The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Macará v CA Tigre BA

Kickoff: 2026-05-07 00:00 UTC

Final: Macará 2–2 CA Tigre BA

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Macará (Local)

Prediction 39.47%2.53fair odd
EV -2.10%
Edge -0.848%
Kelly -1.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.55%39.39%39.53%40.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.352.382.4846.51%42.49%42.02%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

CA Tigre BA (Visit)

Prediction 28.22%3.54fair odd
EV -2.36%
Edge -0.681%
Kelly -0.958%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.46

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.51%28.18%28.32%30.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.213.253.4633.33%31.19%30.77%28.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.30%3.10fair odd
EV +3.37%
Edge +1.05%
Kelly +1.53%
Growth +0.052%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.26%32.43%32.16%33.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.912.903.2037.04%34.40%34.48%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Macará (Local): 39.47%; CA Tigre BA (Visit): 28.22%; Draw: 32.30%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.10. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.37%.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 39.40%EV -2.10%E -0.848%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.07%EV -8.28%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.53%EV +3.37%E +1.05%K +1.53%G +0.052%2.3%2026-05-06 23:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.43%EV -5.26%E -2.19%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.04%EV -11.11%E -3.53%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV +0.144%E +0.047%K +0.069%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-06 23:55
Unibet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.43%EV -5.26%E -2.19%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.04%EV -11.11%E -3.53%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV +0.144%E +0.047%K +0.069%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-06 23:55
Casumo🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.43%EV -5.26%E -2.19%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.04%EV -11.11%E -3.53%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV +0.144%E +0.047%K +0.069%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-06 23:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.43%EV -5.26%E -2.19%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.04%EV -11.11%E -3.53%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.53%EV +0.144%E +0.047%K +0.069%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-06 23:55
Coolbet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.74%EV -5.26%E -2.19%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.47%EV -5.46%E -1.63%K -2.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.79%EV -3.09%E -1.03%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-06 22:35
LeoVegas🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -9.21%E -4.00%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -15.34%E -5.11%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -3.09%E -1.03%K -1.54%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-06 23:54
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.53%EV -5.26%E -2.19%K -3.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.32%EV -5.46%E -1.63%K -2.32%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.16%EV -4.70%E -1.59%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-06 23:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.26%EV -8.42%E -3.63%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.86%EV -13.93%E -4.57%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.88%EV -4.70%E -1.59%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-06 23:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.26%EV -8.42%E -3.63%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.86%EV -13.93%E -4.57%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.88%EV -4.70%E -1.59%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-06 23:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.26%EV -8.42%E -3.63%K -6.38%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.86%EV -13.93%E -4.57%K -6.79%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.88%EV -4.70%E -1.59%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-06 23:55
Pinnacle🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.85%EV -5.66%E -2.37%K -4.07%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.53%EV -2.36%E -0.681%K -0.958%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.62%EV -5.67%E -1.94%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-06 23:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.17%EV -6.05%E -2.54%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.68%EV -8.28%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.15%EV -6.32%E -2.18%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-06 23:50
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.64%EV -7.23%E -3.08%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -6.32%E -2.18%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-06 23:50
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -6.05%E -2.54%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -12.52%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.86%EV -6.96%E -2.42%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-06 23:30
NordicBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.82%EV -6.05%E -2.54%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.43%EV -8.28%E -2.55%K -3.68%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.76%EV -8.90%E -3.16%K -4.89%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-06 23:50
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -9.21%E -4.00%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -9.55%E -3.41%K -5.30%G +0.000%9.5%2026-05-06 23:45
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.64%EV -9.21%E -4.00%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.62%EV -15.34%E -5.11%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.74%EV -9.55%E -3.41%K -5.30%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-06 23:40
Unibet (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.63%EV -15.13%E -7.04%K -13.16%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.18%EV -12.52%E -4.04%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.20%EV -9.55%E -3.41%K -5.30%G +0.000%14.5%2026-05-06 23:50
888sport🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -6.05%E -2.54%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -11.16%E -4.06%K -6.38%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-06 23:45
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -6.05%E -2.54%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -11.16%E -4.06%K -6.38%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-06 23:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -6.05%E -2.54%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -11.16%E -4.06%K -6.38%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-06 23:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -6.05%E -2.54%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -11.16%E -4.06%K -6.38%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-06 23:45
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -9.21%E -4.00%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -6.87%E -2.08%K -2.99%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -11.16%E -4.06%K -6.38%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-06 23:45
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.43%EV -11.18%E -4.97%K -8.95%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.72%EV -9.69%E -3.03%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.85%EV -12.78%E -4.73%K -7.52%G +0.000%12.7%2026-05-06 23:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.47%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.41%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.12%1.3%2026-05-06 23:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.47%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.41%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.12%1.3%2026-05-06 23:55
Matchbook◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.47%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.41%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.12%1.3%2026-05-06 23:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.50I 40.00%NM 39.38%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.35%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.26%1.6%2026-05-06 23:55
Smarkets◎2.48I 40.32%NM 39.27%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.83%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.90%2.7%2026-05-06 23:50