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Bradford City v Burnley

2026-08-25 15:00 UTC — EFL Cup

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bradford City (Local)

Prediction 23.27%4.30fair odd
EV -2.26%
Edge -0.537%
Kelly -0.705%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.51%23.27%23.27%23.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.004.004.2026.32%25.00%25.00%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Burnley (Visit)

Prediction 50.87%1.97fair odd
EV -5.89%
Edge -3.19%
Kelly -6.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.30%50.87%50.87%51.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.831.841.8555.56%54.55%54.35%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.86%3.87fair odd
EV -4.32%
Edge -1.17%
Kelly -1.60%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.55%25.86%25.86%26.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.603.603.7028.57%27.78%27.78%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Bradford City (Local): 23.27%; Burnley (Visit): 50.87%; Draw: 25.86%. For Bradford City (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.30. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 4.20, with an expected value of -2.26%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betr (AU)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -2.26%E -0.537%K -0.705%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.94%EV -7.42%E -4.08%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -4.32%E -1.17%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-11 12:19
SportsBet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -6.91%E -1.73%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -5.89%E -3.19%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -6.91%E -1.92%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-11 12:09
Sky Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -6.91%E -1.73%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -5.89%E -3.19%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -6.91%E -1.92%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-11 12:15
Paddy Power🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.40%EV -6.91%E -1.73%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.60%EV -5.89%E -3.19%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.00%EV -6.91%E -1.92%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-11 12:14
FanDuel🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -6.91%E -1.73%K -2.30%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.87%EV -6.91%E -3.78%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -6.91%E -1.92%K -2.66%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-11 12:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -11.56%E -3.04%K -4.13%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.30%EV -8.44%E -4.69%K -10.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -9.50%E -2.71%K -3.80%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-11 12:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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