Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Middlesbrough v Wrexham AFC

Inicio: 2026-08-07 19:00 UTC

Final: Middlesbrough 1–0 Wrexham AFC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

51 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Middlesbrough (Local)

Predicción 54.76%1.83momio equitativo
EV -4.17%
Ventaja -2.38%
Kelly -5.56%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
53.15%54.82%54.84%55.89%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.621.691.701.7561.73%59.26%58.82%57.14%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Wrexham AFC (Visitante)

Predicción 20.84%4.80momio equitativo
EV -1.02%
Ventaja -0.216%
Kelly -0.273%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.75

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
19.89%20.84%20.85%22.19%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.004.404.354.7525.00%22.71%22.99%21.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 24.40%4.10momio equitativo
EV -2.39%
Ventaja -0.596%
Kelly -0.795%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.53%24.34%24.31%25.61%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.503.803.824.0028.57%26.30%26.18%25.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Middlesbrough (Local): 54.76%; Wrexham AFC (Visitante): 20.84%; Empate: 24.40%. Para Wrexham AFC (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.80. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 4.75, con un valor esperado de -1.02%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (51 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
LowVig.ag🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.50%EV -4.17%E -2.38%K -5.56%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.73%EV -4.15%E -0.902%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.77%EV -6.05%E -1.57%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-07 18:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.50%EV -4.17%E -2.38%K -5.56%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.73%EV -4.15%E -0.902%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.77%EV -6.05%E -1.57%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-07 18:50
Pinnacle🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.53%EV -4.72%E -2.71%K -6.38%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.63%EV -4.15%E -0.902%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.84%EV -6.78%E -1.77%K -2.40%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-07 18:50
William Hill🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.18%EV -5.27%E -3.04%K -7.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -6.23%E -1.39%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.99%EV -8.49%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-07 18:40
SportsBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.59%EV -5.81%E -3.38%K -8.07%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%EV -8.32%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.07%EV -4.83%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-07 18:50
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 53.49%EV -5.81%E -3.38%K -8.07%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.65%EV -11.44%E -2.69%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.86%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-07 18:55
1xBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.73%EV -6.36%E -3.72%K -8.96%G +0.000%4.52I 22.12%NM 20.71%EV -5.82%E -1.29%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 24.56%EV -7.02%E -1.84%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-07 18:50
theScore Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.21%EV -6.36%E -3.72%K -8.96%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.07%EV -8.32%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.72%EV -8.49%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-07 18:40
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.75%EV -6.91%E -4.06%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.95%EV -1.02%E -0.216%K -0.273%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.30%EV -4.83%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-07 18:55
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.72%EV -6.91%E -4.06%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.59%EV -4.15%E -0.902%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -2.39%E -0.596%K -0.795%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-07 18:25
Coolbet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -6.91%E -4.06%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -6.23%E -1.39%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -2.39%E -0.596%K -0.795%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-07 18:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -6.91%E -4.06%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -4.15%E -0.902%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -4.83%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-07 18:25
betano_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -6.91%E -4.06%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -4.15%E -0.902%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -4.83%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-07 18:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -6.91%E -4.06%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV -4.15%E -0.902%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -4.83%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-07 18:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -6.91%E -4.06%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -6.23%E -1.39%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -4.83%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-07 18:25
Neds🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.14%EV -6.91%E -4.06%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -6.23%E -1.39%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -4.83%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-07 18:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.04%EV -6.91%E -4.06%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.34%EV -4.15%E -0.902%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -7.27%E -1.91%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-07 18:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.86%EV -6.91%E -4.06%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -6.23%E -1.39%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.41%EV -6.78%E -1.77%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-07 18:45
Betway🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.35%EV -6.91%E -4.06%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.34%EV -9.78%E -2.26%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.31%EV -7.27%E -1.91%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-07 18:45
NordicBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%EV -6.91%E -4.06%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 20.75%EV -7.28%E -1.64%K -2.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.95%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-07 18:50
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.27%EV -6.91%E -4.06%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.45%EV -10.40%E -2.42%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -7.27%E -1.91%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-07 18:15
888sport🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.18%EV -6.91%E -4.06%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -8.32%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-07 18:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.18%EV -6.91%E -4.06%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -8.32%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-07 18:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.18%EV -6.91%E -4.06%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%EV -8.32%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.89%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-07 18:40
Bovada🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.91%EV -6.91%E -4.06%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.31%EV -10.40%E -2.42%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.77%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-07 18:50
PlayUp🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.36%EV -6.91%E -4.06%K -9.87%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.09%EV -10.40%E -2.42%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.55%EV -13.37%E -3.77%K -5.24%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-07 18:55
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.89%EV -7.46%E -4.41%K -10.81%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.89%EV -1.02%E -0.216%K -0.273%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.22%EV -4.83%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-07 18:25
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.02%EV -7.46%E -4.41%K -10.81%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -8.32%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.84%EV -4.83%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-07 18:50
Unibet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.87%EV -8.00%E -4.76%K -11.77%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.19%EV -9.36%E -2.15%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -6.05%E -1.57%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-07 18:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.87%EV -8.00%E -4.76%K -11.77%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.19%EV -9.36%E -2.15%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -6.05%E -1.57%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-07 18:55
Grosvenor🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.87%EV -8.00%E -4.76%K -11.77%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.19%EV -9.36%E -2.15%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -6.05%E -1.57%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-07 18:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.87%EV -8.00%E -4.76%K -11.77%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.19%EV -9.36%E -2.15%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -6.05%E -1.57%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-07 18:55
TABtouch🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.87%EV -8.00%E -4.76%K -11.77%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.19%EV -9.36%E -2.15%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -6.05%E -1.57%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-07 18:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.87%EV -8.00%E -4.76%K -11.77%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.19%EV -9.36%E -2.15%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -6.05%E -1.57%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-07 18:55
Casumo🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.87%EV -8.00%E -4.76%K -11.77%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.19%EV -9.36%E -2.15%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -6.05%E -1.57%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-07 18:55
betPARX🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.87%EV -8.00%E -4.76%K -11.77%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.19%EV -9.36%E -2.15%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -6.05%E -1.57%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-07 18:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.87%EV -8.00%E -4.76%K -11.77%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.19%EV -9.36%E -2.15%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -6.05%E -1.57%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-07 18:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.87%EV -8.00%E -4.76%K -11.77%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.19%EV -9.36%E -2.15%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -6.05%E -1.57%K -2.12%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-07 18:55
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.23%EV -8.55%E -5.12%K -12.76%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV -6.23%E -1.39%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -7.27%E -1.91%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-06 20:16
Fliff🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.67%EV -8.55%E -5.12%K -12.76%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 20.99%EV -9.36%E -2.15%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.35%EV -8.49%E -2.26%K -3.09%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-07 18:50
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.43%EV -8.55%E -5.12%K -12.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -12.49%E -2.97%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -7.27%E -1.91%K -2.60%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-07 18:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.43%EV -8.55%E -5.12%K -12.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.64%EV -12.49%E -2.97%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.92%EV -7.27%E -1.91%K -2.60%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-07 18:45
LeoVegas🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.68%EV -8.55%E -5.12%K -12.76%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.70%EV -9.78%E -2.26%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.61%EV -14.59%E -4.17%K -5.83%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-07 18:40
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.15%EV -8.55%E -5.12%K -12.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -16.65%E -4.16%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.66%EV -12.15%E -3.37%K -4.67%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-07 18:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.03%EV -9.10%E -5.48%K -13.79%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.24%EV -10.40%E -2.42%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.73%EV -6.05%E -1.57%K -2.12%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-07 18:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.61%EV -9.65%E -5.85%K -14.84%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.86%EV -8.32%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -4.83%E -1.24%K -1.66%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-07 18:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.88%EV -10.19%E -6.22%K -15.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.43%EV -12.49%E -2.97%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.69%EV -7.27%E -1.91%K -2.60%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-07 18:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.84%EV -11.29%E -6.97%K -18.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.15%EV -12.49%E -2.97%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.01%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-07 18:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.84%EV -11.29%E -6.97%K -18.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.15%EV -12.49%E -2.97%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.01%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-07 18:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.84%EV -11.29%E -6.97%K -18.21%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.15%EV -12.49%E -2.97%K -3.90%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.01%EV -9.71%E -2.62%K -3.59%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-07 18:55
NetBet (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.74%EV -11.29%E -6.97%K -18.21%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.62%EV -10.40%E -2.42%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.63%EV -12.15%E -3.37%K -4.67%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-07 18:49
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook1.80I 55.56%NM 55.13%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.67%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.20%0.8%2026-08-07 18:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.81I 55.25%NM 54.75%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.08%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.17%0.9%2026-08-07 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 54.88%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.02%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.10%1.2%2026-08-07 18:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 54.88%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.02%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.10%1.2%2026-08-07 18:50