Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Barnsley v Crewe Alexandra

Inicio: 2026-08-25 18:45 UTC

Final: Barnsley 3–2 Crewe Alexandra

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

50 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Barnsley (Local)

Predicción 56.18%1.78momio equitativo
EV -3.36%
Ventaja -1.96%
Kelly -4.67%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.72

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.82%56.35%56.16%59.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.531.631.621.7265.36%61.32%61.73%58.14%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Crewe Alexandra (Visitante)

Predicción 20.29%4.93momio equitativo
EV -0.577%
Ventaja -0.118%
Kelly -0.148%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.77%20.16%20.31%20.96%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.304.634.604.9023.26%21.59%21.74%20.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 23.53%4.25momio equitativo
EV -1.19%
Ventaja -0.284%
Kelly -0.373%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
21.62%23.50%23.52%25.28%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.603.984.004.2027.78%25.15%25.00%23.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Barnsley (Local): 56.18%; Crewe Alexandra (Visitante): 20.29%; Empate: 23.53%. Para Crewe Alexandra (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.93. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 4.90, con un valor esperado de -0.577%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (50 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Marathon Bet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 56.01%EV -3.36%E -1.96%K -4.67%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.50%EV -4.63%E -0.986%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.50%EV -3.55%E -0.865%K -1.14%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-25 18:19
Pinnacle🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.77%EV -3.36%E -1.96%K -4.67%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.58%EV -0.577%E -0.118%K -0.148%G +0.000%3.89I 25.71%NM 24.66%EV -8.49%E -2.18%K -2.94%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-25 18:24
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.05%EV -4.49%E -2.64%K -6.41%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.71%EV -6.66%E -1.45%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.24%EV -3.55%E -0.865%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-25 18:28
betano_uk🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.05%EV -4.49%E -2.64%K -6.41%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.71%EV -6.66%E -1.45%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.24%EV -3.55%E -0.865%K -1.14%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-25 18:29
Coolbet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -4.49%E -2.64%K -6.41%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -8.69%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -5.90%E -1.47%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-25 18:04
BetOnline.ag🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.28%EV -5.05%E -2.99%K -7.32%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.24%EV -4.63%E -0.986%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.48%EV -4.72%E -1.17%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-25 18:24
LowVig.ag🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.28%EV -5.05%E -2.99%K -7.32%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.24%EV -4.63%E -0.986%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.48%EV -4.72%E -1.17%K -1.55%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-25 18:24
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.23%EV -5.05%E -2.99%K -7.32%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.01%EV -3.62%E -0.762%K -0.965%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.76%EV -5.90%E -1.47%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-25 18:14
SportsBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.92%EV -5.61%E -3.34%K -8.25%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.99%EV -4.63%E -0.986%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -8.25%E -2.12%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-25 18:09
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.64%EV -6.17%E -3.70%K -9.21%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.71%EV -2.61%E -0.543%K -0.686%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV -5.90%E -1.47%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-25 18:14
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.16%EV -6.17%E -3.70%K -9.21%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.39%EV -6.66%E -1.45%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -5.90%E -1.47%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-25 18:14
Neds🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.16%EV -6.17%E -3.70%K -9.21%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.39%EV -6.66%E -1.45%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -5.90%E -1.47%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-25 18:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.16%EV -6.17%E -3.70%K -9.21%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.39%EV -6.66%E -1.45%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -5.90%E -1.47%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-25 18:14
Unibet (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.16%EV -6.17%E -3.70%K -9.21%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.39%EV -6.66%E -1.45%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -5.90%E -1.47%K -1.97%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-25 18:24
FanDuel🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.07%EV -6.17%E -3.70%K -9.21%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.92%EV -4.63%E -0.986%K -1.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.01%EV -8.25%E -2.12%K -2.85%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-25 18:09
Betway🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.91%EV -6.17%E -3.70%K -9.21%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -8.69%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -5.90%E -1.47%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-25 18:29
1xBet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 56.26%EV -6.73%E -4.06%K -10.20%G +0.000%4.54I 22.03%NM 20.57%EV -7.88%E -1.74%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 23.17%EV -5.19%E -1.29%K -1.71%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-25 18:39
Betr (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.46%EV -7.30%E -4.42%K -11.22%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.96%EV -3.62%E -0.762%K -0.965%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.58%EV -1.19%E -0.284%K -0.373%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-25 17:44
PlayUp🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.95%EV -7.30%E -4.42%K -11.22%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.43%EV -3.62%E -0.762%K -0.965%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.62%EV -11.78%E -3.14%K -4.28%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-25 18:19
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.15%EV -7.30%E -4.42%K -11.22%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.57%EV -5.65%E -1.21%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -15.31%E -4.25%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-25 17:59
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.15%EV -7.30%E -4.42%K -11.22%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 19.57%EV -5.65%E -1.21%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -15.31%E -4.25%K -5.89%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-25 18:00
Bovada🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.19%EV -7.86%E -4.79%K -12.28%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.48%EV -8.69%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.33%EV -7.08%E -1.79%K -2.40%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-25 18:38
LeoVegas🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.93%EV -7.86%E -4.79%K -12.28%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.85%EV -10.72%E -2.44%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.22%EV -7.08%E -1.79%K -2.40%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-25 18:24
Unibet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.26%EV -8.98%E -5.54%K -14.49%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.26%EV -0.577%E -0.118%K -0.148%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -1.19%E -0.284%K -0.373%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-25 18:34
betPARX🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.26%EV -8.98%E -5.54%K -14.49%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.26%EV -0.577%E -0.118%K -0.148%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -1.19%E -0.284%K -0.373%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-25 18:34
Svenska Spel🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.26%EV -8.98%E -5.54%K -14.49%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.26%EV -0.577%E -0.118%K -0.148%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -1.19%E -0.284%K -0.373%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-25 18:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.26%EV -8.98%E -5.54%K -14.49%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.26%EV -0.577%E -0.118%K -0.148%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -1.19%E -0.284%K -0.373%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-25 18:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.26%EV -8.98%E -5.54%K -14.49%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.26%EV -0.577%E -0.118%K -0.148%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -1.19%E -0.284%K -0.373%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-25 18:35
Casumo🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.26%EV -8.98%E -5.54%K -14.49%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.26%EV -0.577%E -0.118%K -0.148%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -1.19%E -0.284%K -0.373%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-25 18:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.26%EV -8.98%E -5.54%K -14.49%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.26%EV -0.577%E -0.118%K -0.148%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -1.19%E -0.284%K -0.373%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-25 18:35
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.66%EV -8.98%E -5.54%K -14.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.40%EV -8.69%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.95%EV -5.90%E -1.47%K -1.97%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-25 18:39
theScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.33%EV -8.98%E -5.54%K -14.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.28%EV -8.69%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.40%EV -8.25%E -2.12%K -2.85%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-25 18:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.80%EV -8.98%E -5.54%K -14.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -8.69%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.11%EV -11.78%E -3.14%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-25 18:35
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.80%EV -8.98%E -5.54%K -14.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.09%EV -8.69%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.11%EV -11.78%E -3.14%K -4.28%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-25 18:09
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.73%EV -8.98%E -5.54%K -14.49%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.52%EV -10.72%E -2.44%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.76%EV -10.60%E -2.79%K -3.79%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-25 18:19
Sky Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 54.82%EV -8.98%E -5.54%K -14.49%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.51%EV -12.14%E -2.80%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.67%EV -15.31%E -4.25%K -5.89%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-25 18:09
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.88%EV -9.54%E -5.93%K -15.64%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.45%EV -10.72%E -2.44%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.67%EV -10.60%E -2.79%K -3.79%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-25 18:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.88%EV -9.54%E -5.93%K -15.64%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.45%EV -10.72%E -2.44%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.67%EV -10.60%E -2.79%K -3.79%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-25 18:19
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.88%EV -9.54%E -5.93%K -15.64%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.45%EV -10.72%E -2.44%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.67%EV -10.60%E -2.79%K -3.79%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-25 18:19
NetBet (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.08%EV -9.54%E -5.93%K -15.64%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.62%EV -12.75%E -2.97%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.30%EV -14.13%E -3.87%K -5.33%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-25 18:30
TABtouch🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -11.79%E -7.51%K -20.69%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.29%EV -3.62%E -0.762%K -0.965%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.35%EV -3.55%E -0.865%K -1.14%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-25 18:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -11.79%E -7.51%K -20.69%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.29%EV -3.62%E -0.762%K -0.965%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.35%EV -3.55%E -0.865%K -1.14%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-25 18:35
Grosvenor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -11.79%E -7.51%K -20.69%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.29%EV -3.62%E -0.762%K -0.965%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.35%EV -3.55%E -0.865%K -1.14%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-25 18:30
BetRivers🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.92%EV -11.79%E -7.51%K -20.69%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.35%EV -4.63%E -0.986%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -5.90%E -1.47%K -1.97%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-25 18:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 58.20%EV -12.35%E -7.92%K -22.06%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.18%EV -8.69%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.62%EV -1.19%E -0.284%K -0.373%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-25 18:24
Tipico (DE)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.33%EV -12.91%E -8.33%K -23.48%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.77%EV -0.577%E -0.118%K -0.148%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -1.19%E -0.284%K -0.373%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-25 17:49
Winamax (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 57.64%EV -13.48%E -8.75%K -24.96%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.17%EV -10.72%E -2.44%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.19%EV -5.90%E -1.47%K -1.97%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-25 18:24
Virgin Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.73%EV -14.04%E -9.18%K -26.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.63%EV -8.69%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.65%EV -8.25%E -2.12%K -2.85%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-25 18:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.73%EV -14.04%E -9.18%K -26.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.63%EV -8.69%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.65%EV -8.25%E -2.12%K -2.85%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-25 18:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 57.73%EV -14.04%E -9.18%K -26.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.63%EV -8.69%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.65%EV -8.25%E -2.12%K -2.85%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-25 18:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎1.76I 56.82%NM 56.78%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.99%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.24%0.1%2026-08-25 18:39
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.77I 56.50%NM 56.00%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.82%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.18%0.9%2026-08-25 18:39
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.76I 56.82%NM 55.91%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.08%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.00%1.6%2026-08-25 18:39
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.76I 56.82%NM 55.91%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.08%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.00%1.6%2026-08-25 18:39