The School of Odds
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O'Higgins v Millonarios

Kickoff: 2026-04-08 00:02 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

O'Higgins (Local)

Prediction 34.84%2.87fair odd
EV -0.693%
Edge -0.243%
Kelly -0.374%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.95%34.83%34.77%35.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.662.632.8540.82%37.65%38.02%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Millonarios (Visit)

Prediction 35.14%2.85fair odd
EV -1.61%
Edge -0.577%
Kelly -0.897%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.25%35.04%35.16%35.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.632.622.8040.00%38.00%38.17%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.02%3.33fair odd
EV -3.34%
Edge -1.04%
Kelly -1.51%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.52%30.13%30.07%31.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.873.033.023.2234.84%33.04%33.06%31.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: O'Higgins (Local): 34.84%; Millonarios (Visit): 35.14%; Draw: 30.02%. For O'Higgins (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.87. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.85, with an expected value of -0.693%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 34.03%EV -0.693%E -0.243%K -0.374%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 35.27%EV -3.37%E -1.23%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.69%EV -5.14%E -1.63%K -2.38%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-07 23:59
ATG (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.78%EV -2.43%E -0.870%K -1.35%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.78%EV -1.61%E -0.577%K -0.897%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.43%EV -3.94%E -1.23%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.7%2026-04-07 23:59
Pinnacle🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 35.02%EV -5.22%E -1.92%K -3.04%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.41%EV -5.48%E -2.04%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.58%EV -3.34%E -1.04%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-07 23:59
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.83%EV -5.92%E -2.19%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.83%EV -5.13%E -1.90%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-07 23:59
Casumo🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.83%EV -5.92%E -2.19%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.83%EV -5.13%E -1.90%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-07 23:59
Unibet (NL)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.83%EV -5.92%E -2.19%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.83%EV -5.13%E -1.90%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-08 00:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.83%EV -5.92%E -2.19%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.83%EV -5.13%E -1.90%K -3.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-07 23:59
DraftKings🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.60%EV -5.92%E -2.19%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.26%EV -6.88%E -2.60%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -6.95%E -2.24%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-08 00:01
Unibet (UK)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.86%EV -7.66%E -2.89%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.86%EV -6.88%E -2.60%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.29%EV -8.45%E -2.77%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-07 23:59
Virgin Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.76%EV -7.66%E -2.89%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.03%EV -7.59%E -2.89%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -8.45%E -2.77%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-07 23:59
NordicBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.63%EV -7.66%E -2.89%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.29%EV -8.64%E -3.32%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.08%EV -8.45%E -2.77%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-08 00:01
Coolbet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.24%EV -8.36%E -3.18%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 35.24%EV -7.59%E -2.89%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.52%EV -5.75%E -1.83%K -2.68%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-08 00:01
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.62%EV -8.36%E -3.18%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.02%EV -8.64%E -3.32%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -9.95%E -3.32%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-07 23:59
LeoVegas🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.62%EV -8.36%E -3.18%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.02%EV -8.64%E -3.32%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -9.95%E -3.32%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-07 23:59
LiveScore Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.62%EV -8.36%E -3.18%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.02%EV -8.64%E -3.32%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.35%EV -9.95%E -3.32%K -4.97%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-08 00:00
Sky Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.15%EV -8.36%E -3.18%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.92%EV -12.16%E -4.86%K -8.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.93%EV -9.95%E -3.32%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-08 00:00
SportsBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.44%EV -8.71%E -3.32%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.44%EV -7.94%E -3.03%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.12%EV -12.95%E -4.47%K -6.82%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-07 23:59
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.44%EV -8.71%E -3.32%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.44%EV -7.94%E -3.03%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.12%EV -12.95%E -4.47%K -6.82%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-08 00:00
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.44%EV -8.71%E -3.32%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.44%EV -7.94%E -3.03%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.12%EV -12.95%E -4.47%K -6.82%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-08 00:01
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.44%EV -8.71%E -3.32%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.44%EV -7.94%E -3.03%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.12%EV -12.95%E -4.47%K -6.82%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-08 00:01
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.44%EV -8.71%E -3.32%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.44%EV -7.94%E -3.03%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.12%EV -12.95%E -4.47%K -6.82%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-08 00:01
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.23%EV -8.71%E -3.32%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -12.16%E -4.86%K -8.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -9.95%E -3.32%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-08 00:01
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.95%EV -9.40%E -3.62%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.30%EV -12.16%E -4.86%K -8.10%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 30.75%EV -13.85%E -4.83%K -7.41%G +0.000%13.3%2026-04-08 00:01
Unibet (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.64%EV -14.63%E -5.97%K -10.09%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.25%EV -10.40%E -4.08%K -6.71%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.11%EV -12.95%E -4.47%K -6.82%G +0.000%14.5%2026-04-07 23:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.86I 34.97%NM 34.39%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.88%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.73%1.7%2026-04-08 00:01
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.82I 35.46%NM 34.68%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.69%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.63%2.3%2026-04-08 00:01
Smarkets◎2.82I 35.46%NM 33.84%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.87%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.29%4.8%2026-04-08 00:01
Matchbook◎2.66I 37.59%NM 34.48%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.40%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.12%9.0%2026-04-08 00:01
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.84I 35.21%NM 26.68%1.55I 64.52%NM 48.88%3.10I 32.26%NM 24.44%32.0%2026-04-08 00:01