The School of Odds
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Macará v América de Cali

Kickoff: 2026-04-10 00:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Macará (Local)

Prediction 27.05%3.70fair odd
EV +5.48%
Edge +1.40%
Kelly +1.89%
Growth +0.103%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.79%26.88%27.05%28.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.523.523.9031.25%28.43%28.37%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

América de Cali (Visit)

Prediction 39.27%2.55fair odd
EV -2.21%
Edge -0.888%
Kelly -1.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.41%39.47%39.27%41.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.312.292.4947.62%43.31%43.76%40.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 33.68%2.97fair odd
EV -0.638%
Edge -0.216%
Kelly -0.327%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.63%33.65%33.68%35.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.632.762.752.9538.02%36.19%36.36%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Macará (Local): 27.05%; América de Cali (Visit): 39.27%; Draw: 33.68%. For Macará (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.70. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.48%.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 25.03%EV +5.48%E +1.40%K +1.89%G +0.103%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.89%EV -8.49%E -3.65%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 33.09%EV -0.638%E -0.216%K -0.327%G +0.000%2.5%2026-04-10 00:00
Coolbet🎯3.84I 26.04%NM 24.79%EV +3.85%E +1.00%K +1.36%G +0.052%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.93%EV -10.85%E -4.78%K -8.54%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.28%EV -3.67%E -1.28%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-09 21:40
1xBet🎯3.83I 26.11%NM 25.34%EV +3.58%E +0.936%K +1.27%G +0.045%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.98%EV -2.21%E -0.888%K -1.48%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 35.68%EV -8.38%E -3.08%K -4.87%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-10 00:20
Unibet (NL)🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV +1.42%E +0.379%K +0.516%G +0.007%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.85%EV -11.64%E -5.17%K -9.31%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -4.01%E -1.41%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-10 00:00
Unibet🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV +1.42%E +0.379%K +0.516%G +0.007%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.85%EV -11.64%E -5.17%K -9.31%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -4.01%E -1.41%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-10 00:00
Casumo🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV +1.42%E +0.379%K +0.516%G +0.007%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.85%EV -11.64%E -5.17%K -9.31%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -4.01%E -1.41%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-10 00:00
Svenska Spel🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 25.11%EV +1.42%E +0.379%K +0.516%G +0.007%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.85%EV -11.64%E -5.17%K -9.31%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -4.01%E -1.41%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-10 00:00
Virgin Bet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.24%EV -1.28%E -0.352%K -0.485%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.87%EV -13.60%E -6.18%K -11.33%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -5.69%E -2.03%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-10 00:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -1.28%E -0.352%K -0.485%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.84%EV -14.39%E -6.60%K -12.19%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -7.37%E -2.68%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-10 00:00
LeoVegas🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -1.28%E -0.352%K -0.485%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.84%EV -14.39%E -6.60%K -12.19%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -7.37%E -2.68%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-10 00:00
LiveScore Bet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 24.99%EV -1.28%E -0.352%K -0.485%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.84%EV -14.39%E -6.60%K -12.19%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.17%EV -7.37%E -2.68%K -4.21%G +0.000%9.6%2026-04-10 00:00
Pinnacle🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.84%EV -3.99%E -1.12%K -1.56%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.37%EV -4.96%E -2.05%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.79%EV -5.02%E -1.78%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-10 00:20
Bovada🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -5.34%E -1.53%K -2.14%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -7.71%E -3.28%K -5.71%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -7.37%E -2.68%K -4.21%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-10 00:23
DraftKings🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.25%EV -6.69%E -1.94%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.17%EV -5.75%E -2.39%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.58%EV -5.69%E -2.03%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-10 00:15
SportsBet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -8.05%E -2.37%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -9.67%E -4.21%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -9.06%E -3.35%K -5.33%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-10 00:10
Paddy Power🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -8.05%E -2.37%K -3.35%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -9.67%E -4.21%K -7.44%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -9.06%E -3.35%K -5.33%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-10 00:10
Coral🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.11%EV -10.75%E -3.26%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.76%EV -11.64%E -5.17%K -9.31%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.13%EV -9.06%E -3.35%K -5.33%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-10 00:15
Sky Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -10.75%E -3.26%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.41%EV -11.64%E -5.17%K -9.31%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.72%EV -11.42%E -4.34%K -7.00%G +0.000%12.8%2026-04-10 00:00
Unibet (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 26.20%EV -10.75%E -3.26%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.17%EV -17.53%E -8.35%K -15.93%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.63%EV -10.74%E -4.05%K -6.51%G +0.000%15.7%2026-04-10 00:20
NordicBet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.47%EV -12.10%E -3.72%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.24%EV -4.96%E -2.05%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 33.29%EV -6.36%E -2.29%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-10 00:15
William Hill🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -13.46%E -4.20%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.41%EV -3.78%E -1.54%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -9.06%E -3.35%K -5.33%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-10 00:15
888sport🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -13.46%E -4.20%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.41%EV -3.78%E -1.54%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -9.06%E -3.35%K -5.33%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-10 00:14
888sport (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -13.46%E -4.20%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.41%EV -3.78%E -1.54%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -9.06%E -3.35%K -5.33%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-10 00:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -13.46%E -4.20%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.41%EV -3.78%E -1.54%K -2.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.95%EV -9.06%E -3.35%K -5.33%G +0.000%9.1%2026-04-10 00:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎3.75I 26.67%NM 26.53%2.54I 39.37%NM 39.17%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.30%0.5%2026-04-10 00:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.79%2.54I 39.37%NM 39.03%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.18%0.9%2026-04-10 00:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.79%2.54I 39.37%NM 39.03%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.18%0.9%2026-04-10 00:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.79%2.54I 39.37%NM 39.03%2.90I 34.48%NM 34.18%0.9%2026-04-10 00:25
Smarkets◎3.65I 27.40%NM 26.91%2.52I 39.68%NM 38.98%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.11%1.8%2026-04-10 00:25