The School of Odds
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Olimpia Asunción v Vasco da Gama

Kickoff: 2026-05-20 22:00 UTC

Final: Olimpia Asunción 3–1 Vasco da Gama

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Olimpia Asunción (Local)

Prediction 47.79%2.09fair odd
EV -0.593%
Edge -0.285%
Kelly -0.549%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.93%47.91%47.79%48.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.831.951.952.0854.64%51.26%51.28%48.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Vasco da Gama (Visit)

Prediction 23.21%4.31fair odd
EV -3.00%
Edge -0.717%
Kelly -0.943%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.73%23.16%23.21%24.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.873.854.1827.03%25.85%25.97%23.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.00%3.45fair odd
EV -1.39%
Edge -0.410%
Kelly -0.581%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.99%28.94%29.00%29.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.203.203.4033.33%31.29%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Olimpia Asunción (Local): 47.79%; Vasco da Gama (Visit): 23.21%; Draw: 29.00%. For Olimpia Asunción (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.09. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.08, with an expected value of -0.593%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.91%EV -0.593%E -0.285%K -0.549%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.39%EV -7.18%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.70%EV -1.39%E -0.410%K -0.581%G +0.000%2.5%2026-05-20 21:50
Coolbet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.55%EV -4.42%E -2.21%K -4.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.19%EV -4.85%E -1.18%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.26%EV -5.74%E -1.77%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-20 20:09
Unibet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.05%EV -4.42%E -2.21%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.44%EV -10.66%E -2.77%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.51%EV -4.29%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-20 21:50
Casumo🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.05%EV -4.42%E -2.21%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.44%EV -10.66%E -2.77%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.51%EV -4.29%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-20 21:50
Unibet (NL)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.05%EV -4.42%E -2.21%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.44%EV -10.66%E -2.77%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.51%EV -4.29%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-20 21:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.05%EV -4.42%E -2.21%K -4.42%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.44%EV -10.66%E -2.77%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.51%EV -4.29%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-20 21:50
1xBet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.68%EV -4.89%E -2.46%K -4.94%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.33%EV -9.50%E -2.43%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 27.99%EV -1.68%E -0.497%K -0.705%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-20 21:50
Pinnacle🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.48%EV -6.33%E -3.23%K -6.59%G +0.000%4.18I 23.92%NM 22.73%EV -3.00%E -0.717%K -0.943%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.79%EV -4.29%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-20 21:50
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -6.81%E -3.49%K -7.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.46%EV -7.18%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.43%EV -4.29%E -1.30%K -1.87%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-20 21:50
Bovada🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.69%EV -6.81%E -3.49%K -7.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.25%EV -7.18%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.06%EV -7.19%E -2.25%K -3.27%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-20 21:48
SportsBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -6.81%E -3.49%K -7.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -7.18%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -10.09%E -3.26%K -4.81%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-20 21:20
William Hill🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -6.81%E -3.49%K -7.16%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -7.18%E -1.79%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -10.09%E -3.26%K -4.81%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-20 21:49
betfred_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.17%EV -6.81%E -3.49%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -12.98%E -3.46%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -5.74%E -1.77%K -2.55%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-20 21:50
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.93%EV -6.81%E -3.49%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.21%EV -14.14%E -3.82%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.86%EV -12.99%E -4.33%K -6.50%G +0.000%11.6%2026-05-20 21:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 46.94%EV -7.28%E -3.75%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -14.14%E -3.82%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.45%EV -7.19%E -2.25%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-20 21:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 46.94%EV -7.28%E -3.75%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -14.14%E -3.82%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.45%EV -7.19%E -2.25%K -3.27%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-20 21:50
LeoVegas🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.06%EV -7.76%E -4.02%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.55%EV -14.14%E -3.82%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.39%EV -7.19%E -2.25%K -3.27%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-20 21:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.06%EV -7.76%E -4.02%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.55%EV -14.14%E -3.82%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.39%EV -7.19%E -2.25%K -3.27%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-20 21:50
NordicBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.94%EV -8.24%E -4.29%K -8.96%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -8.34%E -2.11%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -7.19%E -2.25%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-20 21:50
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.49%EV -8.72%E -4.56%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -9.50%E -2.43%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.26%EV -10.09%E -3.26%K -4.81%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-20 21:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.49%EV -8.72%E -4.56%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -9.50%E -2.43%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.26%EV -10.09%E -3.26%K -4.81%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-20 21:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.49%EV -8.72%E -4.56%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.26%EV -9.50%E -2.43%K -3.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.26%EV -10.09%E -3.26%K -4.81%G +0.000%10.3%2026-05-20 21:50
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.74%EV -8.72%E -4.56%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.50%EV -11.82%E -3.11%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.76%EV -12.99%E -4.33%K -6.50%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-20 21:19
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.60%EV -8.72%E -4.56%K -9.58%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -12.98%E -3.46%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.67%EV -12.99%E -4.33%K -6.50%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-20 21:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 47.96%EV -12.54%E -6.85%K -15.11%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.72%EV -14.14%E -3.82%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.31%EV -10.09%E -3.26%K -4.81%G +0.000%13.9%2026-05-20 21:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.72%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.08%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.19%0.7%2026-05-20 21:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.66%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.60%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.73%0.9%2026-05-20 21:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.66%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.60%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.73%0.9%2026-05-20 21:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.66%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.60%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.73%0.9%2026-05-20 21:50
Smarkets◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.46%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.50%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.03%1.3%2026-05-20 21:50