The School of Odds
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Macará v Santos

Kickoff: 2026-08-20 22:00 UTC

Final: Macará 0–0 Santos

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Macará (Local)

Prediction 45.19%2.21fair odd
EV -2.85%
Edge -1.33%
Kelly -2.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.62%45.28%44.94%46.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.042.052.1551.28%48.93%48.78%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Santos (Visit)

Prediction 25.55%3.91fair odd
EV +0.175%
Edge +0.045%
Kelly +0.060%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.28%25.43%25.84%27.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.563.503.9230.30%28.09%28.57%25.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.26%3.42fair odd
EV -1.98%
Edge -0.592%
Kelly -0.844%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.56%29.28%29.23%30.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.173.153.3533.33%31.58%31.75%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Macará (Local): 45.19%; Santos (Visit): 25.55%; Draw: 29.26%. For Santos (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.91. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.92, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.175%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.43%EV -7.37%E -3.59%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.28%EV +0.175%E +0.045%K +0.060%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.29%EV -4.91%E -1.51%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-20 21:45
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.23%EV -7.37%E -3.59%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.61%EV -1.61%E -0.419%K -0.566%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.16%EV -4.91%E -1.51%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-20 21:45
Bovada🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.48%EV -9.63%E -4.81%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -2.89%E -0.761%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -6.37%E -1.99%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-20 21:49
SportsBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.66%EV -8.72%E -4.32%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -4.17%E -1.11%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -9.30%E -3.00%K -4.43%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-20 21:45
Coolbet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.65%EV -2.85%E -1.33%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.81%EV -4.94%E -1.33%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.54%EV -4.91%E -1.51%K -2.18%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-20 21:49
LeoVegas🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.37%EV -5.11%E -2.43%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.75%EV -5.45%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.87%EV -3.45%E -1.04%K -1.50%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-20 21:54
NordicBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.51%EV -8.72%E -4.32%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -5.45%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -9.30%E -3.00%K -4.43%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-20 21:35
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.31%EV -9.63%E -4.81%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -5.45%E -1.47%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -12.22%E -4.07%K -6.11%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-20 21:45
1xBet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.03%EV -8.27%E -4.07%K -8.03%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.39%EV -5.96%E -1.62%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 28.58%EV -4.32%E -1.32%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-20 21:52
ATG (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.94%EV -3.30%E -1.54%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.35%EV -6.72%E -1.84%K -2.54%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.71%EV -1.98%E -0.592%K -0.844%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-20 21:54
Unibet (UK)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.89%EV -6.01%E -2.89%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -8.00%E -2.22%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.18%EV -6.37%E -1.99%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-20 21:40
Codere (IT)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.01%EV -6.46%E -3.12%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -8.00%E -2.22%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.11%EV -6.37%E -1.99%K -2.90%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-20 21:45
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -9.63%E -4.81%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -8.00%E -2.22%K -3.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -12.22%E -4.07%K -6.11%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-20 21:45
Casumo🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.76%EV -6.01%E -2.89%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -10.56%E -3.02%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -4.91%E -1.51%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-20 21:54
Unibet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.76%EV -6.01%E -2.89%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -10.56%E -3.02%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -4.91%E -1.51%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-20 21:54
Unibet (NL)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.76%EV -6.01%E -2.89%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -10.56%E -3.02%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -4.91%E -1.51%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-20 21:54
Svenska Spel🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.76%EV -6.01%E -2.89%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -10.56%E -3.02%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -4.91%E -1.51%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-20 21:54
888sport🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -7.37%E -3.59%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -10.56%E -3.02%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.30%E -3.00%K -4.43%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-20 21:49
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -7.37%E -3.59%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -10.56%E -3.02%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.30%E -3.00%K -4.43%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-20 21:49
888sport (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -7.37%E -3.59%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -10.56%E -3.02%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.30%E -3.00%K -4.43%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-20 21:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -7.37%E -3.59%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -10.56%E -3.02%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -9.30%E -3.00%K -4.43%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-20 21:49
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -11.89%E -6.10%K -12.51%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -10.56%E -3.02%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -9.30%E -3.00%K -4.43%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-20 21:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.40%EV -11.89%E -6.10%K -12.51%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -13.11%E -3.86%K -5.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.56%EV -9.30%E -3.00%K -4.43%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-20 21:39
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -5.11%E -2.43%K -4.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -15.67%E -4.75%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -6.37%E -1.99%K -2.90%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-20 21:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -9.63%E -4.81%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -15.67%E -4.75%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -9.30%E -3.00%K -4.43%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-20 21:54
Virgin Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -9.63%E -4.81%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -15.67%E -4.75%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -9.30%E -3.00%K -4.43%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-20 21:54
PMU (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -9.63%E -4.81%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -15.67%E -4.75%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -9.30%E -3.00%K -4.43%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-20 21:54
LiveScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -9.63%E -4.81%K -9.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -15.67%E -4.75%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -9.30%E -3.00%K -4.43%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-20 21:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.16I 46.30%NM 46.05%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.26%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.69%0.5%2026-08-20 21:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.16I 46.30%NM 46.05%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.26%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.69%0.5%2026-08-20 21:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.16I 46.30%NM 46.05%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.26%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.69%0.5%2026-08-20 21:50
Smarkets◎2.16I 46.30%NM 45.57%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.61%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.83%1.6%2026-08-20 21:50