Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Grimsby Town v Blackpool

Inicio: 2026-08-08 13:59 UTC

Final: Grimsby Town 1–3 Blackpool

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

49 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Grimsby Town (Local)

Predicción 39.47%2.53momio equitativo
EV -3.30%
Ventaja -1.35%
Kelly -2.28%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.45

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.74%39.44%39.40%40.85%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.202.362.382.4545.45%42.31%42.02%40.82%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Blackpool (Visitante)

Predicción 33.20%3.01momio equitativo
EV -2.72%
Ventaja -0.927%
Kelly -1.41%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.93

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.16%33.18%33.31%34.24%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.602.752.752.9338.46%36.30%36.36%34.13%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.33%3.66momio equitativo
EV -0.248%
Ventaja -0.068%
Kelly -0.094%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.65

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.63%27.37%27.28%28.53%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.103.353.323.6532.26%29.86%30.12%27.40%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Grimsby Town (Local): 39.47%; Blackpool (Visitante): 33.20%; Empate: 27.33%. Para Empate, esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.66. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.65, con un valor esperado de -0.248%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (49 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
BetRivers🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -3.30%E -1.35%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -10.35%E -3.83%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.27%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-08 13:44
betPARX🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -3.30%E -1.35%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -10.35%E -3.83%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.27%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-08 13:44
Unibet (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -3.30%E -1.35%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -10.35%E -3.83%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.27%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-08 13:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -3.30%E -1.35%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -10.35%E -3.83%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.27%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-08 13:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -3.30%E -1.35%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -10.35%E -3.83%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.27%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-08 13:45
Grosvenor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -3.30%E -1.35%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -10.35%E -3.83%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.27%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-08 13:45
Casumo🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -3.30%E -1.35%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -10.35%E -3.83%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.27%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-08 13:44
ATG (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -3.30%E -1.35%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -10.35%E -3.83%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.27%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-08 13:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -3.30%E -1.35%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -10.35%E -3.83%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.27%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-08 13:44
TABtouch🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -3.30%E -1.35%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -10.35%E -3.83%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.27%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-08 13:44
Unibet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -3.30%E -1.35%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.24%EV -10.35%E -3.83%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.27%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-08 13:45
Pinnacle🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.41%EV -4.49%E -1.85%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.55%EV -2.72%E -0.927%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.05%EV -7.08%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-08 13:45
Marathon Bet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.52%EV -4.49%E -1.85%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 33.41%EV -7.37%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.08%EV -9.27%E -2.79%K -3.99%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-08 13:49
Coral🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.65%EV -5.28%E -2.20%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.16%EV -4.71%E -1.64%K -2.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.19%EV -4.35%E -1.24%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-06 10:15
BetMGM🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.56%EV -5.28%E -2.20%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.31%EV -5.37%E -1.89%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -4.35%E -1.24%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-06 10:15
Coolbet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.33%EV -5.28%E -2.20%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -7.03%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.35%E -1.24%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-08 06:29
Betr (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.33%EV -5.28%E -2.20%K -3.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -7.03%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -4.35%E -1.24%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-06 07:04
betano_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -6.07%E -2.55%K -4.40%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.97%EV -4.38%E -1.52%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -4.35%E -1.24%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 13:33
Bet Victor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -6.07%E -2.55%K -4.40%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.97%EV -4.38%E -1.52%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -4.35%E -1.24%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 13:33
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.22%EV -6.07%E -2.55%K -4.40%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -7.03%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -7.08%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-30 13:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.22%EV -6.07%E -2.55%K -4.40%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -7.03%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -7.08%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-06 10:10
Neds🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.22%EV -6.07%E -2.55%K -4.40%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -7.03%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -7.08%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-06 10:10
Betway🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.98%EV -6.07%E -2.55%K -4.40%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.69%E -3.16%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.29%EV -7.08%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-08 13:50
NordicBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.96%EV -6.07%E -2.55%K -4.40%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.36%EV -7.70%E -2.77%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.68%EV -8.45%E -2.52%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-08 13:50
Betsson🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.96%EV -6.07%E -2.55%K -4.40%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.36%EV -7.70%E -2.77%K -4.32%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.68%EV -8.45%E -2.52%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-08 13:50
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 39.32%EV -6.46%E -2.73%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.28%EV -7.03%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.41%EV -7.08%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-06 10:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.06%EV -7.25%E -3.08%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -5.37%E -1.89%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -4.35%E -1.24%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-08 13:09
FanDuel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.98%EV -7.25%E -3.08%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -3.71%E -1.28%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -7.08%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-08 13:55
SportsBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -7.25%E -3.08%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.64%EV -5.37%E -1.89%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.77%EV -8.45%E -2.52%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-08 13:55
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.56%EV -7.25%E -3.08%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -10.35%E -3.83%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.88%EV -11.18%E -3.44%K -4.97%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-08 13:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.74%EV -7.25%E -3.08%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.11%EV -13.67%E -5.26%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.15%EV -13.91%E -4.42%K -6.47%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-08 13:44
Virgin Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.74%EV -7.25%E -3.08%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.11%EV -13.67%E -5.26%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.15%EV -13.91%E -4.42%K -6.47%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-08 13:44
PMU (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.74%EV -7.25%E -3.08%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.11%EV -13.67%E -5.26%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.15%EV -13.91%E -4.42%K -6.47%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-08 13:45
LowVig.ag🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.09%EV -8.04%E -3.45%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -10.35%E -3.83%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -8.45%E -2.52%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-08 13:50
BetOnline.ag🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.09%EV -8.04%E -3.45%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.73%EV -10.35%E -3.83%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.18%EV -8.45%E -2.52%K -3.59%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-08 13:50
theScore Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.27%EV -9.22%E -4.01%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.50%EV -5.37%E -1.89%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -7.08%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-08 13:10
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -9.22%E -4.01%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -8.69%E -3.16%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -5.71%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-08 13:49
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.94%EV -9.22%E -4.01%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.23%EV -5.37%E -1.89%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.27%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-08 13:05
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -9.22%E -4.01%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -7.03%E -2.51%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -11.18%E -3.44%K -4.97%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-08 13:54
LeoVegas🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -9.22%E -4.01%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -8.69%E -3.16%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.27%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-08 13:55
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -9.22%E -4.01%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.42%EV -10.35%E -3.83%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.27%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-08 13:54
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -9.22%E -4.01%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.42%EV -10.35%E -3.83%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.27%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-08 13:54
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -9.22%E -4.01%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.42%EV -10.35%E -3.83%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.27%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-08 13:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.23%EV -9.22%E -4.01%K -7.09%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.42%EV -10.35%E -3.83%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.27%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-08 13:54
1xBet🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 40.85%EV -9.62%E -4.20%K -7.46%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 33.53%EV -7.37%E -2.64%K -4.11%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.63%EV -0.248%E -0.068%K -0.094%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-08 13:49
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.48%EV -11.20%E -4.98%K -8.96%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.12%EV -8.69%E -3.16%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.40%EV -5.71%E -1.66%K -2.33%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-08 13:09
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.31%EV -11.20%E -4.98%K -8.96%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.16%EV -8.69%E -3.16%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.53%EV -15.28%E -4.93%K -7.28%G +0.000%13.1%2026-08-08 13:54
NetBet (FR)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 39.77%EV -12.38%E -5.58%K -10.15%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 33.07%EV -11.35%E -4.25%K -6.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.17%EV -11.18%E -3.44%K -4.97%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-08 13:34
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.62%EV -13.17%E -5.99%K -10.97%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -10.35%E -3.83%K -6.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -7.08%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-08 13:09
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.62%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.48%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.90%1.0%2026-08-08 13:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.62%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.48%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.90%1.0%2026-08-08 13:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.50I 40.00%NM 39.62%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.48%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.90%1.0%2026-08-08 13:50
Matchbook2.50I 40.00%NM 39.62%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.48%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.90%1.0%2026-08-08 13:40