The School of Odds
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Puerto Cabello v Clube Atlético Mineiro

Kickoff: 2026-04-09 02:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Puerto Cabello (Local)

Prediction 21.57%4.64fair odd
EV +14.34%
Edge +2.71%
Kelly +3.33%
Growth +0.478%

assuming max odds 5.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.17%21.41%21.71%23.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.504.515.3025.64%22.23%22.17%18.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Clube Atlético Mineiro (Visit)

Prediction 47.22%2.12fair odd
EV -5.57%
Edge -2.78%
Kelly -5.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.80%47.43%47.12%52.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.791.901.912.0055.87%52.54%52.36%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.21%3.20fair odd
EV +4.55%
Edge +1.36%
Kelly +1.94%
Growth +0.088%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.76%31.16%31.17%32.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.033.053.3535.71%32.96%32.79%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Puerto Cabello (Local): 21.57%; Clube Atlético Mineiro (Visit): 47.22%; Draw: 31.21%. For Puerto Cabello (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.64. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.34%.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯5.30I 18.87%NM 18.25%EV +14.34%E +2.71%K +3.33%G +0.478%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.87%EV -13.59%E -7.43%K -16.38%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.88%EV +4.55%E +1.36%K +1.94%G +0.088%3.4%2026-04-09 01:49
Svenska Spel🎯5.20I 19.23%NM 18.17%EV +12.18%E +2.34%K +2.90%G +0.353%1.79I 55.87%NM 52.77%EV -15.48%E -8.65%K -19.60%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.06%EV +1.43%E +0.440%K +0.636%G +0.009%5.9%2026-04-09 01:49
Unibet🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.74%EV +3.55%E +0.740%K +0.935%G +0.033%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.66%EV -11.70%E -6.26%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.60%EV -0.130%E -0.041%K -0.059%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-09 01:54
Casumo🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.74%EV +3.55%E +0.740%K +0.935%G +0.033%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.66%EV -11.70%E -6.26%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.60%EV -0.130%E -0.041%K -0.059%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-09 01:54
Unibet (NL)🎯4.80I 20.83%NM 19.74%EV +3.55%E +0.740%K +0.935%G +0.033%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.66%EV -11.70%E -6.26%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.60%EV -0.130%E -0.041%K -0.059%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-09 01:54
1xBet🎯4.76I 21.01%NM 20.38%EV +2.69%E +0.565%K +0.715%G +0.019%1.99I 50.25%NM 48.74%EV -6.04%E -3.03%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.89%EV -2.00%E -0.638%K -0.936%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-09 01:55
Coolbet🎯4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV +2.47%E +0.521%K +0.660%G +0.016%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.78%EV -7.93%E -4.06%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.19%EV -4.81%E -1.58%K -2.35%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-09 00:44
Virgin Bet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.95%EV -0.762%E -0.166%K -0.212%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 50.44%EV -14.06%E -7.73%K -17.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -3.25%E -1.05%K -1.55%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-09 01:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -0.762%E -0.166%K -0.212%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.47%EV -15.01%E -8.34%K -18.76%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.78%EV -4.81%E -1.58%K -2.35%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-09 01:55
LeoVegas🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -0.762%E -0.166%K -0.212%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.47%EV -15.01%E -8.34%K -18.76%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.78%EV -4.81%E -1.58%K -2.35%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-09 01:55
LiveScore Bet🎯4.60I 21.74%NM 19.75%EV -0.762%E -0.166%K -0.212%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.47%EV -15.01%E -8.34%K -18.76%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.78%EV -4.81%E -1.58%K -2.35%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-09 01:54
Pinnacle🎯4.52I 22.12%NM 21.02%EV -2.49%E -0.550%K -0.707%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -5.57%E -2.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.46%EV -5.75%E -1.90%K -2.85%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-09 01:55
Paddy Power🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.15%EV -2.92%E -0.649%K -0.834%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.47%EV -9.82%E -5.14%K -10.79%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.38%EV -12.61%E -4.51%K -7.01%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-09 01:55
SportsBet🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.10%EV -2.92%E -0.649%K -0.834%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.60%EV -10.29%E -5.41%K -11.43%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.30%EV -12.61%E -4.51%K -7.01%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-09 01:55
DraftKings🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.93%EV -7.23%E -1.68%K -2.19%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.15%EV -5.57%E -2.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.92%EV -4.81%E -1.58%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-09 01:54
Bovada🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -7.23%E -1.68%K -2.19%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.91%EV -5.57%E -2.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.27%EV -6.37%E -2.12%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-09 01:48
Unibet (UK)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -9.39%E -2.24%K -2.93%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.91%EV -5.57%E -2.78%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.76%EV -4.81%E -1.58%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-09 01:49
William Hill🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.73%EV -9.39%E -2.24%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.80%EV -7.93%E -4.06%K -8.34%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -9.49%E -3.27%K -5.00%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-09 01:49
888sport🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.73%EV -9.39%E -2.24%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.80%EV -7.93%E -4.06%K -8.34%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -9.49%E -3.27%K -5.00%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-09 01:49
888sport (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.73%EV -9.39%E -2.24%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.80%EV -7.93%E -4.06%K -8.34%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -9.49%E -3.27%K -5.00%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-09 01:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.73%EV -9.39%E -2.24%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.80%EV -7.93%E -4.06%K -8.34%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -9.49%E -3.27%K -5.00%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-09 01:50
Sky Bet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.28%EV -9.39%E -2.24%K -2.93%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.80%EV -9.82%E -5.14%K -10.79%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.92%EV -12.61%E -4.51%K -7.01%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-09 01:44
NordicBet🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -14.78%E -3.74%K -5.01%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.94%EV -9.34%E -4.87%K -10.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -0.130%E -0.041%K -0.059%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-09 01:35
Unibet (FR)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.34%EV -15.86%E -4.07%K -5.47%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 47.09%EV -12.65%E -6.84%K -14.88%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.57%EV -11.05%E -3.88%K -5.97%G +0.000%14.8%2026-04-09 01:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43%2.06I 48.54%NM 48.09%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.48%0.9%2026-04-09 01:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43%2.06I 48.54%NM 48.09%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.48%0.9%2026-04-09 01:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43%2.06I 48.54%NM 48.09%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.48%0.9%2026-04-09 01:55
Matchbook◎5.10I 19.61%NM 19.33%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.34%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.33%1.4%2026-04-09 01:55
Smarkets◎5.00I 20.00%NM 19.65%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.15%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.21%1.8%2026-04-09 01:55