The School of Odds
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Millonarios v CA Boston River

Kickoff: 2026-04-16 02:00 UTC

Final: Millonarios 1–0 CA Boston River

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Millonarios (Local)

Prediction 80.37%1.24fair odd
EV -2.75%
Edge -2.27%
Kelly -13.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.49%80.26%80.37%81.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.101.161.171.2190.91%86.39%85.47%82.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

CA Boston River (Visit)

Prediction 5.33%18.77fair odd
EV +1.22%
Edge +0.064%
Kelly +0.068%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 19.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.96%5.38%5.33%6.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
13.0016.0316.0019.007.69%6.24%6.25%5.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 14.30%6.99fair odd
EV +5.11%
Edge +0.695%
Kelly +0.804%
Growth +0.041%

assuming max odds 7.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.77%14.37%14.30%15.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.706.526.507.3517.54%15.34%15.38%13.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Millonarios (Local): 80.37%; CA Boston River (Visit): 5.33%; Draw: 14.30%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.99. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.11%.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 81.66%EV -4.36%E -3.66%K -22.93%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.11%EV +1.22%E +0.064%K +0.068%G +0.001%7.35I 13.61%NM 13.22%EV +5.11%E +0.695%K +0.804%G +0.041%2.9%2026-04-16 01:49
ATG (SE)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 80.10%EV -2.75%E -2.27%K -13.09%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 6.06%EV -14.76%E -0.923%K -0.984%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.85%EV +0.103%E +0.015%K +0.017%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-16 01:54
Pinnacle🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.33%EV -6.77%E -5.83%K -42.30%G +0.000%18.15I 5.51%NM 5.20%EV -3.31%E -0.182%K -0.193%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV +0.103%E +0.015%K +0.017%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-16 01:54
DraftKings🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 80.63%EV -5.96%E -5.10%K -35.09%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.90%EV -14.76%E -0.923%K -0.984%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV +0.103%E +0.015%K +0.017%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-16 01:19
Bovada🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.76%EV -6.77%E -5.83%K -42.30%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.86%EV -14.76%E -0.923%K -0.984%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.38%EV +0.103%E +0.015%K +0.017%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-16 01:50
SportsBet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 81.71%EV -10.79%E -9.72%K -98.06%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.34%EV -9.43%E -0.555%K -0.590%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.96%EV +0.103%E +0.015%K +0.017%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-16 01:34
Paddy Power🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 81.27%EV -11.59%E -10.54%K -115.91%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 5.96%EV -20.09%E -1.34%K -1.43%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%EV +0.103%E +0.015%K +0.017%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-16 01:34
Unibet (NL)🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.09%EV -5.16%E -4.37%K -28.67%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.91%EV -14.76%E -0.923%K -0.984%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.00%EV -3.47%E -0.514%K -0.604%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-16 01:54
Unibet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.09%EV -5.16%E -4.37%K -28.67%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.91%EV -14.76%E -0.923%K -0.984%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.00%EV -3.47%E -0.514%K -0.604%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-16 01:54
Casumo🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.09%EV -5.16%E -4.37%K -28.67%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.91%EV -14.76%E -0.923%K -0.984%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.00%EV -3.47%E -0.514%K -0.604%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-16 01:54
Svenska Spel🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.09%EV -5.16%E -4.37%K -28.67%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.91%EV -14.76%E -0.923%K -0.984%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.00%EV -3.47%E -0.514%K -0.604%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-16 01:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.77%EV -7.57%E -6.58%K -50.48%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.12%EV -20.09%E -1.34%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -7.05%E -1.08%K -1.28%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-16 01:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.91%EV -8.38%E -7.35%K -59.83%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.07%EV -20.09%E -1.34%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.02%EV -7.05%E -1.08%K -1.28%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-16 01:53
LiveScore Bet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 79.91%EV -8.38%E -7.35%K -59.83%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.07%EV -20.09%E -1.34%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.02%EV -7.05%E -1.08%K -1.28%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-16 01:54
Coral🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 79.03%EV -7.57%E -6.58%K -50.48%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.99%EV -30.74%E -2.36%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.98%EV -7.05%E -1.08%K -1.28%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-16 01:19
Sky Bet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 79.61%EV -10.79%E -9.72%K -98.06%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.80%EV -30.74%E -2.36%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.59%EV -7.05%E -1.08%K -1.28%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-16 01:35
Coolbet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.94%EV -5.16%E -4.37%K -28.67%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 4.96%EV +1.22%E +0.064%K +0.068%G +0.001%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.09%EV -10.62%E -1.70%K -2.02%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-16 01:25
LeoVegas🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 78.98%EV -7.57%E -6.58%K -50.48%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.49%EV -25.42%E -1.82%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.53%EV -10.62%E -1.70%K -2.02%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-16 01:24
William Hill🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.12%EV -5.96%E -5.10%K -35.09%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.45%EV -9.43%E -0.555%K -0.590%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.43%EV -14.20%E -2.37%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-16 01:30
888sport🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.12%EV -5.96%E -5.10%K -35.09%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.45%EV -9.43%E -0.555%K -0.590%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.43%EV -14.20%E -2.37%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-16 01:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.12%EV -5.96%E -5.10%K -35.09%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.45%EV -9.43%E -0.555%K -0.590%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.43%EV -14.20%E -2.37%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-16 01:29
888sport (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.12%EV -5.96%E -5.10%K -35.09%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.45%EV -9.43%E -0.555%K -0.590%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.43%EV -14.20%E -2.37%K -2.84%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-16 01:30
betfred_uk🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 78.99%EV -8.38%E -7.35%K -59.83%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.00%EV -20.09%E -1.34%K -1.43%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.01%EV -14.20%E -2.37%K -2.84%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-16 01:19
NordicBet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.27%EV -5.96%E -5.10%K -35.09%G +0.000%18.50I 5.41%NM 5.01%EV -1.44%E -0.078%K -0.082%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.72%EV -15.63%E -2.65%K -3.19%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-16 01:34
Unibet (FR)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 78.49%EV -10.79%E -9.72%K -98.06%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.22%EV -25.42%E -1.82%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 15.29%EV -18.49%E -3.24%K -3.93%G +0.000%14.8%2026-04-16 01:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.18I 84.75%NM 83.91%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.30%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.79%1.0%2026-04-16 01:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.18I 84.75%NM 83.74%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.49%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.76%1.2%2026-04-16 01:49
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.18I 84.75%NM 83.74%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.49%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.76%1.2%2026-04-16 01:49
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.18I 84.75%NM 83.74%22.00I 4.55%NM 4.49%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.76%1.2%2026-04-16 01:39
Smarkets◎1.17I 85.47%NM 83.45%21.01I 4.76%NM 4.65%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.91%2.4%2026-04-16 01:55