Language:English
Chelsea v Luton
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Chelsea (Local)
Prediction 75.74%1.32fair odd
EV -2.30%
Edge -1.78%
Kelly -7.93%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.29
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.22%75.61%75.95%77.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.181.221.221.2984.75%81.88%81.97%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Luton (Visit)
Prediction 8.65%11.56fair odd
EV +5.99%
Edge +0.489%
Kelly +0.533%
Growth +0.032%
assuming max odds 12.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.53%8.65%8.60%10.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.5010.6210.5012.2511.76%9.41%9.52%8.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 15.61%6.41fair odd
EV +5.37%
Edge +0.796%
Kelly +0.934%
Growth +0.050%
assuming max odds 6.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.20%15.74%15.46%17.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.205.966.006.7519.23%16.77%16.67%14.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Chelsea (Local): 75.74%; Luton (Visit): 8.65%; Draw: 15.61%. For Luton (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.56. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.99%.
Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.67%EV -5.33%E -4.26%K -21.32%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.13%EV -9.15%E -0.871%K -0.963%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.20%EV +5.37%E +0.796%K +0.934%G +0.050% | 4.3% | 2026-08-13 16:14 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.31%EV -5.33%E -4.26%K -21.32%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.05%EV +3.83%E +0.319%K +0.348%G +0.013% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.64%EV +3.03%E +0.459%K +0.541%G +0.016% | 3.5% | 2026-08-13 03:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.91%EV -5.33%E -4.26%K -21.32%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -13.47%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV +1.47%E +0.226%K +0.267%G +0.004% | 5.4% | 2026-08-13 04:08 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.91%EV -5.33%E -4.26%K -21.32%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -13.47%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.60%EV +1.47%E +0.226%K +0.267%G +0.004% | 5.4% | 2026-08-13 04:09 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.12%EV -9.12%E -7.60%K -45.58%G +0.000% | 11.11I 9.00%NM 8.33%EV -3.87%E -0.348%K -0.383%G +0.000% | 6.36I 15.72%NM 14.55%EV -0.717%E -0.113%K -0.134%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-12 10:54 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.99%EV -5.33%E -4.26%K -21.32%G +0.000% | 12.25I 8.16%NM 7.86%EV +5.99%E +0.489%K +0.533%G +0.032% | 6.35I 15.75%NM 15.16%EV -0.873%E -0.138%K -0.163%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-17 03:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.11%EV -7.60%E -6.23%K -34.55%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.84%EV +3.83%E +0.319%K +0.348%G +0.013% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.05%EV -2.43%E -0.389%K -0.464%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-13 03:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.25%EV -6.09%E -4.91%K -25.36%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV -17.80%E -1.87%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.93%EV -2.43%E -0.389%K -0.464%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-13 04:09 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.25%EV -6.09%E -4.91%K -25.36%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.82%EV -17.80%E -1.87%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.93%EV -2.43%E -0.389%K -0.464%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-13 04:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.99%EV -8.36%E -6.91%K -39.80%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.10%EV -0.495%E -0.043%K -0.047%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.91%EV -2.43%E -0.389%K -0.464%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-12 10:54 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.39%EV -9.12%E -7.60%K -45.58%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -4.82%E -0.438%K -0.482%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.28%EV -6.34%E -1.06%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-08-15 15:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 77.22%EV -10.63%E -9.01%K -59.06%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%EV +3.83%E +0.319%K +0.348%G +0.013% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.19%EV -6.34%E -1.06%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-17 11:07 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.39%EV -10.63%E -9.01%K -59.06%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.58%EV -9.15%E -0.871%K -0.963%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.02%EV -6.34%E -1.06%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-08-12 10:54 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.95%EV -7.60%E -6.23%K -34.55%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.14%EV -13.47%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.90%EV -10.24%E -1.78%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-13 04:11 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.16%EV -9.12%E -7.60%K -45.58%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 7.95%EV -0.495%E -0.043%K -0.047%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.89%EV -10.24%E -1.78%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-13 16:18 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.16%EV -9.12%E -7.60%K -45.58%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 7.95%EV -0.495%E -0.043%K -0.047%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.89%EV -10.24%E -1.78%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-08-13 16:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.63%EV -7.60%E -6.23%K -34.55%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.11%EV -13.47%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.26%EV -12.58%E -2.25%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-08-13 16:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.34%EV -2.30%E -1.78%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.46%EV -13.47%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.20%EV -14.14%E -2.57%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-14 00:24 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.74%EV -7.60%E -6.23%K -34.55%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.68%EV -9.15%E -0.871%K -0.963%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.58%EV -14.14%E -2.57%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-08-13 16:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 73.73%EV -9.87%E -8.30%K -51.96%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.32%EV -26.45%E -3.11%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 15.95%EV -14.14%E -2.57%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 14.0% | 2026-08-13 16:19 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.48%EV -5.33%E -4.26%K -21.32%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.19%EV -13.47%E -1.35%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.33%EV -17.26%E -3.26%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-08-12 07:24 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.27%EV -9.12%E -7.60%K -45.58%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.53%EV +3.83%E +0.319%K +0.348%G +0.013% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.20%EV -18.04%E -3.44%K -4.25%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-08-17 11:07 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 73.22%EV -10.63%E -9.01%K -59.06%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.16%EV -26.45%E -3.11%K -3.53%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 16.62%EV -18.83%E -3.62%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 15.7% | 2026-08-13 16:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.