The School of Odds
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Puerto Cabello v Monagas SC

Kickoff: 2026-03-04 00:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Puerto Cabello (Local)

Prediction 47.82%2.09fair odd
EV -3.41%
Edge -1.69%
Kelly -3.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.72%48.10%47.68%50.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.861.941.932.0253.76%51.53%51.81%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Monagas SC (Visit)

Prediction 23.33%4.29fair odd
EV -0.361%
Edge -0.085%
Kelly -0.110%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.52%23.12%23.51%24.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.933.904.2727.03%25.46%25.64%23.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.85%3.47fair odd
EV -3.36%
Edge -1.00%
Kelly -1.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.89%28.78%28.81%30.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.143.103.3533.33%31.87%32.26%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Puerto Cabello (Local): 47.82%; Monagas SC (Visit): 23.33%; Draw: 28.85%. For Monagas SC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.29. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.27, with an expected value of -0.361%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 48.06%EV -3.41%E -1.69%K -3.34%G +0.000%4.23I 23.64%NM 22.95%EV -1.29%E -0.306%K -0.401%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.98%EV -3.36%E -1.00%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.0%2026-03-04 00:20
NordicBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.72%EV -3.41%E -1.69%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -13.66%E -3.69%K -5.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.32%EV -9.13%E -2.90%K -4.25%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-04 00:20
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.48%EV -4.36%E -2.18%K -4.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.74%EV -6.66%E -1.67%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -4.81%E -1.46%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-04 00:20
Pinnacle🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.20%EV -6.75%E -3.46%K -7.11%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 22.70%EV -3.39%E -0.820%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.10%EV -6.82%E -2.11%K -3.06%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-04 00:20
Bovada🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.69%EV -6.75%E -3.46%K -7.11%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -6.66%E -1.67%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -7.69%E -2.40%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-04 00:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.62%EV -6.75%E -3.46%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -8.99%E -2.31%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -6.25%E -1.92%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-03 22:00
William Hill🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -6.75%E -3.46%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -8.99%E -2.31%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -10.57%E -3.41%K -5.04%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-04 00:20
888sport🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -6.75%E -3.46%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -8.99%E -2.31%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -10.57%E -3.41%K -5.04%G +0.000%9.2%2026-03-04 00:20
Unibet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.57%EV -7.71%E -4.00%K -8.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.97%EV -12.49%E -3.33%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.47%EV -12.02%E -3.94%K -5.86%G +0.000%11.3%2026-02-28 10:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.57%EV -7.71%E -4.00%K -8.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.97%EV -12.49%E -3.33%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.47%EV -12.02%E -3.94%K -5.86%G +0.000%11.3%2026-02-28 10:30
Casumo🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.57%EV -7.71%E -4.00%K -8.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.97%EV -12.49%E -3.33%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.47%EV -12.02%E -3.94%K -5.86%G +0.000%11.3%2026-02-28 10:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.57%EV -7.71%E -4.00%K -8.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.97%EV -12.49%E -3.33%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.47%EV -12.02%E -3.94%K -5.86%G +0.000%11.3%2026-02-28 10:30
LeoVegas🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.57%EV -7.71%E -4.00%K -8.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.97%EV -12.49%E -3.33%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.47%EV -12.02%E -3.94%K -5.86%G +0.000%11.3%2026-02-28 10:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.57%EV -7.71%E -4.00%K -8.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.97%EV -12.49%E -3.33%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.47%EV -12.02%E -3.94%K -5.86%G +0.000%11.3%2026-02-28 10:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.57%EV -7.71%E -4.00%K -8.29%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.97%EV -12.49%E -3.33%K -4.54%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.47%EV -12.02%E -3.94%K -5.86%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-03 16:00
SportsBet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.42%EV -9.14%E -4.81%K -10.16%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.90%EV -1.99%E -0.475%K -0.623%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.68%EV -10.57%E -3.41%K -5.04%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-04 00:10
Paddy Power🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.34%EV -10.58%E -5.66%K -12.16%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -1.99%E -0.475%K -0.623%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -13.46%E -4.49%K -6.73%G +0.000%10.6%2026-03-04 00:10
Coolbet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.23%EV -11.06%E -5.94%K -12.86%G +0.000%4.27I 23.42%NM 21.88%EV -0.361%E -0.085%K -0.110%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.89%EV -3.36%E -1.00%K -1.43%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-03 21:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.02I 49.50%NM 49.41%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.79%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.79%0.2%2026-03-04 00:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.44%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.60%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.96%1.1%2026-03-04 00:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.44%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.60%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.96%1.1%2026-03-04 00:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.44%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.60%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.96%1.1%2026-03-04 00:20
Smarkets◎1.99I 50.25%NM 49.12%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.80%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.08%2.3%2026-03-04 00:20