The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Queens Park Rangers v Derby County

2026-10-14 18:45 UTC — Championship

Head to Head

46 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Queens Park Rangers (Local)

Prediction 53.35%1.87fair odd
EV -2.37%
Edge -1.29%
Kelly -2.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.95%53.40%53.32%55.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.751.751.8362.50%57.17%57.14%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Derby County (Visit)

Prediction 21.52%4.65fair odd
EV -0.347%
Edge -0.075%
Kelly -0.095%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.56%21.52%21.47%22.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.254.204.6325.97%23.54%23.81%21.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.13%3.98fair odd
EV +0.004%
Edge +0.001%
Kelly +0.001%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.84%25.08%25.20%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.683.653.9828.99%27.21%27.40%25.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Queens Park Rangers (Local): 53.35%; Derby County (Visit): 21.52%; Draw: 25.13%. For Derby County (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.65. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.75, producing a positive expected value of +2.24%.

Sportsbook Odds (46 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.49%EV -8.77%E -5.13%K -12.35%G +0.000%4.59I 21.79%NM 20.67%EV -1.21%E -0.263%K -0.336%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.84%EV +0.004%E +0.001%K +0.001%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 19:05
LowVig.ag🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.03%EV -7.70%E -4.45%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.63I 21.60%NM 20.56%EV -0.347%E -0.075%K -0.095%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.41%EV -2.01%E -0.514%K -0.692%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-10 16:49
BetOnline.ag🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.03%EV -7.70%E -4.45%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.63I 21.60%NM 20.56%EV -0.347%E -0.075%K -0.095%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.41%EV -2.01%E -0.514%K -0.692%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-10 16:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.70%EV -2.37%E -1.29%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.92%EV -5.30%E -1.20%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.38%EV -4.52%E -1.19%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-10 14:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.70%EV -2.37%E -1.29%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.92%EV -5.30%E -1.20%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.38%EV -4.52%E -1.19%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-10 14:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.70%EV -2.37%E -1.29%K -2.85%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.92%EV -5.30%E -1.20%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.38%EV -4.52%E -1.19%K -1.61%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-10 15:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.82%EV -7.17%E -4.12%K -9.69%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.08%EV +2.24%E +0.471%K +0.596%G +0.013%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.10%EV -4.52%E -1.19%K -1.61%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-10 19:19
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.79%EV -5.57%E -3.15%K -7.23%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.16%EV -3.14%E -0.699%K -0.898%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -4.52%E -1.19%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-10 20:09
SportsBet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.12%EV -5.04%E -2.83%K -6.46%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.99%EV -7.45%E -1.73%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.88%EV -4.52%E -1.19%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-10 20:09
GTbets🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.92%EV -6.64%E -3.79%K -8.85%G +0.000%4.44I 22.52%NM 21.25%EV -4.44%E -0.999%K -1.29%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.83%EV -4.52%E -1.19%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-10 14:35
Bet Right🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.85%EV -5.04%E -2.83%K -6.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -9.60%E -2.29%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -4.52%E -1.19%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-10 20:10
Betr (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.85%EV -5.04%E -2.83%K -6.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -9.60%E -2.29%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -4.52%E -1.19%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-10 20:10
1xBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.47%EV -6.64%E -3.79%K -8.85%G +0.000%4.27I 23.42%NM 21.91%EV -8.10%E -1.90%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -4.52%E -1.19%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-10 15:05
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.27%EV -6.64%E -3.79%K -8.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -9.60%E -2.29%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.53%EV -4.52%E -1.19%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-10 20:09
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.94%EV -9.84%E -5.82%K -14.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -3.14%E -0.699%K -0.898%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.43%EV -4.52%E -1.19%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-10 19:09
Betway🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.97%EV -7.70%E -4.45%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -13.91%E -3.48%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.12%EV -4.52%E -1.19%K -1.61%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-10 20:09
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.19%EV -3.97%E -2.21%K -4.96%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.28%EV -3.14%E -0.699%K -0.898%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.53%EV -5.78%E -1.54%K -2.10%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-10 19:09
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.89%EV -6.64%E -3.79%K -8.85%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -3.14%E -0.699%K -0.898%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -5.78%E -1.54%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-10 16:00
betano_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.21%EV -7.70%E -4.45%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -9.60%E -2.29%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -7.03%E -1.90%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-10 20:09
Bet Victor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.21%EV -7.70%E -4.45%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -9.60%E -2.29%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -7.03%E -1.90%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-10 20:09
Winamax (DE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.65%EV -10.37%E -6.17%K -15.25%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.98%EV -11.75%E -2.87%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.36%EV -7.03%E -1.90%K -2.60%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-10 16:00
Unibet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.32%EV -5.04%E -2.83%K -6.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -9.60%E -2.29%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -8.29%E -2.27%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-10 15:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.32%EV -5.04%E -2.83%K -6.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -9.60%E -2.29%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -8.29%E -2.27%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-10 15:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.32%EV -5.04%E -2.83%K -6.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -9.60%E -2.29%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -8.29%E -2.27%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-10 15:00
Casumo🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.32%EV -5.04%E -2.83%K -6.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -9.60%E -2.29%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -8.29%E -2.27%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-10 15:01
betPARX🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.32%EV -5.04%E -2.83%K -6.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -9.60%E -2.29%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -8.29%E -2.27%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-10 15:01
Bally Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.32%EV -5.04%E -2.83%K -6.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -9.60%E -2.29%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -8.29%E -2.27%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-10 15:01
LeoVegas🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.38%EV -7.70%E -4.45%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.33%EV -6.80%E -1.57%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.30%EV -8.29%E -2.27%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-10 20:09
PlayUp🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.46%EV -6.64%E -3.79%K -8.85%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.39%EV -11.75%E -2.87%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.15%EV -8.29%E -2.27%K -3.13%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-10 20:10
NordicBet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.31%EV -3.44%E -1.90%K -4.24%G +0.000%4.41I 22.68%NM 21.47%EV -5.08%E -1.15%K -1.49%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 26.23%EV -9.29%E -2.57%K -3.56%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-10 20:10
Betsson🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -3.97%E -2.21%K -4.96%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -5.30%E -1.20%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -9.54%E -2.65%K -3.67%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-10 20:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.41%EV -5.57%E -3.15%K -7.23%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.83%EV -8.53%E -2.01%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -9.54%E -2.65%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-10 14:00
Grosvenor🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.27%EV -5.57%E -3.15%K -7.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.03%EV -9.60%E -2.29%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -9.54%E -2.65%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-10 14:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.37%EV -7.70%E -4.45%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.98%EV -5.30%E -1.20%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -9.54%E -2.65%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-10 16:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.37%EV -7.70%E -4.45%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.98%EV -5.30%E -1.20%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -9.54%E -2.65%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-10 16:55
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -6.64%E -3.79%K -8.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -9.60%E -2.29%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -9.54%E -2.65%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-10 20:10
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.55%EV -6.64%E -3.79%K -8.85%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -9.60%E -2.29%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -9.54%E -2.65%K -3.67%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-10 20:05
BetRivers🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.95%EV -6.10%E -3.47%K -8.03%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.30%EV -11.75%E -2.87%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.75%EV -10.80%E -3.04%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-10 14:55
TABtouch🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.95%EV -6.10%E -3.47%K -8.03%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.30%EV -11.75%E -2.87%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.75%EV -10.80%E -3.04%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-10 15:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.23%EV -7.17%E -4.12%K -9.69%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.17%EV -11.75%E -2.87%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.60%EV -10.80%E -3.04%K -4.24%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-10 18:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.04%EV -7.17%E -4.12%K -9.69%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.09%EV -11.75%E -2.87%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -12.06%E -3.44%K -4.82%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-10 18:39
ReBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 53.04%EV -9.84%E -5.82%K -14.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.34%EV -9.60%E -2.29%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.61%EV -12.06%E -3.44%K -4.82%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-10 16:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 53.40%EV -12.51%E -7.63%K -19.54%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.36%EV -11.75%E -2.87%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 25.24%EV -12.81%E -3.69%K -5.19%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-10 16:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 52.74%EV -11.97%E -7.26%K -18.42%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.03%EV -14.98%E -3.79%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.22%EV -13.31%E -3.86%K -5.43%G +0.000%14.9%2026-10-10 20:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 53.94%EV -14.64%E -9.15%K -24.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.05%EV -11.75%E -2.87%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.01%EV -13.31%E -3.86%K -5.43%G +0.000%15.9%2026-10-10 18:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 52.90%EV -13.57%E -8.38%K -21.89%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.26%EV -17.13%E -4.45%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.84%EV -13.31%E -3.86%K -5.43%G +0.000%16.7%2026-10-10 16:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.75I 57.14%NM 56.51%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.78%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.71%1.1%2026-10-10 19:10
Matchbook◎1.69I 59.17%NM 54.50%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.93%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.56%8.6%2026-10-10 19:25
Smarkets◎1.67I 59.88%NM 52.87%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.54%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.59%13.3%2026-10-10 16:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.25I 80.00%NM 43.09%1.25I 80.00%NM 43.09%3.90I 25.64%NM 13.81%85.6%2026-10-10 19:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.25I 80.00%NM 43.09%1.25I 80.00%NM 43.09%3.90I 25.64%NM 13.81%85.6%2026-10-10 19:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.25I 80.00%NM 43.09%1.25I 80.00%NM 43.09%3.90I 25.64%NM 13.81%85.6%2026-10-10 19:25