The School of Odds
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San Lorenzo v Santos

Kickoff: 2026-04-28 22:00 UTC

Final: San Lorenzo 1–1 Santos

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Lorenzo (Local)

Prediction 40.18%2.49fair odd
EV -5.59%
Edge -2.38%
Kelly -4.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.69%40.25%40.15%41.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.272.282.3546.51%44.14%43.86%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Santos (Visit)

Prediction 27.41%3.65fair odd
EV -1.32%
Edge -0.367%
Kelly -0.508%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.41%27.54%27.48%28.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.303.303.6033.33%30.34%30.30%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.41%3.09fair odd
EV +2.10%
Edge +0.668%
Kelly +0.979%
Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.57%32.21%32.37%32.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.932.903.1536.36%34.18%34.48%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: San Lorenzo (Local): 40.18%; Santos (Visit): 27.41%; Draw: 32.41%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.09. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.10%.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.20%EV -5.59%E -2.38%K -4.14%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.06%EV -5.43%E -1.57%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.74%EV +2.10%E +0.668%K +0.979%G +0.021%3.3%2026-04-21 07:20
Casumo🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.56%EV -8.40%E -3.68%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.87%EV -6.80%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.57%EV +0.483%E +0.156%K +0.230%G +0.001%5.5%2026-04-21 07:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.56%EV -8.40%E -3.68%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.87%EV -6.80%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.57%EV +0.483%E +0.156%K +0.230%G +0.001%5.5%2026-04-21 07:15
Unibet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.56%EV -8.40%E -3.68%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.87%EV -6.80%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.57%EV +0.483%E +0.156%K +0.230%G +0.001%5.5%2026-04-21 07:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.56%EV -8.40%E -3.68%K -6.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.87%EV -6.80%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.57%EV +0.483%E +0.156%K +0.230%G +0.001%5.5%2026-04-21 07:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -7.60%E -3.30%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -12.29%E -3.84%K -5.58%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -2.76%E -0.919%K -1.38%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-23 22:04
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.55%EV -7.60%E -3.30%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.84%EV -8.17%E -2.44%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.61%EV -4.38%E -1.48%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-23 13:27
LeoVegas🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.28%EV -11.61%E -5.28%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -10.92%E -3.36%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.78%EV -4.38%E -1.48%K -2.25%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-21 07:15
LiveScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.28%EV -11.61%E -5.28%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -10.92%E -3.36%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.78%EV -4.38%E -1.48%K -2.25%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-21 07:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.28%EV -11.61%E -5.28%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -10.92%E -3.36%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.78%EV -4.38%E -1.48%K -2.25%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-21 07:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.28%EV -11.61%E -5.28%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -10.92%E -3.36%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.78%EV -4.38%E -1.48%K -2.25%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-21 07:15
Coolbet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.81%EV -6.39%E -2.74%K -4.81%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.41%EV -1.32%E -0.367%K -0.508%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.78%EV -6.00%E -2.07%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-20 23:19
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -9.61%E -4.27%K -7.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -9.55%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -6.00%E -2.07%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-23 13:24
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.69%EV -9.61%E -4.27%K -7.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -9.55%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.57%EV -6.00%E -2.07%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-23 22:02
Pinnacle🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 40.40%EV -6.79%E -2.93%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -5.43%E -1.57%K -2.22%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 32.43%EV -6.32%E -2.19%K -3.35%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-21 02:35
1xBet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 40.34%EV -7.19%E -3.11%K -5.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.41%EV -6.80%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 32.25%EV -6.32%E -2.19%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-23 18:14
NordicBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.69%EV -6.79%E -2.93%K -5.15%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.33%EV -10.92%E -3.36%K -4.85%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.97%EV -6.65%E -2.31%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-20 23:00
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.89%EV -9.61%E -4.27%K -7.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.95%EV -15.03%E -4.85%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -6.65%E -2.31%K -3.54%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-22 08:15
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.38%EV -11.61%E -5.28%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -15.03%E -4.85%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.96%EV -6.97%E -2.43%K -3.73%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-21 18:39
DraftKings🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -7.60%E -3.30%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.53%EV -8.17%E -2.44%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -7.62%E -2.67%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-22 10:39
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.66%EV -13.62%E -6.34%K -11.85%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.66%EV -16.40%E -5.38%K -8.00%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.67%EV -7.62%E -2.67%K -4.12%G +0.000%14.4%2026-04-23 13:14
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -7.60%E -3.30%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -9.55%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -9.24%E -3.30%K -5.13%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-20 23:00
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -7.60%E -3.30%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -9.55%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -9.24%E -3.30%K -5.13%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-20 23:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -7.60%E -3.30%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -9.55%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -9.24%E -3.30%K -5.13%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-20 23:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -7.60%E -3.30%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -9.55%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -9.24%E -3.30%K -5.13%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-20 23:00
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.02%EV -13.62%E -6.34%K -11.85%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.68%EV -17.77%E -5.92%K -8.88%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 31.29%EV -10.86%E -3.95%K -6.21%G +0.000%16.2%2026-04-23 13:24
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.14I 46.73%NM 40.19%2.98I 33.56%NM 28.86%2.78I 35.97%NM 30.94%16.3%2026-04-24 02:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.98I 50.51%NM 26.73%1.09I 91.74%NM 48.55%2.14I 46.73%NM 24.73%89.0%2026-04-24 02:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.98I 50.51%NM 26.73%1.09I 91.74%NM 48.55%2.14I 46.73%NM 24.73%89.0%2026-04-24 02:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.12%1.02I 98.04%NM 33.77%190.3%2026-04-24 02:35