The School of Odds
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Vasco da Gama v Barracas Central

Kickoff: 2026-05-27 22:00 UTC

Final: Vasco da Gama 3–0 Barracas Central

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Vasco da Gama (Local)

Prediction 69.58%1.44fair odd
EV -1.89%
Edge -1.34%
Kelly -4.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.86%69.47%69.58%71.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.341.351.4176.92%74.39%73.80%70.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Barracas Central (Visit)

Prediction 11.30%8.85fair odd
EV -0.661%
Edge -0.075%
Kelly -0.085%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 8.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.63%11.36%11.30%13.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.507.958.008.7915.38%12.58%12.50%11.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.12%5.23fair odd
EV -1.16%
Edge -0.224%
Kelly -0.278%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.07%19.17%19.12%20.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.694.705.1722.73%21.31%21.28%19.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vasco da Gama (Local): 69.58%; Barracas Central (Visit): 11.30%; Draw: 19.12%. For Barracas Central (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.85. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 8.79, with an expected value of -0.661%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 69.07%EV -1.89%E -1.34%K -4.61%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.46%EV -3.94%E -0.463%K -0.525%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.48%EV -4.41%E -0.882%K -1.10%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-27 21:49
1xBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -3.28%E -2.36%K -8.42%G +0.000%8.06I 12.41%NM 11.79%EV -8.91%E -1.11%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.78I 20.92%NM 19.87%EV -8.62%E -1.80%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-27 21:50
Coolbet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.02%EV -3.98%E -2.88%K -10.47%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.54%EV -6.76%E -0.820%K -0.933%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.44%EV -6.32%E -1.29%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-24 02:49
Bovada🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.39%EV -3.98%E -2.88%K -10.47%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.83%EV -18.07%E -2.49%K -2.89%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.79%EV -10.15%E -2.16%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-27 21:49
Casumo🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.28%EV -5.37%E -3.95%K -14.92%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -3.94%E -0.463%K -0.525%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.63%EV -8.23%E -1.72%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-27 21:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.28%EV -5.37%E -3.95%K -14.92%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -3.94%E -0.463%K -0.525%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.63%EV -8.23%E -1.72%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-27 21:50
Unibet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.28%EV -5.37%E -3.95%K -14.92%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -3.94%E -0.463%K -0.525%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.63%EV -8.23%E -1.72%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-27 21:50
Svenska Spel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.28%EV -5.37%E -3.95%K -14.92%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -3.94%E -0.463%K -0.525%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.63%EV -8.23%E -1.72%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-27 21:49
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.41%EV -5.37%E -3.95%K -14.92%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -15.24%E -2.03%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -13.97%E -3.10%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-27 21:50
William Hill🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.41%EV -5.37%E -3.95%K -14.92%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -15.24%E -2.03%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -13.97%E -3.10%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-27 21:49
888sport (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.41%EV -5.37%E -3.95%K -14.92%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -15.24%E -2.03%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -13.97%E -3.10%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-27 21:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.41%EV -5.37%E -3.95%K -14.92%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -15.24%E -2.03%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -13.97%E -3.10%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-27 21:50
Coral🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.86%EV -5.37%E -3.95%K -14.92%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%EV -26.54%E -4.08%K -4.83%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.36%EV -15.88%E -3.61%K -4.67%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-27 21:50
NordicBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.58%EV -6.07%E -4.49%K -17.33%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.72%EV -10.72%E -1.36%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.70%EV -10.15%E -2.16%K -2.74%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-27 21:29
DraftKings🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.14%EV -6.76%E -5.05%K -19.89%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.06%EV -3.94%E -0.463%K -0.525%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.80%EV -4.41%E -0.882%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-27 21:30
betfred_uk🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.41%EV -7.46%E -5.61%K -22.60%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.37%EV -9.59%E -1.20%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.22%EV -13.97%E -3.10%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-27 21:39
Virgin Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.16%EV -8.15%E -6.18%K -25.48%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.41%EV -9.59%E -1.20%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.42%EV -10.15%E -2.16%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-27 21:50
LeoVegas🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.16%EV -8.15%E -6.18%K -25.48%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.41%EV -9.59%E -1.20%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.42%EV -10.15%E -2.16%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-27 21:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.16%EV -8.15%E -6.18%K -25.48%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.41%EV -9.59%E -1.20%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.42%EV -10.15%E -2.16%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-27 21:49
LiveScore Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.16%EV -8.15%E -6.18%K -25.48%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.41%EV -9.59%E -1.20%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.42%EV -10.15%E -2.16%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-27 21:49
PMU (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.16%EV -8.15%E -6.18%K -25.48%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.41%EV -9.59%E -1.20%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.42%EV -10.15%E -2.16%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-27 21:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 67.18%EV -8.15%E -6.18%K -25.48%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.67%EV -20.89%E -2.98%K -3.48%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.15%EV -15.88%E -3.61%K -4.67%G +0.000%12.8%2026-05-27 21:40
Pinnacle🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.31%EV -8.85%E -6.76%K -28.55%G +0.000%8.79I 11.38%NM 10.63%EV -0.661%E -0.075%K -0.085%G +0.000%5.17I 19.34%NM 18.07%EV -1.16%E -0.224%K -0.278%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-27 21:40
SportsBet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.10%EV -9.55%E -7.34%K -31.82%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.72%EV -3.94%E -0.463%K -0.525%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.18%EV -9.19%E -1.93%K -2.45%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-27 21:39
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.90%EV -9.55%E -7.34%K -31.82%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.20%EV -9.59%E -1.20%K -1.37%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -13.97%E -3.10%K -3.99%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-27 21:49
Sky Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 68.39%EV -9.55%E -7.34%K -31.82%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.85%EV -15.24%E -2.03%K -2.34%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.76%EV -13.97%E -3.10%K -3.99%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-27 21:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.40I 71.43%NM 71.22%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.97%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.81%0.3%2026-05-27 21:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.40I 71.43%NM 71.22%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.97%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.81%0.3%2026-05-27 21:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.39I 71.94%NM 71.36%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.92%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.72%0.8%2026-05-27 21:50
Smarkets◎1.39I 71.94%NM 70.97%9.80I 10.20%NM 10.07%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.97%1.4%2026-05-27 21:50