de -0.948%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (50 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.33%EV -4.10%E -2.65%K -7.46%G +0.000%5.31I 18.83%NM 17.61%EV -12.34%E -2.32%K -2.86%G +0.000%4.24I 23.58%NM 22.06%EV -8.33%E -1.96%K -2.57%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 13:58
Pinnacle🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.96%EV -5.34%E -3.49%K -10.07%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.34%EV -4.25%E -0.733%K -0.885%G +0.000%4.37I 22.88%NM 21.69%EV -5.52%E -1.26%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-08 13:59
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.75%EV -5.34%E -3.49%K -10.07%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.43%EV -5.08%E -0.883%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.82%EV -6.38%E -1.47%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 13:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.75%EV -5.34%E -3.49%K -10.07%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.43%EV -5.08%E -0.883%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.82%EV -6.38%E -1.47%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 13:14
BetMGM🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.75%EV -5.34%E -3.49%K -10.07%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.43%EV -5.08%E -0.883%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.82%EV -6.38%E -1.47%K -1.92%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 13:15
theScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.04%EV -5.34%E -3.49%K -10.07%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.98%EV -9.20%E -1.67%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.98%EV -8.11%E -1.91%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-08 13:59
Bovada🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.97%EV -5.34%E -3.49%K -10.07%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.65%EV -14.15%E -2.72%K -3.37%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.38%EV -11.36%E -2.77%K -3.66%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-08 13:58
LowVig.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.44%EV -5.34%E -3.49%K -10.07%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.37%EV -18.28%E -3.69%K -4.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.18%EV -11.36%E -2.77%K -3.66%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-08 13:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.44%EV -5.34%E -3.49%K -10.07%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.37%EV -18.28%E -3.69%K -4.63%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.18%EV -11.36%E -2.77%K -3.66%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-08 13:59
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -5.34%E -3.49%K -10.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -17.46%E -3.49%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -13.52%E -3.38%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 13:34
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -5.34%E -3.49%K -10.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -17.46%E -3.49%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -13.52%E -3.38%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 13:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -5.34%E -3.49%K -10.07%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -17.46%E -3.49%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -13.52%E -3.38%K -4.51%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 13:34
Unibet (UK)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.97%EV -5.96%E -3.92%K -11.45%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.38%EV -5.08%E -0.883%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.65%EV -5.95%E -1.37%K -1.78%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-08 12:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.38%EV -5.96%E -3.92%K -11.45%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.66%EV -7.55%E -1.35%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.95%EV -8.11%E -1.91%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 13:14
Neds🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.38%EV -5.96%E -3.92%K -11.45%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.66%EV -7.55%E -1.35%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.95%EV -8.11%E -1.91%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 13:15
NordicBet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.89%EV -5.96%E -3.92%K -11.45%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.69%EV -2.60%E -0.440%K -0.530%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.43%EV -14.60%E -3.70%K -4.95%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-08 12:49
Betsson🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.89%EV -5.96%E -3.92%K -11.45%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.69%EV -2.60%E -0.440%K -0.530%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.43%EV -14.60%E -3.70%K -4.95%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-08 12:50
Coolbet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.86%EV -7.19%E -4.80%K -14.39%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -0.948%E -0.158%K -0.190%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -4.87%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-08 13:24
Betr (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.86%EV -7.19%E -4.80%K -14.39%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -0.948%E -0.158%K -0.190%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -4.87%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-08 13:24
betano_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.86%EV -7.19%E -4.80%K -14.39%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -0.948%E -0.158%K -0.190%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -4.87%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-08 13:45
Bet Victor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.86%EV -7.19%E -4.80%K -14.39%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -0.948%E -0.158%K -0.190%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -4.87%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-08 13:48
SportsBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.34%EV -7.19%E -4.80%K -14.39%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.41%EV -5.90%E -1.04%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.25%EV -4.87%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 13:55
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -7.19%E -4.80%K -14.39%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.84%EV -9.20%E -1.67%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -6.38%E -1.47%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 13:09
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.76%EV -7.19%E -4.80%K -14.39%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.84%EV -9.20%E -1.67%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.40%EV -6.38%E -1.47%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 13:50
BetRivers🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.56%EV -7.19%E -4.80%K -14.39%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.92%EV -4.25%E -0.733%K -0.885%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.52%EV -11.36%E -2.77%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-08 13:29
betPARX🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.47%EV -7.19%E -4.80%K -14.39%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV -5.08%E -0.883%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -11.36%E -2.77%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-08 13:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.47%EV -7.19%E -4.80%K -14.39%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV -5.08%E -0.883%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -11.36%E -2.77%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-08 13:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.47%EV -7.19%E -4.80%K -14.39%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV -5.08%E -0.883%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -11.36%E -2.77%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-08 13:54
Unibet (NL)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.47%EV -7.19%E -4.80%K -14.39%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV -5.08%E -0.883%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -11.36%E -2.77%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-08 13:55
Grosvenor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.47%EV -7.19%E -4.80%K -14.39%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV -5.08%E -0.883%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -11.36%E -2.77%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-08 13:55
Casumo🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.47%EV -7.19%E -4.80%K -14.39%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV -5.08%E -0.883%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -11.36%E -2.77%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-08 13:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.47%EV -7.19%E -4.80%K -14.39%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV -5.08%E -0.883%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -11.36%E -2.77%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-08 13:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.47%EV -7.19%E -4.80%K -14.39%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV -5.08%E -0.883%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -11.36%E -2.77%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-08 13:55
TABtouch🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.47%EV -7.19%E -4.80%K -14.39%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV -5.08%E -0.883%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -11.36%E -2.77%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-08 13:54
Unibet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.47%EV -7.19%E -4.80%K -14.39%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.04%EV -5.08%E -0.883%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -11.36%E -2.77%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-08 13:54
PlayUp🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.16%EV -7.19%E -4.80%K -14.39%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.41%EV -9.20%E -1.67%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.44%EV -16.76%E -4.35%K -5.88%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-08 12:50
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.82%EV -7.19%E -4.80%K -14.39%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -17.46%E -3.49%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.53%EV -18.92%E -5.05%K -6.88%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-08 13:34
Marathon Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.55%EV -7.81%E -5.24%K -15.94%G +0.000%5.85I 17.09%NM 15.93%EV -3.42%E -0.585%K -0.706%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.52%EV -6.38%E -1.47%K -1.92%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 13:54
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.83%EV -8.43%E -5.70%K -17.57%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.03%EV -4.25%E -0.733%K -0.885%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -4.87%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-08 13:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 61.69%EV -8.43%E -5.70%K -17.57%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.56%EV -14.15%E -2.72%K -3.37%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -4.87%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-08 12:54
Tipico (DE)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.45%EV -9.05%E -6.16%K -19.26%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.69%EV -9.20%E -1.67%K -2.04%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -4.87%E -1.11%K -1.43%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-08 13:59
LeoVegas🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.75%EV -9.05%E -6.16%K -19.26%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.29%EV -13.33%E -2.54%K -3.14%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.96%EV -6.38%E -1.47%K -1.92%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-08 12:55
Winamax (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 61.51%EV -9.67%E -6.62%K -21.02%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.61%EV -15.81%E -3.10%K -3.86%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.88%EV -7.03%E -1.64%K -2.13%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-08 12:54
Virgin Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 61.14%EV -10.29%E -7.09%K -22.86%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.42%EV -10.85%E -2.01%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.44%EV -14.60%E -3.70%K -4.95%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-08 13:54
LiveScore Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -10.91%E -7.57%K -24.79%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.86%EV -7.55%E -1.35%K -1.64%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.48%EV -14.60%E -3.70%K -4.95%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-08 13:30
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.32%EV -10.91%E -7.57%K -24.79%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.66%EV -17.46%E -3.49%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.02%EV -9.19%E -2.19%K -2.87%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-08 13:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.32%EV -10.91%E -7.57%K -24.79%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.66%EV -17.46%E -3.49%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.02%EV -9.19%E -2.19%K -2.87%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-08 13:54
PMU (FR)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.30%EV -10.91%E -7.57%K -24.79%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.35%EV -10.85%E -2.01%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.35%EV -14.60%E -3.70%K -4.95%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-08 13:55
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.68%EV -10.91%E -7.57%K -24.79%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.48%EV -17.46%E -3.49%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.84%EV -13.52%E -3.38%K -4.51%G +0.000%14.4%2026-08-08 13:54
NetBet (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 61.58%EV -11.52%E -8.06%K -26.80%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.94%EV -14.15%E -2.72%K -3.37%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.48%EV -11.36%E -2.77%K -3.66%G +0.000%13.6%2026-08-08 13:59
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 63.00%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.95%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.05%1.1%2026-08-08 13:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.57I 63.69%NM 63.00%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.95%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.05%1.1%2026-08-08 13:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.57I 63.69%NM 63.00%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.95%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.05%1.1%2026-08-08 13:50
Matchbook1.57I 63.69%NM 63.00%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.95%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.05%1.1%2026-08-08 13:45