The School of Odds
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Puerto Cabello v CA Juventud

Kickoff: 2026-05-21 22:00 UTC

Final: Puerto Cabello 1–1 CA Juventud

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Puerto Cabello (Local)

Prediction 47.32%2.11fair odd
EV +5.52%
Edge +2.48%
Kelly +4.49%
Growth +0.248%

assuming max odds 2.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.54%47.40%47.32%48.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.892.032.002.2352.91%49.34%50.00%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

CA Juventud (Visit)

Prediction 23.07%4.33fair odd
EV +1.53%
Edge +0.348%
Kelly +0.450%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.65%23.01%23.07%26.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.793.804.4028.57%26.41%26.32%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.61%3.38fair odd
EV -2.30%
Edge -0.696%
Kelly -0.999%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.77%29.59%29.61%30.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.103.103.3033.33%32.26%32.26%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Puerto Cabello (Local): 47.32%; CA Juventud (Visit): 23.07%; Draw: 29.61%. For Puerto Cabello (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.11. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.23, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.52%.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.64%EV +5.52%E +2.48%K +4.49%G +0.248%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.95%EV -13.47%E -3.59%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.41%EV -5.26%E -1.64%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-21 21:50
Casumo🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.54%EV +2.21%E +1.02%K +1.90%G +0.042%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -16.93%E -4.70%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -8.22%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-21 21:50
Unibet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.54%EV +2.21%E +1.02%K +1.90%G +0.042%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -16.93%E -4.70%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -8.22%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-21 21:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.54%EV +2.21%E +1.02%K +1.90%G +0.042%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -16.93%E -4.70%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -8.22%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-21 21:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.54%EV +2.21%E +1.02%K +1.90%G +0.042%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -16.93%E -4.70%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -8.22%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-21 21:50
LeoVegas🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.71%EV -1.58%E -0.759%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.98%EV -19.24%E -5.50%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -11.18%E -3.73%K -5.59%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-21 21:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.71%EV -1.58%E -0.759%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.98%EV -19.24%E -5.50%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -11.18%E -3.73%K -5.59%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-21 21:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.71%EV -1.58%E -0.759%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.98%EV -19.24%E -5.50%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -11.18%E -3.73%K -5.59%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-21 21:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.71%EV -1.58%E -0.759%K -1.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.98%EV -19.24%E -5.50%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -11.18%E -3.73%K -5.59%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-21 21:50
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -3.00%E -1.46%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -19.24%E -5.50%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -5.26%E -1.64%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-21 21:49
Pinnacle🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.66%EV -3.47%E -1.70%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.41%EV -10.01%E -2.57%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.29I 30.40%NM 28.93%EV -2.59%E -0.788%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-21 21:50
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.55%EV -5.36%E -2.68%K -5.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -5.39%E -1.32%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.26%EV -3.78%E -1.16%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-21 21:50
1xBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.48%EV -5.36%E -2.68%K -5.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.74%EV -7.70%E -1.93%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.78%EV -2.30%E -0.696%K -0.999%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-21 21:50
Bovada🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.48%EV -5.36%E -2.68%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -12.32%E -3.24%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -5.26%E -1.64%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-21 21:49
NordicBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.50%EV -6.31%E -3.19%K -6.44%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.31%EV -8.85%E -2.24%K -3.00%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.19%EV -9.70%E -3.18%K -4.73%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-21 21:50
Coolbet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.59%EV -7.26%E -3.70%K -7.56%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.65%EV +1.53%E +0.348%K +0.450%G +0.007%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.76%EV -5.26%E -1.64%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-21 21:49
SportsBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -7.73%E -3.96%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -10.01%E -2.57%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -8.22%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-21 21:50
William Hill🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.97%EV -7.73%E -3.96%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -10.01%E -2.57%K -3.45%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -8.22%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-21 21:50
888sport🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -7.73%E -3.96%K -8.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -7.70%E -1.93%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -11.18%E -3.73%K -5.59%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-21 21:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -7.73%E -3.96%K -8.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -7.70%E -1.93%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -11.18%E -3.73%K -5.59%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-21 21:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.78%EV -7.73%E -3.96%K -8.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.81%EV -7.70%E -1.93%K -2.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.41%EV -11.18%E -3.73%K -5.59%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-21 21:50
Paddy Power🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.23%EV -7.73%E -3.96%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.72%EV -12.32%E -3.24%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.05%EV -11.18%E -3.73%K -5.59%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-21 21:50
Sky Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.08%EV -7.73%E -3.96%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.96%EV -13.47%E -3.59%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.95%EV -11.18%E -3.73%K -5.59%G +0.000%11.3%2026-05-21 21:50
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.90%EV -9.62%E -5.04%K -10.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -14.62%E -3.95%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.89%EV -8.22%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-21 21:50
Unibet (FR)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 47.46%EV -10.57%E -5.59%K -11.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.61%EV -12.32%E -3.24%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -8.22%E -2.65%K -3.91%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-21 21:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.09%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.48%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.43%1.1%2026-05-21 21:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.09%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.48%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.43%1.1%2026-05-21 21:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.09%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.48%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.43%1.1%2026-05-21 21:50
Smarkets◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.09%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.48%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.43%1.1%2026-05-21 21:50
Matchbook◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.09%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.48%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.43%1.1%2026-05-21 21:50