The School of Odds
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Olimpia Asunción v Vasco da Gama

Kickoff: 2026-08-20 22:00 UTC

Final: Olimpia Asunción 1–4 Vasco da Gama

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Olimpia Asunción (Local)

Prediction 34.54%2.90fair odd
EV -1.57%
Edge -0.551%
Kelly -0.848%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.63%34.43%34.70%35.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.662.652.8540.00%37.57%37.74%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Vasco da Gama (Visit)

Prediction 34.78%2.88fair odd
EV -0.875%
Edge -0.307%
Kelly -0.473%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.82%34.78%34.70%35.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.662.652.8540.00%37.56%37.74%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.68%3.26fair odd
EV -3.35%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -1.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.44%30.78%30.60%31.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.972.923.1535.71%33.64%34.25%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Olimpia Asunción (Local): 34.54%; Vasco da Gama (Visit): 34.78%; Draw: 30.68%. For Vasco da Gama (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.88. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.85, with an expected value of -0.875%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.69%EV -1.57%E -0.551%K -0.848%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.83%EV -6.79%E -2.53%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.48%EV -3.35%E -1.06%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-20 21:29
ATG (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.40%EV -3.30%E -1.18%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.02%EV -4.35%E -1.58%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.58%EV -3.35%E -1.06%K -1.56%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-20 21:54
LeoVegas🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.42%EV -5.02%E -1.83%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.05%EV -6.09%E -2.26%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV -4.89%E -1.58%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-20 21:35
Codere (IT)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.02%EV -5.02%E -1.83%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.30%EV -7.83%E -2.95%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.67%EV -6.42%E -2.10%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-20 21:20
Pinnacle🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 34.78%EV -5.37%E -1.96%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.78%EV -4.70%E -1.72%K -2.70%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.44%EV -3.96%E -1.27%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-20 21:45
DraftKings🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.88%EV -6.75%E -2.50%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.24%EV -4.35%E -1.58%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.88%EV -6.42%E -2.10%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-20 21:40
Bovada🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.66%EV -6.75%E -2.50%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.66%EV -6.09%E -2.26%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -6.42%E -2.10%K -3.13%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-20 21:49
Casumo🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.43%EV -6.75%E -2.50%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -7.83%E -2.95%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.48%EV -6.42%E -2.10%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-20 21:54
Unibet (NL)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.43%EV -6.75%E -2.50%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -7.83%E -2.95%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.48%EV -6.42%E -2.10%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-20 21:54
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.43%EV -6.75%E -2.50%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -7.83%E -2.95%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.48%EV -6.42%E -2.10%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-20 21:54
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.43%EV -6.75%E -2.50%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.08%EV -7.83%E -2.95%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.48%EV -6.42%E -2.10%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-20 21:54
SportsBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.54%EV -8.48%E -3.20%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.90%EV -6.09%E -2.26%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.56%EV -11.02%E -3.80%K -5.80%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-20 21:40
NordicBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.39%EV -8.48%E -3.20%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.39%EV -7.83%E -2.95%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.21%EV -10.41%E -3.56%K -5.42%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-20 21:45
Unibet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 33.63%EV -8.48%E -3.20%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.64%EV -13.05%E -5.22%K -8.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.73%EV -11.02%E -3.80%K -5.80%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-20 21:20
1xBet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.57%EV -9.17%E -3.49%K -5.62%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.82%EV -0.875%E -0.307%K -0.473%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.60%EV -9.18%E -3.10%K -4.68%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-20 21:52
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -9.51%E -3.63%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -6.09%E -2.26%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -11.02%E -3.80%K -5.80%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-20 21:40
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -9.51%E -3.63%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -6.09%E -2.26%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -11.02%E -3.80%K -5.80%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-20 21:39
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -9.51%E -3.63%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -6.09%E -2.26%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -11.02%E -3.80%K -5.80%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-20 21:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -9.51%E -3.63%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.77%EV -6.09%E -2.26%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.44%EV -11.02%E -3.80%K -5.80%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-20 21:40
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.37%EV -9.51%E -3.63%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.37%EV -8.87%E -3.39%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.26%EV -11.64%E -4.04%K -6.19%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-20 20:54
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.56%EV -10.20%E -3.92%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.62%EV -4.35%E -1.58%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.82%EV -7.95%E -2.65%K -3.98%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-20 20:04
Sky Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.28%EV -10.20%E -3.92%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.89%EV -8.53%E -3.24%K -5.23%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.83%EV -14.09%E -5.03%K -7.83%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-20 21:40
PMU (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.22%EV -10.20%E -3.92%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.89%EV -11.31%E -4.43%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.89%EV -11.64%E -4.04%K -6.19%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-20 21:54
Virgin Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.22%EV -10.20%E -3.92%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.89%EV -11.31%E -4.43%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.89%EV -11.64%E -4.04%K -6.19%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-20 21:54
LiveScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.22%EV -10.20%E -3.92%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.89%EV -11.31%E -4.43%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.89%EV -11.64%E -4.04%K -6.19%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-20 21:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.22%EV -10.20%E -3.92%K -6.38%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.89%EV -11.31%E -4.43%K -7.30%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.89%EV -11.64%E -4.04%K -6.19%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-20 21:54
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.51%EV -13.66%E -5.46%K -9.11%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.88%EV -8.87%E -3.39%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.61%EV -11.02%E -3.80%K -5.80%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-20 21:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.88I 34.72%NM 34.56%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.85%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.59%0.5%2026-08-20 21:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.88I 34.72%NM 34.48%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.00%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.52%0.7%2026-08-20 21:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.84I 35.21%NM 34.95%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.54%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.51%0.7%2026-08-20 21:55
Smarkets◎2.86I 34.97%NM 34.55%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.08%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.37%1.2%2026-08-20 21:55