The School of Odds
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Watford v Preston North End

2026-09-08 18:45 UTC — Championship

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Watford (Local)

Prediction 46.69%2.14fair odd
EV -2.89%
Edge -1.39%
Kelly -2.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.57%46.69%47.20%47.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.842.002.022.0854.35%49.99%49.50%48.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Preston North End (Visit)

Prediction 26.39%3.79fair odd
EV -3.66%
Edge -1.00%
Kelly -1.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.17%26.39%26.20%27.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.483.503.6531.75%28.74%28.57%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.92%3.71fair odd
EV -3.09%
Edge -0.859%
Kelly -1.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.33%26.92%26.60%27.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.393.403.6030.77%29.53%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Watford (Local): 46.69%; Preston North End (Visit): 26.39%; Draw: 26.92%. For Watford (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.14. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.08, with an expected value of -2.89%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.21%EV -2.89%E -1.39%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.33%EV -3.66%E -1.00%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.46%EV -5.78%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-03 12:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.21%EV -2.89%E -1.39%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.33%EV -3.66%E -1.00%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.46%EV -5.78%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-03 12:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.21%EV -2.89%E -1.39%K -2.68%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.33%EV -3.66%E -1.00%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.46%EV -5.78%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-03 12:10
Unibet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.81%EV -4.76%E -2.33%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -7.62%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -8.48%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-03 12:05
Unibet (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.81%EV -4.76%E -2.33%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -7.62%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -8.48%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-03 12:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.81%EV -4.76%E -2.33%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -7.62%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -8.48%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-03 12:10
Casumo🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.81%EV -4.76%E -2.33%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -7.62%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -8.48%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-03 12:10
betPARX🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.81%EV -4.76%E -2.33%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -7.62%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -8.48%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-03 12:10
Bally Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.81%EV -4.76%E -2.33%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.70%EV -7.62%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -8.48%E -2.49%K -3.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-03 12:05
Codere (IT)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.29%EV -5.69%E -2.82%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.17%EV -3.66%E -1.00%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.54%EV -3.09%E -0.859%K -1.19%G +0.000%4.7%2026-09-03 11:24
GTbets🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.66%EV -5.69%E -2.82%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.40%EV -5.77%E -1.62%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -5.78%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-03 11:34
Grosvenor🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.87%EV -5.69%E -2.82%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.47%EV -7.62%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.66%EV -9.82%E -2.93%K -4.18%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-03 12:10
BetRivers🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -6.63%E -3.31%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -10.26%E -3.02%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -11.17%E -3.38%K -4.86%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-03 12:05
TABtouch🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -6.63%E -3.31%K -6.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -10.26%E -3.02%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -11.17%E -3.38%K -4.86%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-03 12:05
1xBet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 46.68%EV -7.09%E -3.56%K -7.17%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.39%EV -7.09%E -2.01%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.93%EV -7.13%E -2.07%K -2.91%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-03 11:29
LeoVegas🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.92%EV -7.56%E -3.82%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -7.62%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -5.78%E -1.65%K -2.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-03 11:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.63%EV -7.56%E -3.82%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.57%EV -10.26%E -3.02%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.80%EV -12.51%E -3.85%K -5.56%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-03 12:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 45.63%EV -7.56%E -3.82%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.57%EV -10.26%E -3.02%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.80%EV -12.51%E -3.85%K -5.56%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-03 12:05
PMU (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.75%EV -8.03%E -4.07%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -10.26%E -3.02%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.73%EV -12.51%E -3.85%K -5.56%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-03 12:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 47.06%EV -12.70%E -6.79%K -14.59%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.27%EV -11.58%E -3.46%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.67%EV -11.17%E -3.38%K -4.86%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-03 11:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 47.20%EV -13.16%E -7.08%K -15.31%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.20%EV -11.58%E -3.46%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.60%EV -11.17%E -3.38%K -4.86%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-03 11:19
Winamax (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 46.51%EV -14.10%E -7.66%K -16.78%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.17%EV -16.86%E -5.35%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.33%EV -12.51%E -3.85%K -5.56%G +0.000%16.9%2026-09-03 11:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.90I 52.63%NM 46.29%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.65%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.06%13.7%2026-09-03 11:20
Kalshi◎1.92I 52.08%NM 45.66%3.03I 33.00%NM 28.93%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.41%14.1%2026-09-03 13:20