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Olimpia Asunción v Audax Italiano

Kickoff: 2026-05-27 22:00 UTC

Final: Olimpia Asunción 3–1 Audax Italiano

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Olimpia Asunción (Local)

Prediction 61.39%1.63fair odd
EV -0.547%
Edge -0.338%
Kelly -0.882%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.53%61.30%61.42%62.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.531.531.6269.44%65.50%65.36%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Audax Italiano (Visit)

Prediction 15.62%6.40fair odd
EV -0.180%
Edge -0.028%
Kelly -0.033%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.39

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.82%15.72%15.88%17.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.645.606.3920.00%17.72%17.86%15.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.99%4.35fair odd
EV -1.15%
Edge -0.268%
Kelly -0.349%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.91%22.98%22.70%24.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.003.954.3026.32%24.99%25.32%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Olimpia Asunción (Local): 61.39%; Audax Italiano (Visit): 15.62%; Draw: 22.99%. For Audax Italiano (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.40. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 6.39, with an expected value of -0.180%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 60.06%EV -0.547%E -0.338%K -0.882%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.78%EV -9.40%E -1.62%K -1.96%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.17%EV -3.45%E -0.822%K -1.08%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-27 21:19
Coolbet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.73%EV -3.62%E -2.30%K -6.34%G +0.000%6.30I 15.87%NM 15.13%EV -1.59%E -0.252%K -0.299%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.14%EV -9.20%E -2.33%K -3.12%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-27 21:09
1xBet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.77%EV -4.23%E -2.71%K -7.55%G +0.000%5.73I 17.45%NM 16.55%EV -10.49%E -1.83%K -2.22%G +0.000%4.18I 23.92%NM 22.68%EV -3.91%E -0.936%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-27 21:50
Casumo🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.28%EV -4.23%E -2.71%K -7.55%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV -12.52%E -2.24%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -5.75%E -1.40%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-27 21:09
Unibet (NL)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.28%EV -4.23%E -2.71%K -7.55%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV -12.52%E -2.24%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -5.75%E -1.40%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-27 21:09
Unibet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.28%EV -4.23%E -2.71%K -7.55%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV -12.52%E -2.24%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -5.75%E -1.40%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-27 21:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.28%EV -4.23%E -2.71%K -7.55%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV -12.52%E -2.24%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -5.75%E -1.40%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-27 21:10
Bovada🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.43%EV -4.84%E -3.13%K -8.81%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.73%EV -12.52%E -2.24%K -2.72%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -5.75%E -1.40%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-27 21:47
NordicBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.54%EV -4.84%E -3.13%K -8.81%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.09%EV -15.65%E -2.90%K -3.56%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.37%EV -9.20%E -2.33%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-27 21:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.73%EV -5.46%E -3.54%K -10.11%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.00%EV -14.08%E -2.56%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.27%EV -3.45%E -0.822%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-27 21:40
betfred_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.22%EV -6.07%E -3.97%K -11.46%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -14.08%E -2.56%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -8.05%E -2.01%K -2.68%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-27 20:29
William Hill🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.01%EV -6.07%E -3.97%K -11.46%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.83%EV -9.40%E -1.62%K -1.96%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -12.65%E -3.33%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-27 21:49
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.93%EV -6.07%E -3.97%K -11.46%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -10.18%E -1.77%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -12.65%E -3.33%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-27 21:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.93%EV -6.07%E -3.97%K -11.46%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -10.18%E -1.77%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -12.65%E -3.33%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-27 21:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.93%EV -6.07%E -3.97%K -11.46%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -10.18%E -1.77%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -12.65%E -3.33%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-27 21:50
Coral🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.53%EV -6.07%E -3.97%K -11.46%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.91%EV -21.89%E -4.38%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -12.65%E -3.33%K -4.52%G +0.000%11.7%2026-05-27 19:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.20%EV -6.69%E -4.40%K -12.86%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -14.08%E -2.56%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.16%EV -9.20%E -2.33%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-27 21:19
LiveScore Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.20%EV -6.69%E -4.40%K -12.86%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.64%EV -14.08%E -2.56%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.16%EV -9.20%E -2.33%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-27 21:19
Pinnacle🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.73%EV -7.30%E -4.83%K -14.31%G +0.000%6.39I 15.65%NM 14.82%EV -0.180%E -0.028%K -0.033%G +0.000%4.22I 23.70%NM 22.45%EV -2.99%E -0.709%K -0.929%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-27 21:40
DraftKings🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.39%EV -7.30%E -4.83%K -14.31%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.70%EV -6.27%E -1.05%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -1.15%E -0.268%K -0.349%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-27 21:39
LeoVegas🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.36%EV -7.30%E -4.83%K -14.31%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.57%EV -14.08%E -2.56%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.07%EV -9.20%E -2.33%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-27 21:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.36%EV -7.30%E -4.83%K -14.31%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.57%EV -14.08%E -2.56%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.07%EV -9.20%E -2.33%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-27 21:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 60.36%EV -7.30%E -4.83%K -14.31%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.57%EV -14.08%E -2.56%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.07%EV -9.20%E -2.33%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-27 21:19
SportsBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 62.02%EV -9.76%E -6.64%K -20.76%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.19%EV -6.27%E -1.05%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.79%EV -8.05%E -2.01%K -2.68%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-27 20:49
Unibet (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 60.25%EV -9.76%E -6.64%K -20.76%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.03%EV -18.77%E -3.61%K -4.47%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.71%EV -10.35%E -2.65%K -3.57%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-27 21:40
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -11.60%E -8.05%K -26.36%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -14.08%E -2.56%K -3.13%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -8.05%E -2.01%K -2.68%G +0.000%12.6%2026-05-27 21:20
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.31%EV -11.60%E -8.05%K -26.36%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.05%EV -14.08%E -2.56%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.64%EV -10.35%E -2.65%K -3.57%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-27 21:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 63.18%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.12%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.70%0.2%2026-05-27 21:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 63.18%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.12%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.70%0.2%2026-05-27 21:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.57I 63.69%NM 63.32%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.06%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.61%0.6%2026-05-27 21:50
Smarkets◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.27%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.37%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.36%1.6%2026-05-27 21:50