The School of Odds
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River Plate v Bragantino-SP

Kickoff: 2026-05-21 00:30 UTC

Final: River Plate 1–1 Bragantino-SP

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

River Plate (Local)

Prediction 35.94%2.78fair odd
EV -3.67%
Edge -1.37%
Kelly -2.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.15%35.85%35.94%40.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.522.502.6843.48%39.62%40.00%37.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bragantino-SP (Visit)

Prediction 32.37%3.09fair odd
EV +6.82%
Edge +2.07%
Kelly +2.96%
Growth +0.202%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.44%32.32%32.37%33.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.902.903.3037.04%34.49%34.48%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.69%3.16fair odd
EV -1.77%
Edge -0.572%
Kelly -0.844%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.39%31.83%31.69%32.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.912.903.1036.36%34.34%34.48%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: River Plate (Local): 35.94%; Bragantino-SP (Visit): 32.37%; Draw: 31.69%. For Bragantino-SP (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.09. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.82%.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.80%EV -17.33%E -7.53%K -13.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.44%EV +6.82%E +2.07%K +2.96%G +0.202%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.77%EV -3.36%E -1.10%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-21 00:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 36.71%EV -4.75%E -1.79%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.90%EV -1.27%E -0.418%K -0.622%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.39%EV -1.77%E -0.572%K -0.844%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-21 00:20
1xBet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.12%EV -5.46%E -2.08%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.24%EV -1.60%E -0.526%K -0.784%G +0.000%2.91I 34.36%NM 32.64%EV -7.79%E -2.68%K -4.08%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-21 00:20
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.39%EV -6.54%E -2.52%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.07%EV -4.51%E -1.53%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.54%EV -4.94%E -1.65%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-21 00:00
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.84%EV -8.34%E -3.27%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.85%EV -4.51%E -1.53%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.31%EV -4.94%E -1.65%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-21 00:00
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.84%EV -8.34%E -3.27%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.85%EV -4.51%E -1.53%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.31%EV -4.94%E -1.65%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-20 23:59
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.84%EV -8.34%E -3.27%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.85%EV -4.51%E -1.53%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.31%EV -4.94%E -1.65%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-20 23:59
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.84%EV -8.34%E -3.27%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.85%EV -4.51%E -1.53%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.31%EV -4.94%E -1.65%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-21 00:00
Pinnacle🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.57%EV -3.67%E -1.37%K -2.18%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.65%EV -5.48%E -1.88%K -2.86%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.78%EV -4.94%E -1.65%K -2.47%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-21 00:20
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -10.14%E -4.06%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -6.13%E -2.11%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -11.28%E -4.03%K -6.27%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-21 00:20
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -10.14%E -4.06%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -6.13%E -2.11%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -11.28%E -4.03%K -6.27%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-21 00:20
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -10.14%E -4.06%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -6.13%E -2.11%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -11.28%E -4.03%K -6.27%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-21 00:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -10.14%E -4.06%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -6.13%E -2.11%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -11.28%E -4.03%K -6.27%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-21 00:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.30%EV -10.14%E -4.06%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -6.13%E -2.11%K -3.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.41%EV -11.28%E -4.03%K -6.27%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-21 00:20
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -10.14%E -4.06%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.44%EV -6.78%E -2.35%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -11.28%E -4.03%K -6.27%G +0.000%10.4%2026-05-21 00:20
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -11.94%E -4.87%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.03%EV -6.78%E -2.35%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.50%EV -12.86%E -4.68%K -7.35%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-21 00:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.69%EV -10.86%E -4.38%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.93%EV -7.75%E -2.72%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -8.11%E -2.80%K -4.27%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-21 00:20
LeoVegas🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.69%EV -10.86%E -4.38%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.93%EV -7.75%E -2.72%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -8.11%E -2.80%K -4.27%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-21 00:19
LiveScore Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.69%EV -10.86%E -4.38%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.93%EV -7.75%E -2.72%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -8.11%E -2.80%K -4.27%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-21 00:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.69%EV -10.86%E -4.38%K -7.34%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.93%EV -7.75%E -2.72%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.38%EV -8.11%E -2.80%K -4.27%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-21 00:20
NordicBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.38%EV -5.82%E -2.22%K -3.60%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.87%EV -8.72%E -3.09%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.75%EV -7.48%E -2.56%K -3.89%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-21 00:10
Unibet (UK)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.15%EV -4.75%E -1.79%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.27%EV -9.37%E -3.35%K -5.20%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.58%EV -6.53%E -2.21%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-21 00:10
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -10.14%E -4.06%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -10.99%E -3.99%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -4.94%E -1.65%K -2.47%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-21 00:20
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.75%EV -10.14%E -4.06%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.10%EV -12.60%E -4.67%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.14%EV -9.06%E -3.16%K -4.85%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-20 23:50
Unibet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.62%EV -13.73%E -5.72%K -9.81%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.55%EV -12.60%E -4.67%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.84%EV -9.69%E -3.40%K -5.24%G +0.000%13.8%2026-05-21 00:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.72I 36.76%NM 36.66%3.20I 31.25%NM 31.16%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.17%0.3%2026-05-21 00:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.66%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.42%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%1.0%2026-05-21 00:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.66%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.42%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%1.0%2026-05-21 00:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.66%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.42%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.93%1.0%2026-05-21 00:20
Smarkets◎2.70I 37.04%NM 36.28%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.60%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.12%2.1%2026-05-21 00:20