The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Recoleta FC v San Lorenzo

Kickoff: 2026-04-08 22:02 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Recoleta FC (Local)

Prediction 21.27%4.70fair odd
EV +4.20%
Edge +0.858%
Kelly +1.08%
Growth +0.045%

assuming max odds 4.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.95%21.26%21.43%22.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.354.354.9025.32%23.01%22.99%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

San Lorenzo (Visit)

Prediction 49.03%2.04fair odd
EV -4.88%
Edge -2.52%
Kelly -5.19%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.94

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.30%49.01%48.94%51.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.791.861.851.9455.87%53.73%54.05%51.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.70%3.37fair odd
EV +2.48%
Edge +0.718%
Kelly +1.01%
Growth +0.025%

assuming max odds 3.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.64%29.73%29.63%30.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.153.153.4534.48%31.73%31.75%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Recoleta FC (Local): 21.27%; San Lorenzo (Visit): 49.03%; Draw: 29.70%. For Recoleta FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.70. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.20%.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯4.90I 20.41%NM 19.95%EV +4.20%E +0.858%K +1.08%G +0.045%1.89I 52.91%NM 51.72%EV -7.33%E -3.88%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.33%EV +2.48%E +0.718%K +1.01%G +0.025%2.3%2026-04-08 22:00
1xBet🎯4.86I 20.58%NM 19.97%EV +3.35%E +0.690%K +0.869%G +0.029%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.54%EV -5.86%E -3.05%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.49%EV -2.28%E -0.692%K -0.994%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-08 21:59
Casumo🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 20.39%EV +2.08%E +0.433%K +0.547%G +0.011%1.91I 52.36%NM 51.24%EV -6.35%E -3.33%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.37%EV +2.48%E +0.718%K +1.01%G +0.025%2.2%2026-04-08 22:00
Unibet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.52%EV -2.18%E -0.473%K -0.605%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 51.30%EV -9.78%E -5.32%K -11.65%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.18%EV -0.493%E -0.147%K -0.210%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-08 22:00
DraftKings🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 20.32%EV -2.18%E -0.473%K -0.605%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -8.31%E -4.45%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -6.43%E -2.04%K -2.99%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-08 22:00
Bovada🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -4.30%E -0.956%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.24%EV -6.35%E -3.33%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.86%EV -6.43%E -2.04%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-08 22:00
Unibet (UK)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -4.30%E -0.956%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.14%EV -6.84%E -3.60%K -7.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.12%EV -7.92%E -2.55%K -3.77%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-08 21:59
Pinnacle🎯4.43I 22.57%NM 21.46%EV -5.79%E -1.31%K -1.69%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.01%EV -4.88%E -2.52%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.53%EV -4.35%E -1.35%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-08 21:59
Unibet (NL)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -6.43%E -1.46%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.75%EV -10.27%E -5.61%K -12.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -1.98%E -0.599%K -0.860%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-08 22:00
Svenska Spel🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.11%EV -6.43%E -1.46%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.75%EV -10.27%E -5.61%K -12.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -1.98%E -0.599%K -0.860%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-08 22:00
LiveScore Bet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.90%EV -6.43%E -1.46%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.81%EV -11.25%E -6.22%K -13.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -3.46%E -1.07%K -1.54%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-08 22:00
Virgin Bet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.90%EV -6.43%E -1.46%K -1.89%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.81%EV -11.25%E -6.22%K -13.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.29%EV -3.46%E -1.07%K -1.54%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-08 22:00
LeoVegas🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 20.88%EV -7.49%E -1.72%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 50.74%EV -12.24%E -6.84%K -15.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.38%EV -4.95%E -1.55%K -2.25%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-08 22:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 20.75%EV -7.49%E -1.72%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.14%EV -11.75%E -6.53%K -14.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -7.92%E -2.55%K -3.77%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-08 22:00
Coolbet🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.52%EV -7.92%E -1.83%K -2.38%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.80%EV -6.35%E -3.33%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.68%EV -6.73%E -2.14%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-08 22:00
SportsBet🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 20.96%EV -7.92%E -1.83%K -2.38%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 48.79%EV -8.80%E -4.73%K -10.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.25%EV -10.89%E -3.63%K -5.44%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-08 22:00
Paddy Power🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -10.68%E -2.54%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.34%EV -8.31%E -4.45%K -9.56%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -10.89%E -3.63%K -5.44%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-08 22:00
Coral🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.19%EV -10.68%E -2.54%K -3.34%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.11%EV -9.29%E -5.02%K -10.93%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.69%EV -13.86%E -4.78%K -7.29%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-08 22:00
NordicBet🎯4.15I 24.10%NM 22.11%EV -11.75%E -2.83%K -3.73%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.80%EV -5.86%E -3.05%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.09%EV -9.40%E -3.08%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-08 21:59
William Hill🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.59%EV -14.94%E -3.73%K -4.98%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.30%EV -6.35%E -3.33%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -10.89%E -3.63%K -5.44%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-08 22:00
Sky Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.46%EV -14.94%E -3.73%K -4.98%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.90%EV -11.75%E -6.53%K -14.68%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.64%EV -3.46%E -1.07%K -1.54%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-08 22:00
888sport🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -14.94%E -3.73%K -4.98%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.10%EV -9.29%E -5.02%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -10.89%E -3.63%K -5.44%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-08 22:00
888sport (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -14.94%E -3.73%K -4.98%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.10%EV -9.29%E -5.02%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -10.89%E -3.63%K -5.44%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-08 22:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -14.94%E -3.73%K -4.98%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 48.10%EV -9.29%E -5.02%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -10.89%E -3.63%K -5.44%G +0.000%12.4%2026-04-08 22:00
Unibet (FR)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 22.01%EV -16.00%E -4.05%K -5.42%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 48.02%EV -11.25%E -6.22%K -13.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.97%EV -13.86%E -4.78%K -7.29%G +0.000%15.0%2026-04-08 21:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.80I 20.83%NM 20.61%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.96%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.43%1.1%2026-04-08 22:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.80I 20.83%NM 20.61%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.96%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.43%1.1%2026-04-08 22:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.70I 21.28%NM 20.95%2.02I 49.50%NM 48.75%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.30%1.6%2026-04-08 22:00
Matchbook◎4.30I 23.26%NM 21.83%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.89%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.28%6.5%2026-04-08 22:00