The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Fleetwood Town v Everton

2026-12-15 00:00 UTC — EFL Cup

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fleetwood Town (Local)

Prediction 12.40%8.06fair odd
EV -6.99%
Edge -0.932%
Kelly -1.08%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 7.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.40%12.40%12.40%13.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.007.157.007.5014.29%13.99%14.29%13.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Everton (Visit)

Prediction 72.10%1.39fair odd
EV -5.55%
Edge -4.24%
Kelly -17.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.32%72.10%72.10%72.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.301.301.3177.52%76.92%76.92%76.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 15.50%6.45fair odd
EV -6.99%
Edge -1.17%
Kelly -1.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.50%15.50%15.50%16.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.505.685.506.0018.18%17.61%18.18%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Fleetwood Town (Local): 12.40%; Everton (Visit): 72.10%; Draw: 15.50%. For Everton (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.39. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.31, with an expected value of -5.55%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -6.99%E -0.932%K -1.08%G +0.000%1.29I 77.52%NM 72.10%EV -6.99%E -5.42%K -24.12%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.50%EV -6.99%E -1.17%K -1.40%G +0.000%7.5%2026-11-02 13:20
SportsBet🎯7.25I 13.79%NM 12.88%EV -10.09%E -1.39%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 71.29%EV -5.55%E -4.24%K -17.91%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.83%EV -8.54%E -1.45%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-11-02 13:19
Paddy Power🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -13.19%E -1.88%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.32%EV -6.27%E -4.83%K -20.91%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -14.74%E -2.68%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-02 13:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -13.19%E -1.88%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.32%EV -6.27%E -4.83%K -20.91%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -14.74%E -2.68%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-02 13:25
Sky Bet🎯7.00I 14.29%NM 13.06%EV -13.19%E -1.88%K -2.20%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.32%EV -6.27%E -4.83%K -20.91%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.62%EV -14.74%E -2.68%K -3.28%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-02 13:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎6.00I 16.67%NM 8.74%1.17I 85.47%NM 44.84%1.13I 88.50%NM 46.42%90.6%2026-11-02 18:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎6.00I 16.67%NM 8.74%1.17I 85.47%NM 44.84%1.13I 88.50%NM 46.42%90.6%2026-11-02 18:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎6.00I 16.67%NM 8.67%1.17I 85.47%NM 44.46%1.11I 90.09%NM 46.87%92.2%2026-11-02 15:55