The School of Odds
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Montevideo City Torque v Club Cienciano

Kickoff: 2026-09-18 00:30 UTC

Final: Montevideo City Torque 3–0 Club Cienciano

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Montevideo City Torque (Local)

Prediction 62.35%1.60fair odd
EV -2.74%
Edge -1.76%
Kelly -4.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.54%62.36%62.30%63.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.481.491.5670.42%67.39%67.11%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Club Cienciano (Visit)

Prediction 15.92%6.28fair odd
EV +1.86%
Edge +0.291%
Kelly +0.345%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 6.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.26%15.91%15.97%17.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.255.755.786.4019.05%17.39%17.32%15.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.74%4.60fair odd
EV +2.16%
Edge +0.460%
Kelly +0.584%
Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.60%21.73%21.73%23.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.244.304.7025.97%23.58%23.26%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Montevideo City Torque (Local): 62.35%; Club Cienciano (Visit): 15.92%; Draw: 21.74%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.60. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.16%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.91%EV -4.61%E -3.01%K -8.69%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.28%EV +1.86%E +0.291%K +0.345%G +0.006%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.81%EV +2.16%E +0.460%K +0.584%G +0.013%2.3%2026-09-17 23:34
1xBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.36%E -2.17%K -6.11%G +0.000%5.31I 18.83%NM 17.88%EV -15.49%E -2.92%K -3.59%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.87%EV -1.10%E -0.241%K -0.309%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-18 00:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.94%EV -9.60%E -6.62%K -21.32%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -4.51%E -0.751%K -0.901%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.60%EV -2.18%E -0.486%K -0.624%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-18 00:29
Pinnacle🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.12%EV -5.23%E -3.44%K -10.06%G +0.000%6.26I 15.97%NM 15.33%EV -0.367%E -0.059%K -0.070%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.56%EV -3.27%E -0.735%K -0.948%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-18 00:20
Coolbet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.59%EV -2.74%E -1.76%K -4.89%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.57%EV -7.69%E -1.33%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.84%EV -4.36%E -0.991%K -1.28%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-17 13:35
DraftKings🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.86%EV -6.48%E -4.32%K -12.96%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.71%EV -4.51%E -0.751%K -0.901%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -4.36%E -0.991%K -1.28%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-18 00:00
Unibet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.67%EV -7.10%E -4.77%K -14.49%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.10%EV -7.69%E -1.33%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -4.36%E -0.991%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-17 23:34
Casumo🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.67%EV -7.10%E -4.77%K -14.49%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.10%EV -7.69%E -1.33%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -4.36%E -0.991%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-17 23:34
Unibet (NL)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.67%EV -7.10%E -4.77%K -14.49%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.10%EV -7.69%E -1.33%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -4.36%E -0.991%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-17 23:34
Svenska Spel🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 62.67%EV -7.10%E -4.77%K -14.49%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.10%EV -7.69%E -1.33%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.22%EV -4.36%E -0.991%K -1.28%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-17 23:34
betfred_uk🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 63.59%EV -10.22%E -7.10%K -23.23%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.26%EV -4.51%E -0.751%K -0.901%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.15%EV -5.88%E -1.36%K -1.77%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-18 00:29
Bovada🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.97%EV -5.86%E -3.88%K -11.48%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.27%EV -8.48%E -1.48%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.76%EV -6.53%E -1.52%K -1.98%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-18 00:25
Codere (IT)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.21%EV -6.48%E -4.32%K -12.96%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.09%EV -7.69%E -1.33%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -6.53%E -1.52%K -1.98%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-17 22:35
SportsBet🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 63.18%EV -8.97%E -6.15%K -19.51%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.37%EV -4.51%E -0.751%K -0.901%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.45%EV -6.53%E -1.52%K -1.98%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-17 23:50
LeoVegas🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.17%EV -7.73%E -5.22%K -16.10%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.43%EV -10.87%E -1.94%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.40%EV -6.53%E -1.52%K -1.98%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-18 00:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.65%EV -5.23%E -3.44%K -10.06%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -8.48%E -1.48%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.05%EV -7.62%E -1.79%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-18 00:29
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 62.32%EV -10.22%E -7.10%K -23.23%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.32%EV -12.46%E -2.27%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.37%EV -8.71%E -2.07%K -2.72%G +0.000%11.4%2026-09-17 23:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.16%EV -10.84%E -7.58%K -25.22%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.16%EV -12.46%E -2.27%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.68%EV -10.88%E -2.65%K -3.51%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-17 23:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 62.16%EV -10.84%E -7.58%K -25.22%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.16%EV -12.46%E -2.27%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.68%EV -10.88%E -2.65%K -3.51%G +0.000%12.5%2026-09-17 23:34
LiveScore Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 62.50%EV -11.47%E -8.08%K -27.30%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 15.85%EV -10.87%E -1.94%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.65%EV -10.88%E -2.65%K -3.51%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-18 00:29
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.21%EV -6.48%E -4.32%K -12.96%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.83%EV -7.69%E -1.33%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -13.05%E -3.26%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-18 00:19
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.13%EV -6.48%E -4.32%K -12.96%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -8.48%E -1.48%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -13.05%E -3.26%K -4.35%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-18 00:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.13%EV -6.48%E -4.32%K -12.96%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -8.48%E -1.48%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -13.05%E -3.26%K -4.35%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-18 00:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.13%EV -6.48%E -4.32%K -12.96%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.95%EV -8.48%E -1.48%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.92%EV -13.05%E -3.26%K -4.35%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-18 00:15
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 60.54%EV -7.73%E -5.22%K -16.10%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.07%EV -16.44%E -3.13%K -3.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.40%EV -13.05%E -3.26%K -4.35%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-17 20:49
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.66%EV -10.22%E -7.10%K -23.23%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.14%EV -12.46%E -2.27%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -13.05%E -3.26%K -4.35%G +0.000%12.6%2026-09-17 23:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 61.45%EV -10.84%E -7.58%K -25.22%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.58%EV -15.65%E -2.95%K -3.64%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.97%EV -13.05%E -3.26%K -4.35%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-18 00:28
NordicBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.83%EV -6.48%E -4.32%K -12.96%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.47%EV -6.10%E -1.03%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.70%EV -16.31%E -4.24%K -5.72%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-18 00:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.76%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.07%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.16%0.5%2026-09-18 00:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.76%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.07%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.16%0.5%2026-09-18 00:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.56I 64.10%NM 63.76%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.07%4.70I 21.28%NM 21.16%0.5%2026-09-18 00:25
Smarkets◎1.54I 64.94%NM 64.06%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.95%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.99%1.4%2026-09-18 00:25