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Montevideo City Torque v Club Cienciano
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Montevideo City Torque (Local)
Prediction 16.40%6.10fair odd
EV +3.32%
Edge +0.527%
Kelly +0.627%
Growth +0.021%
assuming max odds 6.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.19%16.45%16.30%18.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.565.556.3020.00%17.99%18.02%15.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Club Cienciano (Visit)
Prediction 60.38%1.66fair odd
EV -2.78%
Edge -1.73%
Kelly -4.56%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.61
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.57%60.34%60.46%61.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.461.541.541.6168.49%65.04%64.94%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 23.22%4.31fair odd
EV +1.23%
Edge +0.281%
Kelly +0.365%
Growth +0.004%
assuming max odds 4.36
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.51%23.20%23.24%25.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.553.903.904.3628.17%25.63%25.64%22.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Montevideo City Torque (Local): 16.40%; Club Cienciano (Visit): 60.38%; Draw: 23.22%. For Montevideo City Torque (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.10. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.32%.
Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 6.30I 15.87%NM 15.19%EV +3.32%E +0.527%K +0.627%G +0.021% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.75%EV -6.41%E -4.13%K -11.65%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.06%EV -3.65%E -0.879%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-09 16:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.47%EV +2.50%E +0.400%K +0.477%G +0.012% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.05%EV -2.78%E -1.73%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.48%EV -8.29%E -2.10%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-08 06:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 5.93I 16.86%NM 16.55%EV -2.75%E -0.463%K -0.557%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.95%EV -2.78%E -1.73%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 4.36I 22.94%NM 22.51%EV +1.23%E +0.281%K +0.365%G +0.004% | 1.9% | 2026-09-09 17:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.52%EV -3.24%E -0.549%K -0.661%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.06%EV -6.41%E -4.13%K -11.65%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.43%EV -16.42%E -4.56%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-09 16:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 5.87I 17.04%NM 16.01%EV -3.73%E -0.635%K -0.766%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.44%EV -7.61%E -4.98%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 4.17I 23.98%NM 22.54%EV -3.19%E -0.764%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-09 16:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.08%EV -4.88%E -0.841%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.39%EV -5.20%E -3.31%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -11.78%E -3.10%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-09-08 06:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.01%EV -4.88%E -0.841%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.54%EV -5.80%E -3.72%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.44%EV -11.78%E -3.10%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-08 06:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.01%EV -4.88%E -0.841%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.54%EV -5.80%E -3.72%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.44%EV -11.78%E -3.10%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-08 06:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.01%EV -4.88%E -0.841%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.54%EV -5.80%E -3.72%K -10.36%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.44%EV -11.78%E -3.10%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-09-08 06:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -5.70%E -0.991%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.35%EV -6.41%E -4.13%K -11.65%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.38%EV -7.13%E -1.78%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-09 16:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.14%EV -5.70%E -0.991%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.66%EV -7.61%E -4.98%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.20%EV -7.13%E -1.78%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-09 15:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.73%EV -8.16%E -1.46%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.43%EV -6.41%E -4.13%K -11.65%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -4.81%E -1.17%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-09 16:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.73%EV -8.16%E -1.46%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.43%EV -6.41%E -4.13%K -11.65%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -4.81%E -1.17%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-09 15:21 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.63%EV -8.16%E -1.46%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.09%EV -6.41%E -4.13%K -11.65%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.28%EV -7.13%E -1.78%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-09 16:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.91%EV -9.80%E -1.78%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.24%EV -5.20%E -3.31%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -9.45%E -2.42%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-09 15:25 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.75%EV -9.80%E -1.78%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.22%EV -7.61%E -4.98%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -7.13%E -1.78%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-09 15:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.68%EV -9.80%E -1.78%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.37%EV -8.22%E -5.41%K -15.80%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%EV -7.13%E -1.78%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-08 10:44 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -9.80%E -1.78%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.69%EV -9.43%E -6.28%K -18.85%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -7.13%E -1.78%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-09-06 00:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.44%EV -11.44%E -2.12%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 60.80%EV -11.84%E -8.11%K -25.74%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.76%EV -9.45%E -2.42%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-09 16:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.34%EV -11.44%E -2.12%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.81%EV -9.43%E -6.28%K -18.85%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.85%EV -17.58%E -4.95%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-09-08 06:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.34%EV -11.44%E -2.12%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.81%EV -9.43%E -6.28%K -18.85%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.85%EV -17.58%E -4.95%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-09-08 06:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 16.34%EV -11.44%E -2.12%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.81%EV -9.43%E -6.28%K -18.85%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.85%EV -17.58%E -4.95%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-09-08 06:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.00%EV -13.90%E -2.65%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 59.51%EV -9.43%E -6.28%K -18.85%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -11.78%E -3.10%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-09-09 15:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.16%EV -18.00%E -3.60%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.57%EV -6.41%E -4.13%K -11.65%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.28%EV -9.45%E -2.42%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-09-09 16:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.02%EV -18.00%E -3.60%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.88%EV -7.61%E -4.98%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -9.45%E -2.42%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-09 16:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.02%EV -18.00%E -3.60%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.88%EV -7.61%E -4.98%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -9.45%E -2.42%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-09 16:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.02%EV -18.00%E -3.60%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 58.88%EV -7.61%E -4.98%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -9.45%E -2.42%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-09 16:10 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.65%EV -18.00%E -3.60%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 58.82%EV -9.43%E -6.28%K -18.85%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.53%EV -12.94%E -3.45%K -4.70%G +0.000% | 13.3% | 2026-09-08 10:44 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.50% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.02% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.48% | 1.4% | 2026-09-09 17:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.50% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 62.02% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.48% | 1.4% | 2026-09-09 17:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.88% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.75% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 23.38% | 1.9% | 2026-09-09 17:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.54% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.97% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.49% | 3.8% | 2026-09-09 17:31 |