La escuela de los momios

AGF Aarhus v FC Nordsjaelland

Inicio: 2026-04-10 17:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

AGF Aarhus (Local)

Predicción 50.88%1.97momio equitativo
EV -0.774%
Ventaja -0.397%
Kelly -0.815%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
48.34%50.91%50.78%53.34%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.661.801.801.9560.24%55.51%55.56%51.28%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

FC Nordsjaelland (Visitante)

Predicción 24.44%4.09momio equitativo
EV +4.84%
Ventaja +1.13%
Kelly +1.47%
Crecimiento +0.071%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.29

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.48%24.36%24.45%26.37%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.453.833.804.2928.99%26.13%26.32%23.31%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 24.68%4.05momio equitativo
EV -1.05%
Ventaja -0.262%
Kelly -0.349%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.01

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.47%24.74%24.77%26.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.303.733.754.0130.30%26.85%26.67%24.94%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle1.84I 54.35%NM 52.41%EV -6.37%E -3.46%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.29I 23.31%NM 22.48%EV +4.84%E +1.13%K +1.47%G +0.071%3.84I 26.04%NM 25.11%EV -5.24%E -1.37%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-10 16:50
ATG (SE)1.83I 54.64%NM 52.82%EV -6.88%E -3.76%K -8.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.01%EV +2.64%E +0.630%K +0.826%G +0.022%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17%EV -1.30%E -0.324%K -0.432%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-10 16:50
Svenska Spel1.83I 54.64%NM 52.82%EV -6.88%E -3.76%K -8.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.01%EV +2.64%E +0.630%K +0.826%G +0.022%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.17%EV -1.30%E -0.324%K -0.432%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-10 16:50
Unibet (NL)1.78I 56.18%NM 52.89%EV -9.42%E -5.29%K -12.08%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV +0.200%E +0.049%K +0.065%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -3.76%E -0.965%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-10 16:50
Unibet (SE)1.78I 56.18%NM 52.89%EV -9.42%E -5.29%K -12.08%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV +0.200%E +0.049%K +0.065%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -3.76%E -0.965%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-10 16:50
Casumo1.78I 56.18%NM 52.89%EV -9.42%E -5.29%K -12.08%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV +0.200%E +0.049%K +0.065%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -3.76%E -0.965%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-10 16:50
betPARX1.78I 56.18%NM 52.89%EV -9.42%E -5.29%K -12.08%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.96%EV +0.200%E +0.049%K +0.065%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.14%EV -3.76%E -0.965%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-10 16:50
BetRivers1.76I 56.82%NM 53.34%EV -10.44%E -5.93%K -13.74%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.90%EV +0.200%E +0.049%K +0.065%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.77%EV -2.53%E -0.641%K -0.858%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-10 16:20
FanDuel1.80I 55.56%NM 51.93%EV -8.41%E -4.67%K -10.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.80%EV +0.200%E +0.049%K +0.065%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -8.70%E -2.35%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-10 16:54
Suprabets1.80I 55.56%NM 51.83%EV -8.41%E -4.67%K -10.51%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV +0.200%E +0.049%K +0.065%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 25.42%EV -9.44%E -2.57%K -3.54%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-10 16:36
Coolbet1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -6.88%E -3.76%K -8.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.89%EV -2.24%E -0.561%K -0.748%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.89%EV -1.30%E -0.324%K -0.432%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-10 14:15
Unibet1.76I 56.82%NM 52.87%EV -10.44%E -5.93%K -13.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -2.24%E -0.561%K -0.748%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -3.76%E -0.965%K -1.30%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-10 16:50
Grosvenor1.76I 56.82%NM 52.87%EV -10.44%E -5.93%K -13.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -2.24%E -0.561%K -0.748%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.86%EV -3.76%E -0.965%K -1.30%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-10 16:50
TABtouch1.75I 57.14%NM 52.85%EV -10.95%E -6.26%K -14.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -2.24%E -0.561%K -0.748%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.02%EV -5.00%E -1.30%K -1.75%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-10 16:50
LeoVegas1.75I 57.14%NM 52.85%EV -10.95%E -6.26%K -14.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -2.24%E -0.561%K -0.748%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.02%EV -5.00%E -1.30%K -1.75%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-10 16:50
SportsBet1.75I 57.14%NM 51.99%EV -10.95%E -6.26%K -14.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.74%EV -2.24%E -0.561%K -0.748%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -11.17%E -3.10%K -4.29%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-10 16:55
DraftKings1.83I 54.64%NM 51.42%EV -6.88%E -3.76%K -8.29%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.82%EV -3.47%E -0.877%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.76%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-10 16:54
LeoVegas (SE)1.74I 57.47%NM 52.84%EV -11.46%E -6.59%K -15.49%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.28%EV -3.47%E -0.877%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.88%EV -5.00%E -1.30%K -1.75%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-10 16:50
Bovada1.77I 56.50%NM 51.91%EV -9.93%E -5.61%K -12.90%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.26%EV -3.47%E -0.877%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -8.70%E -2.35%K -3.22%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-10 16:37
LowVig.ag1.84I 54.35%NM 50.06%EV -6.37%E -3.46%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.62%EV -4.69%E -1.20%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -13.63%E -3.90%K -5.45%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-10 16:54
LiveScore Bet1.72I 58.14%NM 52.81%EV -12.48%E -7.25%K -17.33%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.29%EV -4.69%E -1.20%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -6.23%E -1.64%K -2.23%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-10 16:50
Virgin Bet1.70I 58.82%NM 52.93%EV -13.50%E -7.94%K -19.28%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.07%EV -4.69%E -1.20%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.00%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.71%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-10 16:50
Marathon Bet1.85I 54.05%NM 50.40%EV -5.86%E -3.17%K -6.90%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.41%EV -6.64%E -1.74%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.20%EV -8.70%E -2.35%K -3.22%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-10 16:54
Unibet (UK)1.84I 54.35%NM 51.12%EV -6.37%E -3.46%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.76%EV -7.13%E -1.88%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -3.76%E -0.965%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-10 14:30
Betr (AU)1.82I 54.95%NM 51.40%EV -7.39%E -4.06%K -9.01%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -7.13%E -1.88%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -3.76%E -0.965%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-10 14:15
PointsBet (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 51.67%EV -8.41%E -4.67%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -7.13%E -1.88%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -3.76%E -0.965%K -1.30%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-10 14:15
BetMGM1.83I 54.64%NM 50.77%EV -6.88%E -3.76%K -8.29%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.45%EV -7.13%E -1.88%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-10 16:49
BetOnline.ag1.84I 54.35%NM 49.94%EV -6.37%E -3.46%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -7.13%E -1.88%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -12.40%E -3.49%K -4.86%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-10 16:55
BetAnything1.84I 54.35%NM 49.94%EV -6.37%E -3.46%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.18%EV -7.13%E -1.88%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.88%EV -12.40%E -3.49%K -4.86%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-10 16:55
888sport1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -5.86%E -3.17%K -6.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -7.13%E -1.88%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -13.63%E -3.90%K -5.45%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-10 16:55
William Hill1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -5.86%E -3.17%K -6.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -7.13%E -1.88%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -13.63%E -3.90%K -5.45%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-10 16:54
888sport (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -5.86%E -3.17%K -6.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -7.13%E -1.88%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -13.63%E -3.90%K -5.45%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-10 16:55
Mr Green (SE)1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -5.86%E -3.17%K -6.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -7.13%E -1.88%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -13.63%E -3.90%K -5.45%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-10 16:55
Paddy Power1.75I 57.14%NM 51.01%EV -10.95%E -6.26%K -14.60%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -7.13%E -1.88%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -13.63%E -3.90%K -5.45%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-10 16:55
Sky Bet1.75I 57.14%NM 50.63%EV -10.95%E -6.26%K -14.60%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.32%EV -7.13%E -1.88%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.06%EV -16.10%E -4.74%K -6.71%G +0.000%12.9%2026-04-10 16:54
PMU (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 52.86%EV -15.53%E -9.36%K -23.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.09%EV -7.13%E -1.88%K -2.55%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.04%EV -9.93%E -2.72%K -3.75%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-10 16:50
GTbets1.87I 53.48%NM 50.68%EV -4.85%E -2.59%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.21%EV -8.11%E -2.16%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.11%EV -3.02%E -0.769%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-10 16:55
Everygame1.85I 54.05%NM 50.34%EV -5.86%E -3.17%K -6.90%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -8.35%E -2.23%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-10 12:14
Bet Right1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -8.41%E -4.67%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -8.35%E -2.23%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-10 14:15
Betsson1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -0.774%E -0.397%K -0.815%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.83%EV -10.80%E -2.96%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.83%EV -9.93%E -2.72%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-10 16:54
NordicBet1.95I 51.28%NM 48.34%EV -0.774%E -0.397%K -0.815%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.83%EV -10.80%E -2.96%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.83%EV -9.93%E -2.72%K -3.75%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-10 16:55
Unibet (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 50.77%EV -12.48%E -7.25%K -17.33%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.92%EV -10.80%E -2.96%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.31%EV -14.87%E -4.31%K -6.07%G +0.000%14.5%2026-04-10 16:39
1xBet1.90I 52.63%NM 49.96%EV -3.32%E -1.75%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.37%EV -12.02%E -3.34%K -4.62%G +0.000%4.01I 24.94%NM 23.67%EV -1.05%E -0.262%K -0.349%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-10 16:54
BetUS1.86I 53.76%NM 50.46%EV -5.35%E -2.88%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -12.02%E -3.34%K -4.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.47%EV -1.30%E -0.324%K -0.432%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-10 16:55
Betway1.85I 54.05%NM 49.82%EV -5.86%E -3.17%K -6.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.60%EV -12.02%E -3.34%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.58%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-10 16:55
Winamax (DE)1.78I 56.18%NM 51.10%EV -9.42%E -5.29%K -12.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.27%EV -12.02%E -3.34%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.63%EV -5.00%E -1.30%K -1.75%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-10 14:30
Bet Victor1.80I 55.56%NM 50.51%EV -8.41%E -4.67%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.25%EV -12.02%E -3.34%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.24%EV -7.47%E -1.99%K -2.71%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-10 16:54
Neds1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -8.41%E -4.67%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -12.02%E -3.34%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -11.17%E -3.10%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-10 16:50
Coral1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -8.41%E -4.67%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -12.02%E -3.34%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -11.17%E -3.10%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-10 16:50
Ladbrokes (AU)1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -8.41%E -4.67%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -12.02%E -3.34%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -11.17%E -3.10%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-10 16:50
Ladbrokes (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -8.41%E -4.67%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -12.02%E -3.34%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -11.17%E -3.10%K -4.29%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-10 16:50
PlayUp1.87I 53.48%NM 48.52%EV -4.85%E -2.59%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.56%EV -13.24%E -3.73%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -13.63%E -3.90%K -5.45%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-10 16:55
Betclic (FR)1.72I 58.14%NM 50.96%EV -12.48%E -7.25%K -17.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.69%EV -13.24%E -3.73%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.35%EV -11.17%E -3.10%K -4.29%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-10 16:37
BoyleSports1.73I 57.80%NM 50.29%EV -11.97%E -6.92%K -16.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.86%EV -14.46%E -4.13%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.86%EV -13.63%E -3.90%K -5.45%G +0.000%14.9%2026-04-10 16:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.73I 57.80%NM 49.54%EV -11.97%E -6.92%K -16.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.49%EV -14.46%E -4.13%K -5.79%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 25.97%EV -18.57%E -5.63%K -8.07%G +0.000%16.7%2026-04-10 16:54
Winamax (FR)1.74I 57.47%NM 50.64%EV -11.46%E -6.59%K -15.49%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.54%EV -15.69%E -4.55%K -6.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.82%EV -8.70%E -2.35%K -3.22%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-10 14:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.92I 52.08%NM 51.74%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.10%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.15%0.7%2026-04-10 16:55
Matchbook1.92I 52.08%NM 51.74%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.10%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.15%0.7%2026-04-10 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.90I 52.63%NM 52.28%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.57%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.15%0.7%2026-04-10 16:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.91I 52.36%NM 51.87%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.04%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.08%0.9%2026-04-10 16:55
Smarkets1.88I 53.19%NM 51.82%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.20%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.98%2.6%2026-04-10 16:55