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Newcastle United v West Bromwich Albion
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Newcastle United (Local)
Prediction 67.20%1.49fair odd
EV -1.22%
Edge -0.831%
Kelly -2.60%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.47
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.83%67.28%67.30%69.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.391.401.4775.76%71.84%71.43%68.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
West Bromwich Albion (Visit)
Prediction 13.55%7.38fair odd
EV +8.41%
Edge +1.05%
Kelly +1.20%
Growth +0.101%
assuming max odds 8.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.03%13.42%13.56%17.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.006.626.548.0020.00%15.11%15.30%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 19.25%5.19fair odd
EV -1.81%
Edge -0.356%
Kelly -0.442%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 5.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.88%19.30%19.13%21.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.755.005.1025.00%21.05%20.00%19.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Newcastle United (Local): 67.20%; West Bromwich Albion (Visit): 13.55%; Draw: 19.25%. For West Bromwich Albion (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.38. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.41%.
Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.73%EV -5.93%E -4.23%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.03%EV +8.41%E +1.05%K +1.20%G +0.101% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.24%EV -3.74%E -0.748%K -0.935%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-14 06:09 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.47%EV -5.25%E -3.73%K -12.81%G +0.000% | 7.90I 12.66%NM 12.22%EV +7.06%E +0.893%K +1.02%G +0.072% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.31%EV -3.74%E -0.748%K -0.935%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-14 06:09 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.62%EV -5.93%E -4.23%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 13.06%EV -1.75%E -0.242%K -0.280%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.32%EV -5.66%E -1.16%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-13 23:49 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.67%EV -9.28%E -6.88%K -26.53%G +0.000% | 7.25I 13.79%NM 12.79%EV -1.75%E -0.242%K -0.280%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.54%EV -3.74%E -0.748%K -0.935%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-13 23:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.10%EV -9.28%E -6.88%K -26.53%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.13%EV -5.14%E -0.734%K -0.857%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.76%EV -5.66%E -1.16%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-12 10:04 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -10.63%E -7.99%K -32.21%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -5.14%E -0.734%K -0.857%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -3.74%E -0.748%K -0.935%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-13 23:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.68%EV -10.63%E -7.99%K -32.21%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -5.14%E -0.734%K -0.857%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -3.74%E -0.748%K -0.935%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-13 23:48 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.09%EV -11.30%E -8.56%K -35.31%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.03%EV -5.14%E -0.734%K -0.857%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 17.88%EV -1.81%E -0.356%K -0.442%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-13 23:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.76%EV -3.91%E -2.73%K -9.09%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.14%EV -8.53%E -1.26%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -3.74%E -0.748%K -0.935%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-12 17:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.80%EV -5.25%E -3.73%K -12.81%G +0.000% | 6.57I 15.22%NM 14.12%EV -10.97%E -1.67%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 4.62I 21.65%NM 20.08%EV -11.06%E -2.39%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-12 10:24 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -5.93%E -4.23%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -11.92%E -1.83%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -3.74%E -0.748%K -0.935%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-12 17:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -5.93%E -4.23%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -11.92%E -1.83%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -3.74%E -0.748%K -0.935%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-12 17:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -5.93%E -4.23%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -11.92%E -1.83%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -3.74%E -0.748%K -0.935%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-12 17:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.87%EV -5.93%E -4.23%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.40%EV -11.92%E -1.83%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.72%EV -3.74%E -0.748%K -0.935%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-12 17:30 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.21%EV -5.93%E -4.23%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -11.92%E -1.83%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -15.29%E -3.48%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-13 12:48 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.21%EV -5.93%E -4.23%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.04%EV -11.92%E -1.83%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -15.29%E -3.48%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-12 17:34 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.50%EV -3.24%E -2.25%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.24%EV -18.69%E -3.12%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.26%EV -17.22%E -4.00%K -5.22%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-12 17:34 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 62.62%EV -5.25%E -3.73%K -12.81%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.35%EV -26.82%E -4.97%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.02%EV -19.14%E -4.56%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-08-12 17:34 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 61.93%EV -6.60%E -4.75%K -16.92%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 16.55%EV -29.53%E -5.68%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.52%EV -22.99%E -5.75%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 16.2% | 2026-08-12 17:34 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 60.83%EV -1.22%E -0.831%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.88%EV -32.24%E -6.45%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.29%EV -19.14%E -4.56%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-12 08:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.