Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Lincoln City v Burnley

2026-10-24 14:00 UTC — Championship

Resultado del partido

42 corredores (10 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Lincoln City (Local)

Predicción 32.09%3.12momio equitativo
EV -0.507%
Ventaja -0.164%
Kelly -0.242%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
29.53%32.13%32.14%34.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.632.832.853.1038.02%35.35%35.09%32.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Burnley (Visitante)

Predicción 40.77%2.45momio equitativo
EV +3.96%
Ventaja +1.55%
Kelly +2.55%
Crecimiento +0.101%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.82%40.62%40.84%43.70%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.962.332.352.5551.02%42.90%42.55%39.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 27.14%3.68momio equitativo
EV -2.30%
Ventaja -0.640%
Kelly -0.886%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.21%27.25%27.02%28.28%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.153.373.383.6031.75%29.66%29.63%27.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Lincoln City (Local): 32.09%; Burnley (Visitante): 40.77%; Empate: 27.14%. Para Burnley (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.45. 3 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.55, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +3.96%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (42 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 34.11%EV -8.53%E -2.99%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.12%EV +3.96%E +1.55%K +2.55%G +0.101%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.77%EV -5.02%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.9%2026-10-17 17:10
ATG (SE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 34.11%EV -8.53%E -2.99%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.12%EV +3.96%E +1.55%K +2.55%G +0.101%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.77%EV -5.02%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.9%2026-10-17 17:10
Svenska Spel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 34.11%EV -8.53%E -2.99%K -4.61%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.12%EV +3.96%E +1.55%K +2.55%G +0.101%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.77%EV -5.02%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000%2.9%2026-10-17 17:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -11.74%E -4.27%K -6.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -0.118%E -0.048%K -0.082%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -7.73%E -2.27%K -3.22%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-17 17:10
Unibet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.97%EV -11.74%E -4.27%K -6.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.14%EV -0.118%E -0.048%K -0.082%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -9.09%E -2.71%K -3.87%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 17:10
Casumo🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.97%EV -11.74%E -4.27%K -6.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.14%EV -0.118%E -0.048%K -0.082%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -9.09%E -2.71%K -3.87%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 17:10
Unibet (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.97%EV -11.74%E -4.27%K -6.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.14%EV -0.118%E -0.048%K -0.082%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -9.09%E -2.71%K -3.87%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 17:10
betPARX🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.97%EV -11.74%E -4.27%K -6.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.14%EV -0.118%E -0.048%K -0.082%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -9.09%E -2.71%K -3.87%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 17:08
Bally Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.97%EV -11.74%E -4.27%K -6.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.14%EV -0.118%E -0.048%K -0.082%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -9.09%E -2.71%K -3.87%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 17:08
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -11.74%E -4.27%K -6.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -0.118%E -0.048%K -0.082%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -10.45%E -3.17%K -4.54%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-17 16:15
Grosvenor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.14%EV -13.35%E -4.94%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.93%EV -0.934%E -0.384%K -0.653%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -10.45%E -3.17%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-17 17:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.67%EV -6.93%E -2.39%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.47%EV -2.16%E -0.899%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.86%EV -7.73%E -2.27%K -3.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-17 16:55
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -11.74%E -4.27%K -6.71%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -2.16%E -0.899%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -11.80%E -3.63%K -5.25%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-17 16:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -11.74%E -4.27%K -6.71%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -2.16%E -0.899%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -11.80%E -3.63%K -5.25%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-17 16:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -11.74%E -4.27%K -6.71%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -2.16%E -0.899%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -11.80%E -3.63%K -5.25%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-17 16:10
Virgin Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.98%EV -13.35%E -4.94%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -2.16%E -0.899%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.80%EV -10.45%E -3.17%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-17 17:10
BetRivers🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.25%EV -14.95%E -5.64%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.82%EV -2.16%E -0.899%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -11.80%E -3.63%K -5.25%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-17 17:10
Unibet (NL)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.25%EV -14.95%E -5.64%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.82%EV -2.16%E -0.899%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -11.80%E -3.63%K -5.25%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-17 17:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.25%EV -14.95%E -5.64%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.82%EV -2.16%E -0.899%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -11.80%E -3.63%K -5.25%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-17 17:10
TABtouch🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.25%EV -14.95%E -5.64%K -9.06%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.82%EV -2.16%E -0.899%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -11.80%E -3.63%K -5.25%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-17 17:10
SportsBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.28%EV -5.32%E -1.80%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.52%EV -4.20%E -1.79%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.20%EV -5.02%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-17 15:00
PMU (FR)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.00%EV -15.59%E -5.93%K -9.57%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.05%EV -4.20%E -1.79%K -3.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -13.16%E -4.11%K -5.98%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-17 17:10
Pinnacle🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 32.17%EV -5.00%E -1.69%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.23%EV -5.83%E -2.52%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.60%EV -2.85%E -0.795%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-17 17:10
1xBet🎯2.89I 34.60%NM 32.35%EV -7.25%E -2.51%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 40.47%EV -5.83%E -2.52%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.18%EV -6.65%E -1.93%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-17 16:10
Coolbet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.24%EV -5.32%E -1.80%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.35%EV -6.23%E -2.71%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -2.30%E -0.640%K -0.886%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-17 18:45
Betr (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.00%EV -5.32%E -1.80%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.04%EV -6.23%E -2.71%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.97%EV -5.02%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-17 18:45
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.76%EV -7.57%E -2.63%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.23%E -2.71%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -2.30%E -0.640%K -0.886%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-17 18:45
Bet Right🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.49%EV -6.93%E -2.39%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.97%EV -6.23%E -2.71%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.54%EV -3.66%E -1.03%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-17 18:45
FanDuel🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -6.93%E -2.39%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -6.23%E -2.71%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -5.02%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-17 15:00
Sky Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.27%EV -7.57%E -2.63%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -6.23%E -2.71%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -7.73%E -2.27%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-17 15:05
Marathon Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.31%EV -7.57%E -2.63%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 40.64%EV -6.64%E -2.90%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.05%EV -6.65%E -1.93%K -2.72%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-17 16:05
Fanatics🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -3.72%E -1.24%K -1.86%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -8.27%E -3.68%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -5.02%E -1.43%K -2.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-17 15:20
PlayUp🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -6.93%E -2.39%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -8.27%E -3.68%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -7.73%E -2.27%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-17 16:55
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -10.14%E -3.62%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -8.27%E -3.68%K -6.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -7.73%E -2.27%K -3.22%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-17 15:00
Unibet (UK)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -0.507%E -0.164%K -0.242%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -10.31%E -4.69%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -7.73%E -2.27%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-17 16:05
LeoVegas🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -3.72%E -1.24%K -1.86%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -10.31%E -4.69%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -7.73%E -2.27%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-17 16:10
picklebet_au🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -3.72%E -1.24%K -1.86%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -10.31%E -4.69%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -10.45%E -3.17%K -4.54%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-17 16:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -6.93%E -2.39%K -3.65%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -12.35%E -5.74%K -10.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -7.73%E -2.27%K -3.22%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-17 16:05
ReBet🎯2.91I 34.36%NM 30.69%EV -6.61%E -2.27%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 41.74%EV -12.76%E -5.96%K -11.19%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 27.57%EV -12.07%E -3.73%K -5.39%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-17 16:05
Betclic (FR)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.43%EV -7.57%E -2.63%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 42.34%EV -15.61%E -7.54%K -14.59%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 27.22%EV -12.62%E -3.92%K -5.68%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-17 16:04
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 31.18%EV -13.35%E -4.94%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.09%EV -18.46%E -9.23%K -18.46%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 26.73%EV -14.52%E -4.61%K -6.75%G +0.000%18.8%2026-10-17 16:05
Unibet (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 29.53%EV -6.93%E -2.39%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 43.70%EV -20.09%E -10.25%K -20.93%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.77%EV -13.16%E -4.11%K -5.98%G +0.000%16.8%2026-10-17 16:05
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi◎3.03I 33.00%NM 32.34%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.17%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.48%2.0%2026-10-17 16:55
Matchbook◎2.86I 34.97%NM 32.20%2.24I 44.64%NM 41.11%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.69%8.6%2026-10-17 16:05
Smarkets◎2.88I 34.72%NM 30.56%2.12I 47.17%NM 41.51%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.94%13.6%2026-10-17 16:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 46.81%1.35I 74.07%NM 38.83%3.65I 27.40%NM 14.36%90.8%2026-10-17 17:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 46.53%1.33I 75.19%NM 39.19%3.65I 27.40%NM 14.28%91.9%2026-10-17 17:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 35.11%1.35I 74.07%NM 29.13%1.10I 90.91%NM 35.75%154.3%2026-10-17 20:00
Arbitraje (12 combinaciones) +0.75%Unibet (UK) 3.10 (32.5%) / LeoVegas (SE) 2.55 (39.5%) / betfred_uk 3.60 (28.0%)Ver las 12 combinaciones
Lincoln City (Local)Burnley (Visitante)EmpateMargen
Unibet (UK)🎯 3.10 (32.5%)LeoVegas (SE)🎯 2.55 (39.5%)Coolbet🎯 3.60 (28.0%)+0.754%
Unibet (UK)🎯 3.10 (32.5%)LeoVegas (SE)🎯 2.55 (39.5%)betfred_uk🎯 3.60 (28.0%)+0.754%
Unibet (UK)🎯 3.10 (32.5%)ATG (SE)🎯 2.55 (39.5%)Coolbet🎯 3.60 (28.0%)+0.754%
Unibet (UK)🎯 3.10 (32.5%)ATG (SE)🎯 2.55 (39.5%)betfred_uk🎯 3.60 (28.0%)+0.754%
Unibet (UK)🎯 3.10 (32.5%)Svenska Spel🎯 2.55 (39.5%)Coolbet🎯 3.60 (28.0%)+0.754%
Unibet (UK)🎯 3.10 (32.5%)Svenska Spel🎯 2.55 (39.5%)betfred_uk🎯 3.60 (28.0%)+0.754%
Unibet (UK)🎯 3.10 (32.5%)LeoVegas (SE)🎯 2.55 (39.4%)Pinnacle🎯 3.58 (28.1%)+0.597%
Unibet (UK)🎯 3.10 (32.5%)ATG (SE)🎯 2.55 (39.4%)Pinnacle🎯 3.58 (28.1%)+0.597%
Unibet (UK)🎯 3.10 (32.5%)Svenska Spel🎯 2.55 (39.4%)Pinnacle🎯 3.58 (28.1%)+0.597%
Unibet (UK)🎯 3.10 (32.4%)LeoVegas (SE)🎯 2.55 (39.4%)Bet Right🎯 3.55 (28.3%)+0.359%
Unibet (UK)🎯 3.10 (32.4%)ATG (SE)🎯 2.55 (39.4%)Bet Right🎯 3.55 (28.3%)+0.359%
Unibet (UK)🎯 3.10 (32.4%)Svenska Spel🎯 2.55 (39.4%)Bet Right🎯 3.55 (28.3%)+0.359%