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San Lorenzo v C.D. Cuenca
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
San Lorenzo (Local)
Prediction 60.35%1.66fair odd
EV -1.02%
Edge -0.621%
Kelly -1.59%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.64
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.05%60.35%61.20%62.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.531.531.6469.93%65.16%65.36%60.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
C.D. Cuenca (Visit)
Prediction 12.31%8.12fair odd
EV +4.42%
Edge +0.521%
Kelly +0.591%
Growth +0.026%
assuming max odds 8.48
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.04%12.31%12.25%13.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.507.467.508.4815.38%13.40%13.33%11.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 27.33%3.66fair odd
EV +0.581%
Edge +0.158%
Kelly +0.217%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 3.68
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.78%27.33%26.55%29.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.193.393.353.6831.35%29.49%29.85%27.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: San Lorenzo (Local): 60.35%; C.D. Cuenca (Visit): 12.31%; Draw: 27.33%. For C.D. Cuenca (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.12. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.48, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.42%.
Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.62%EV -5.24%E -3.34%K -9.20%G +0.000% | 8.48I 11.79%NM 11.04%EV +4.42%E +0.521%K +0.591%G +0.026% | 3.19I 31.35%NM 29.34%EV -12.81%E -4.02%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-17 00:24 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.66%EV -2.83%E -1.76%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.21%EV -1.49%E -0.186%K -0.213%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.13%EV -1.61%E -0.446%K -0.618%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-04-17 00:19 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.71%EV -5.85%E -3.75%K -10.44%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.84%EV -1.49%E -0.186%K -0.213%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.45%EV -5.71%E -1.65%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-17 00:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.71%EV -5.85%E -3.75%K -10.44%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.84%EV -1.49%E -0.186%K -0.213%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.45%EV -5.71%E -1.65%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-17 00:19 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.71%EV -5.85%E -3.75%K -10.44%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.84%EV -1.49%E -0.186%K -0.213%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.45%EV -5.71%E -1.65%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-17 00:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.71%EV -5.85%E -3.75%K -10.44%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.84%EV -1.49%E -0.186%K -0.213%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.45%EV -5.71%E -1.65%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-17 00:19 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.05%EV -1.02%E -0.621%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.20%EV -3.95%E -0.507%K -0.581%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.75%EV -12.54%E -3.92%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-16 14:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.01%EV -7.66%E -5.01%K -14.45%G +0.000% | 7.77I 12.87%NM 12.21%EV -4.32%E -0.556%K -0.638%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 25.78%EV +0.581%E +0.158%K +0.217%G +0.001% | 5.4% | 2026-04-17 00:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.01%EV -7.05%E -4.58%K -13.06%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.53%EV -7.65%E -1.02%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -2.97%E -0.837%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-17 00:24 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -9.47%E -6.31%K -18.94%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.14%EV -7.65%E -1.02%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -8.44%E -2.52%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-16 23:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -9.47%E -6.31%K -18.94%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.14%EV -7.65%E -1.02%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -8.44%E -2.52%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-16 23:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -9.47%E -6.31%K -18.94%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.14%EV -7.65%E -1.02%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -8.44%E -2.52%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-16 23:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -9.47%E -6.31%K -18.94%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.14%EV -7.65%E -1.02%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -8.44%E -2.52%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-04-16 23:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.06%EV -2.23%E -1.37%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.44%EV -13.80%E -1.97%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.50%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-17 00:23 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.41%EV -9.47%E -6.31%K -18.94%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.94%EV -13.80%E -1.97%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -7.07%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-17 00:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.41%EV -9.47%E -6.31%K -18.94%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.94%EV -13.80%E -1.97%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -7.07%E -2.08%K -2.95%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-04-17 00:19 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.92%EV -9.47%E -6.31%K -18.94%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.84%EV -13.80%E -1.97%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.24%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-04-17 00:24 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.67%EV -9.47%E -6.31%K -18.94%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.79%EV -13.80%E -1.97%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -11.17%E -3.44%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-04-17 00:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.20%EV -6.45%E -4.16%K -11.73%G +0.000% | 6.90I 14.49%NM 13.52%EV -15.03%E -2.18%K -2.55%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.28%EV -2.97%E -0.837%K -1.17%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-17 00:14 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 60.84%EV -13.69%E -9.58%K -31.84%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 12.79%EV -16.27%E -2.39%K -2.80%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.36%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-04-17 00:24 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.34%EV -9.47%E -6.31%K -18.94%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.69%EV -19.96%E -3.07%K -3.63%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.97%EV -9.81%E -2.97%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-04-17 00:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 62.05% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.82% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.13% | 0.7% | 2026-04-17 00:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 62.05% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.82% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.13% | 0.7% | 2026-04-17 00:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 62.05% | 8.40I 11.90%NM 11.82% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 26.13% | 0.7% | 2026-04-17 00:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 62.01% | 8.60I 11.63%NM 11.54% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.46% | 0.8% | 2026-04-17 00:24 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 61.96% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 11.94% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.10% | 2.2% | 2026-04-17 00:24 |