The School of Odds
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Derby County v Wrexham AFC

2026-10-10 14:00 UTC — Championship

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Derby County (Local)

Prediction 32.01%3.12fair odd
EV -3.98%
Edge -1.33%
Kelly -1.99%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.44%32.13%31.97%33.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.842.883.0038.46%35.15%34.72%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Wrexham AFC (Visit)

Prediction 39.41%2.54fair odd
EV -5.42%
Edge -2.26%
Kelly -3.87%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.63%39.31%39.44%40.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.122.332.382.4047.17%42.91%42.02%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.58%3.50fair odd
EV -2.82%
Edge -0.830%
Kelly -1.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.51%28.56%28.60%29.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.233.253.4033.33%30.99%30.77%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Derby County (Local): 32.01%; Wrexham AFC (Visit): 39.41%; Draw: 28.58%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.50. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.40, with an expected value of -2.82%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Codere (IT)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.74%EV -3.98%E -1.33%K -1.99%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.84%EV -5.81%E -2.43%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV -4.25%E -1.27%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-19 16:44
1xBet🎯2.96I 33.78%NM 31.57%EV -5.26%E -1.78%K -2.68%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.59%EV -6.99%E -2.96%K -5.14%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.84%EV -7.39%E -2.28%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-19 19:39
Marathon Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.53%EV -5.58%E -1.89%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 39.75%EV -7.78%E -3.32%K -5.81%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 28.71%EV -7.39%E -2.28%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-19 19:33
Fanatics🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -7.18%E -2.47%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -5.42%E -2.26%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -5.68%E -1.72%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-19 17:09
Unibet (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.99%EV -7.18%E -2.47%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.47%EV -7.39%E -3.14%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -7.11%E -2.19%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-19 16:44
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -7.18%E -2.47%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -6.20%E -2.61%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -11.40%E -3.68%K -5.43%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-19 16:55
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -7.18%E -2.47%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -6.20%E -2.61%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -11.40%E -3.68%K -5.43%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-19 16:54
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -7.18%E -2.47%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -6.20%E -2.61%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -11.40%E -3.68%K -5.43%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-19 16:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -7.18%E -2.47%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.63%EV -6.20%E -2.61%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.66%EV -11.40%E -3.68%K -5.43%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-19 16:55
betfred_uk🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.82%EV -7.82%E -2.71%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.38%EV -5.42%E -2.26%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.80%EV -2.82%E -0.830%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-19 16:59
LeoVegas🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.28%EV -7.82%E -2.71%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.56%EV -7.39%E -3.14%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -5.68%E -1.72%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-19 16:44
SportsBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -8.78%E -3.08%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.25%EV -5.42%E -2.26%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -2.82%E -0.830%K -1.18%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-19 16:59
Betr (AU)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -8.78%E -3.08%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.25%EV -5.42%E -2.26%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -2.82%E -0.830%K -1.18%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-19 16:59
FanDuel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -10.38%E -3.71%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -5.42%E -2.26%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -2.82%E -0.830%K -1.18%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-19 16:59
Sky Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -10.38%E -3.71%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -5.42%E -2.26%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -5.68%E -1.72%K -2.47%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-19 16:59
Winamax (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.20%EV -10.38%E -3.71%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.07%EV -11.33%E -5.03%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.74%EV -7.11%E -2.19%K -3.16%G +0.000%10.9%2026-09-19 16:44
ReBet🎯2.79I 35.84%NM 32.02%EV -10.70%E -3.83%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 39.53%EV -10.93%E -4.84%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 28.45%EV -10.25%E -3.27%K -4.79%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-19 16:44
Paddy Power🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -11.98%E -4.36%K -6.84%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -9.36%E -4.07%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -5.68%E -1.72%K -2.47%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-19 17:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.44%EV -11.98%E -4.36%K -6.84%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.21%EV -15.27%E -7.10%K -13.28%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.35%EV -12.83%E -4.20%K -6.26%G +0.000%15.7%2026-09-19 16:44
Betclic (FR)🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 31.67%EV -14.22%E -5.31%K -8.46%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 40.04%EV -16.45%E -7.76%K -14.69%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.29%EV -14.25%E -4.75%K -7.13%G +0.000%17.8%2026-09-19 16:47
Winamax (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 32.66%EV -16.78%E -6.45%K -10.49%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 39.50%EV -15.27%E -7.10%K -13.28%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 27.84%EV -12.83%E -4.20%K -6.26%G +0.000%17.8%2026-09-19 16:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 40.05%1.47I 68.03%NM 29.97%1.47I 68.03%NM 29.97%127.0%2026-09-19 19:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 40.05%1.47I 68.03%NM 29.97%1.47I 68.03%NM 29.97%127.0%2026-09-19 19:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.10I 90.91%NM 40.05%1.47I 68.03%NM 29.97%1.47I 68.03%NM 29.97%127.0%2026-09-19 19:20
Smarkets◎1.03I 97.09%NM 41.48%1.46I 68.49%NM 29.26%1.46I 68.49%NM 29.26%134.1%2026-09-19 19:20