Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Crystal Palace v Middlesbrough

Início: 2026-09-08 18:45 UTC

Final: Crystal Palace 3–0 Middlesbrough

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

51 casas de apostas (18 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Crystal Palace (Local)

Previsão 43.64%2.29odd justa
EV -2.69%
Vantagem -1.21%
Kelly -2.19%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.23

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
42.59%43.75%43.61%46.10%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.952.112.102.2351.28%47.41%47.62%44.84%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Middlesbrough (Visitante)

Previsão 29.56%3.38odd justa
EV +1.98%
Vantagem +0.573%
Kelly +0.806%
Crescimento +0.016%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.45

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
27.95%29.49%29.54%30.60%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.903.173.153.4534.48%31.54%31.75%28.99%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Previsão 26.81%3.73odd justa
EV +0.522%
Vantagem +0.139%
Kelly +0.190%
Crescimento +0.001%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.75

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
25.93%26.75%26.85%27.86%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
3.203.483.503.7531.25%28.76%28.57%26.67%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Crystal Palace (Local): 43.64%; Middlesbrough (Visitante): 29.56%; Empate: 26.81%. Para Middlesbrough (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.38. 2 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.45, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +1.98%.

Odds das casas de apostas (51 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargemAtualização
Svenska Spel🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.88%EV -7.49%E -3.53%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.19%EV +1.98%E +0.573%K +0.806%G +0.016%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.93%EV +0.522%E +0.139%K +0.190%G +0.001%2.8%2026-09-08 18:30
ATG (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.88%EV -7.49%E -3.53%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.19%EV +1.98%E +0.573%K +0.806%G +0.016%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.93%EV +0.522%E +0.139%K +0.190%G +0.001%2.8%2026-09-08 18:30
1xBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.85%EV -4.00%E -1.82%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 29.06%EV -1.87%E -0.562%K -0.805%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 27.10%EV -4.57%E -1.28%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-08 18:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.74%EV -4.00%E -1.82%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.16%EV -2.46%E -0.745%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.10%EV -4.84%E -1.36%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-08 18:40
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -6.18%E -2.88%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -2.46%E -0.745%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -8.86%E -2.61%K -3.69%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-08 18:15
betPARX🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -10.55%E -5.14%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.25%EV -2.46%E -0.745%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -4.84%E -1.36%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-08 18:34
Unibet (NL)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -10.55%E -5.14%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.25%EV -2.46%E -0.745%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -4.84%E -1.36%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-08 18:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -10.55%E -5.14%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.25%EV -2.46%E -0.745%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -4.84%E -1.36%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-08 18:30
Grosvenor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -10.55%E -5.14%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.25%EV -2.46%E -0.745%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -4.84%E -1.36%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-08 18:30
Casumo🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -10.55%E -5.14%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.25%EV -2.46%E -0.745%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -4.84%E -1.36%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-08 18:30
Unibet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -10.55%E -5.14%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.25%EV -2.46%E -0.745%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.26%EV -4.84%E -1.36%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-08 18:30
Betsson🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.77%EV -6.18%E -2.88%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -3.94%E -1.21%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -7.52%E -2.18%K -3.07%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-08 18:30
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.52%EV -8.36%E -3.98%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -3.94%E -1.21%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -6.18%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 18:40
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.18%E -2.88%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.72%EV -3.94%E -1.21%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.86%EV -10.20%E -3.04%K -4.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-08 18:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.24%EV -10.98%E -5.38%K -10.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -3.94%E -1.21%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.37%EV -6.18%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-08 18:30
TABtouch🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.24%EV -10.98%E -5.38%K -10.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -3.94%E -1.21%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.37%EV -6.18%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-08 18:30
BetRivers🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 46.10%EV -14.04%E -7.13%K -14.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.95%EV -3.94%E -1.21%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -6.18%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-08 18:29
Pinnacle🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.17%EV -2.69%E -1.21%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.71%EV -4.23%E -1.31%K -1.89%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.12%EV -4.84%E -1.36%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-08 18:40
betano_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -4.00%E -1.82%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -5.41%E -1.69%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -6.18%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-08 18:33
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -4.00%E -1.82%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -5.41%E -1.69%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -6.18%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-08 18:30
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.07%EV -6.18%E -2.88%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -5.41%E -1.69%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -3.50%E -0.972%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-08 18:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.07%EV -6.18%E -2.88%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -5.41%E -1.69%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -3.50%E -0.972%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-08 18:10
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.07%EV -6.18%E -2.88%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -5.41%E -1.69%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -3.50%E -0.972%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-08 18:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.74%EV -6.18%E -2.88%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.39%EV -5.41%E -1.69%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.18%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-08 18:25
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -10.55%E -5.14%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -5.41%E -1.69%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -6.18%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-08 18:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.85%EV -3.13%E -1.41%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.20%EV -6.89%E -2.19%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.95%EV -5.38%E -1.52%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-08 18:10
LowVig.ag🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.85%EV -3.13%E -1.41%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.20%EV -6.89%E -2.19%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.95%EV -5.38%E -1.52%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-08 18:10
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.59%EV -3.13%E -1.41%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -6.89%E -2.19%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -7.52%E -2.18%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-08 18:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.54%EV -6.18%E -2.88%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -6.89%E -2.19%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -6.18%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-08 18:10
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.54%EV -6.18%E -2.88%K -5.38%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -6.89%E -2.19%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -6.18%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-08 18:10
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -4.00%E -1.82%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -8.37%E -2.70%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -3.50%E -0.972%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-08 18:40
Coolbet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.43%EV -5.31%E -2.45%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -8.37%E -2.70%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.18%EV -3.50%E -0.972%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-08 18:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -4.00%E -1.82%K -3.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -8.37%E -2.70%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -6.18%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-08 18:35
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.74%EV -8.36%E -3.98%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.63%EV -8.37%E -2.70%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -7.52%E -2.18%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-08 18:35
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -8.36%E -3.98%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -8.37%E -2.70%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -8.86%E -2.61%K -3.69%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-08 18:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%EV -8.36%E -3.98%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -8.37%E -2.70%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -12.88%E -3.96%K -5.72%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-08 18:30
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%EV -8.36%E -3.98%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -8.37%E -2.70%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -12.88%E -3.96%K -5.72%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-08 18:15
NetBet (FR)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.57%EV -9.67%E -4.67%K -9.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.10%EV -8.37%E -2.70%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -11.54%E -3.50%K -5.02%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-08 18:40
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -10.55%E -5.14%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -8.37%E -2.70%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -14.22%E -4.44%K -6.46%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-08 18:15
LiveScore Bet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.10%EV -14.47%E -7.38%K -15.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.51%EV -8.37%E -2.70%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.39%EV -10.20%E -3.04%K -4.34%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-08 18:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 45.10%EV -14.47%E -7.38%K -15.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.51%EV -8.37%E -2.70%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.39%EV -10.20%E -3.04%K -4.34%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-08 18:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.23%EV -14.91%E -7.65%K -15.69%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.45%EV -8.37%E -2.70%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.33%EV -10.20%E -3.04%K -4.34%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-08 18:30
LeoVegas🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.30%EV -7.49%E -3.53%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.10%EV -9.85%E -3.23%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.61%EV -7.52%E -2.18%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-08 18:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.70%EV -8.36%E -3.98%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -9.85%E -3.23%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -6.18%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-08 18:25
PlayUp🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 42.74%EV -7.49%E -3.53%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.21%EV -11.33%E -3.78%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.05%EV -10.20%E -3.04%K -4.34%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-08 18:40
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -8.36%E -3.98%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -11.33%E -3.78%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -8.86%E -2.61%K -3.69%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-08 18:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -8.36%E -3.98%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -11.33%E -3.78%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -8.86%E -2.61%K -3.69%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-08 18:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -8.36%E -3.98%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -11.33%E -3.78%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -8.86%E -2.61%K -3.69%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-08 18:15
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -8.36%E -3.98%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -11.33%E -3.78%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -8.86%E -2.61%K -3.69%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-08 18:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.91%EV -10.55%E -5.14%K -10.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -11.33%E -3.78%K -5.66%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.09%EV -7.52%E -2.18%K -3.07%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-08 18:25
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.29%EV -10.55%E -5.14%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.60%EV -14.28%E -4.92%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.10%EV -8.86%E -2.61%K -3.69%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-08 18:20
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (4)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteEmpateMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.59%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.81%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.61%0.6%2026-09-08 18:40
Matchbook◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.42%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.69%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.89%1.0%2026-09-08 18:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.64%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.58%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.78%1.4%2026-09-08 18:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.64%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.58%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.78%1.4%2026-09-08 18:40