Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

FC Midtjylland v FC Nordsjaelland

2026-09-07 17:00 UTC — Denmark Superliga

Resultado del partido

42 corredores (10 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

FC Midtjylland (Local)

Predicción 46.58%2.15momio equitativo
EV -4.50%
Ventaja -2.20%
Kelly -4.29%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.05

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
45.42%46.62%46.57%49.75%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.811.941.952.0555.25%51.56%51.28%48.78%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

FC Nordsjaelland (Visitante)

Predicción 28.38%3.52momio equitativo
EV +5.02%
Ventaja +1.36%
Kelly +1.86%
Crecimiento +0.093%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.95%28.39%28.38%30.30%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.003.313.303.7033.33%30.24%30.30%27.03%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 25.03%3.99momio equitativo
EV -1.12%
Ventaja -0.284%
Kelly -0.380%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.70%25.00%25.06%26.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.303.673.653.9530.30%27.27%27.40%25.32%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: FC Midtjylland (Local): 46.58%; FC Nordsjaelland (Visitante): 28.38%; Empate: 25.03%. Para FC Nordsjaelland (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 3.52. 6 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 3.70, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +5.02%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (42 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Svenska Spel🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.75%EV -10.09%E -5.23%K -10.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.95%EV +5.02%E +1.36%K +1.86%G +0.093%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.31%EV -1.12%E -0.284%K -0.380%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-01 02:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.75%EV -10.09%E -5.23%K -10.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.95%EV +5.02%E +1.36%K +1.86%G +0.093%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.31%EV -1.12%E -0.284%K -0.380%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-01 02:55
Unibet (NL)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.40%EV -12.42%E -6.61%K -14.12%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.16%EV +0.762%E +0.215%K +0.299%G +0.002%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.44%EV -4.88%E -1.28%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-01 02:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.40%EV -12.42%E -6.61%K -14.12%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.16%EV +0.762%E +0.215%K +0.299%G +0.002%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.44%EV -4.88%E -1.28%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-01 02:55
Casumo🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.40%EV -12.42%E -6.61%K -14.12%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.16%EV +0.762%E +0.215%K +0.299%G +0.002%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.44%EV -4.88%E -1.28%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-01 02:55
betPARX🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.40%EV -12.42%E -6.61%K -14.12%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.16%EV +0.762%E +0.215%K +0.299%G +0.002%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.44%EV -4.88%E -1.28%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-01 02:55
BetRivers🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.19%EV -12.89%E -6.89%K -14.81%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -0.657%E -0.188%K -0.263%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -6.13%E -1.63%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-01 02:55
Grosvenor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.95%EV -13.82%E -7.47%K -16.26%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.25%EV -2.08%E -0.602%K -0.847%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.81%EV -8.63%E -2.36%K -3.26%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-01 02:55
Unibet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.95%EV -13.82%E -7.47%K -16.26%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.25%EV -2.08%E -0.602%K -0.847%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.81%EV -8.63%E -2.36%K -3.26%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-01 02:50
1xBet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.10%EV -7.30%E -3.67%K -7.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -3.50%E -1.03%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.33%EV -7.38%E -1.99%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-31 17:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.35%EV -8.23%E -4.18%K -8.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -3.50%E -1.03%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.21%EV -7.38%E -1.99%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-31 17:30
TABtouch🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.03%EV -14.75%E -8.06%K -17.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -3.50%E -1.03%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.58%EV -8.63%E -2.36%K -3.26%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-31 19:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.03%EV -14.75%E -8.06%K -17.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.39%EV -3.50%E -1.03%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.58%EV -8.63%E -2.36%K -3.26%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-01 02:55
GTbets🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.30%EV -4.97%E -2.44%K -4.78%G +0.000%3.36I 29.76%NM 28.11%EV -4.63%E -1.38%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 25.59%EV -7.63%E -2.07%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-01 00:05
LiveScore Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 48.95%EV -15.68%E -8.67%K -19.36%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.45%EV -4.91%E -1.47%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.61%EV -9.88%E -2.75%K -3.80%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-01 02:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 48.95%EV -15.68%E -8.67%K -19.36%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.45%EV -4.91%E -1.47%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.61%EV -9.88%E -2.75%K -3.80%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-01 02:50
PMU (FR)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 48.95%EV -15.68%E -8.67%K -19.36%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.45%EV -4.91%E -1.47%K -2.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.61%EV -9.88%E -2.75%K -3.80%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-01 02:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.19%EV -6.83%E -3.42%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.60%EV -6.33%E -1.92%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -2.37%E -0.608%K -0.818%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-01 04:05
LeoVegas🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.18%EV -5.90%E -2.92%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.27%EV -6.33%E -1.92%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.56%EV -8.63%E -2.36%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-31 17:20
BetOnline.ag🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.18%EV -5.90%E -2.92%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.27%EV -6.33%E -1.92%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.56%EV -8.63%E -2.36%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-31 21:44
LowVig.ag🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.18%EV -5.90%E -2.92%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.27%EV -6.33%E -1.92%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.56%EV -8.63%E -2.36%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-31 21:44
Codere (IT)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.85%EV -5.90%E -2.92%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.06%EV -6.33%E -1.92%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.09%EV -11.13%E -3.14%K -4.37%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-31 14:55
Unibet (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -6.83%E -3.42%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -6.33%E -1.92%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -9.88%E -2.75%K -3.80%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-31 17:20
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -6.83%E -3.42%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -6.33%E -1.92%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -12.39%E -3.54%K -4.95%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-31 17:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -6.83%E -3.42%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -6.33%E -1.92%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -12.39%E -3.54%K -4.95%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-31 17:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -6.83%E -3.42%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -6.33%E -1.92%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -12.39%E -3.54%K -4.95%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-31 17:20
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -6.83%E -3.42%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -6.33%E -1.92%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -14.89%E -4.38%K -6.20%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-31 17:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.62%EV -9.16%E -4.70%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -7.75%E -2.39%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -2.37%E -0.608%K -0.818%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-31 17:20
Suprabets🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.85%EV -6.83%E -3.42%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 28.39%EV -8.32%E -2.58%K -3.73%G +0.000%3.56I 28.09%NM 25.76%EV -10.88%E -3.06%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-31 17:29
FanDuel🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.41%EV -9.16%E -4.70%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -9.17%E -2.87%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.70%EV -2.37%E -0.608%K -0.818%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-31 17:19
SportsBet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.99%EV -8.70%E -4.44%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.78%EV -9.17%E -2.87%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.23%EV -4.88%E -1.28%K -1.74%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-31 17:20
Fanatics🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.11%EV -9.16%E -4.70%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -9.17%E -2.87%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -4.88%E -1.28%K -1.74%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-31 19:33
Bet Right🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 46.83%EV -8.70%E -4.44%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -9.17%E -2.87%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.48%EV -6.13%E -1.63%K -2.23%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-01 04:05
betfred_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -9.16%E -4.70%K -9.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.17%E -2.87%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -6.13%E -1.63%K -2.23%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-31 17:20
Betsson🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.44%EV -4.50%E -2.20%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -12.01%E -3.87%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -4.88%E -1.28%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-31 19:29
NordicBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.44%EV -4.50%E -2.20%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -12.01%E -3.87%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -4.88%E -1.28%K -1.74%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-31 19:29
Unibet (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 45.95%EV -12.42%E -6.61%K -14.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.87%EV -12.01%E -3.87%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.18%EV -17.39%E -5.27%K -7.56%G +0.000%15.8%2026-08-31 14:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 45.75%EV -10.56%E -5.50%K -11.48%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.80%EV -13.43%E -4.40%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.46%EV -13.64%E -3.95%K -5.57%G +0.000%13.9%2026-08-31 14:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 45.42%EV -11.03%E -5.77%K -12.12%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.45%EV -13.43%E -4.40%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 26.13%EV -16.89%E -5.09%K -7.28%G +0.000%15.3%2026-08-31 23:54
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.45%EV -6.83%E -3.42%K -6.83%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.30%EV -14.85%E -4.95%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -6.13%E -1.63%K -2.23%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-31 19:29
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 45.82%EV -11.03%E -5.77%K -12.12%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.17%EV -14.85%E -4.95%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.01%EV -12.39%E -3.54%K -4.95%G +0.000%14.3%2026-08-31 17:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 45.62%EV -11.49%E -6.05%K -12.77%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.89%EV -14.85%E -4.95%K -7.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.49%EV -14.89%E -4.38%K -6.20%G +0.000%15.4%2026-08-31 14:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (4)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Smarkets1.95I 51.28%NM 45.02%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.78%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.20%13.9%2026-08-31 17:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%177.8%2026-08-31 15:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.33%177.8%2026-08-31 15:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%188.5%2026-08-31 15:20