The School of Odds
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Independiente Santa Fe v River Plate

Kickoff: 2026-08-20 00:30 UTC

Final: Independiente Santa Fe 0–0 River Plate

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Independiente Santa Fe (Local)

Prediction 28.06%3.56fair odd
EV +1.03%
Edge +0.285%
Kelly +0.395%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.38%27.95%28.16%28.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.343.303.6032.26%29.94%30.30%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

River Plate (Visit)

Prediction 38.88%2.57fair odd
EV -3.57%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -2.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.55%38.92%38.96%41.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.172.322.302.4846.08%43.12%43.48%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 33.05%3.03fair odd
EV -0.836%
Edge -0.279%
Kelly -0.418%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.04%33.13%32.89%34.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.822.803.0037.04%35.48%35.71%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Independiente Santa Fe (Local): 28.06%; River Plate (Visit): 38.88%; Draw: 33.05%. For Independiente Santa Fe (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.56. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.03%.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.80%EV +1.03%E +0.285%K +0.395%G +0.004%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.05%EV -8.63%E -3.67%K -6.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.16%EV -0.836%E -0.279%K -0.418%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-19 23:50
Coolbet🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 27.03%EV -0.376%E -0.106%K -0.148%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.70%EV -3.57%E -1.44%K -2.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -7.45%E -2.66%K -4.14%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-20 00:20
1xBet🎯3.54I 28.25%NM 26.38%EV -0.657%E -0.186%K -0.259%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 39.91%EV -9.02%E -3.85%K -6.73%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 33.71%EV -8.44%E -3.05%K -4.77%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-20 00:20
Pinnacle🎯3.49I 28.65%NM 27.31%EV -2.06%E -0.590%K -0.827%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -4.74%E -1.93%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.79%EV -6.79%E -2.41%K -3.73%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-20 00:05
Unibet (NL)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -3.18%E -0.922%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.87%EV -11.35%E -4.98%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -4.14%E -1.43%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-19 23:50
Unibet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -3.18%E -0.922%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.87%EV -11.35%E -4.98%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -4.14%E -1.43%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-19 23:50
Casumo🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -3.18%E -0.922%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.87%EV -11.35%E -4.98%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -4.14%E -1.43%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-19 23:50
Svenska Spel🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 27.01%EV -3.18%E -0.922%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.87%EV -11.35%E -4.98%K -8.87%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -4.14%E -1.43%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-19 23:50
SportsBet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -4.59%E -1.35%K -1.91%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -10.57%E -4.60%K -8.13%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -9.10%E -3.31%K -5.20%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-19 23:45
DraftKings🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.39%EV -5.99%E -1.79%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.82%EV -4.74%E -1.93%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.79%EV -4.14%E -1.43%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-19 23:45
NordicBet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -5.99%E -1.79%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.98%EV -8.63%E -3.67%K -6.39%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.68%EV -10.09%E -3.71%K -5.87%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-20 00:20
LeoVegas🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.63%EV -7.39%E -2.24%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.56%EV -4.74%E -1.93%K -3.27%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.81%EV -4.80%E -1.67%K -2.55%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-19 19:04
888sport🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -7.39%E -2.24%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -10.57%E -4.60%K -8.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -7.45%E -2.66%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-19 17:50
William Hill🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -7.39%E -2.24%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -10.57%E -4.60%K -8.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -7.45%E -2.66%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-19 17:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -7.39%E -2.24%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -10.57%E -4.60%K -8.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -7.45%E -2.66%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-19 17:50
888sport (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -7.39%E -2.24%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -10.57%E -4.60%K -8.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -7.45%E -2.66%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-19 17:50
Paddy Power🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -7.39%E -2.24%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -10.57%E -4.60%K -8.13%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.01%EV -9.10%E -3.31%K -5.20%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-20 00:25
Bovada🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.78%EV -8.80%E -2.71%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.97%EV -6.68%E -2.78%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.25%EV -4.14%E -1.43%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-19 23:43
Codere (IT)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -8.80%E -2.71%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 38.65%EV -6.29%E -2.61%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.69%EV -5.79%E -2.03%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-19 19:10
Unibet (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.62%EV -8.80%E -2.71%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.75%EV -6.68%E -2.78%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.63%EV -5.79%E -2.03%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-19 19:04
Sky Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -8.80%E -2.71%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -12.51%E -5.56%K -10.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.99%EV -10.75%E -3.98%K -6.32%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-19 23:45
Virgin Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.18%EV -8.80%E -2.71%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 40.70%EV -15.63%E -7.20%K -13.36%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.12%EV -9.10%E -3.31%K -5.20%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-19 23:50
LiveScore Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.18%EV -8.80%E -2.71%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 40.70%EV -15.63%E -7.20%K -13.36%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.12%EV -9.10%E -3.31%K -5.20%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-19 23:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.18%EV -8.80%E -2.71%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 40.70%EV -15.63%E -7.20%K -13.36%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.12%EV -9.10%E -3.31%K -5.20%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-19 23:50
PMU (FR)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.18%EV -8.80%E -2.71%K -3.91%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 40.70%EV -15.63%E -7.20%K -13.36%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.12%EV -9.10%E -3.31%K -5.20%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-19 23:50
betfred_uk🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -10.20%E -3.19%K -4.64%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -7.46%E -3.13%K -5.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -7.45%E -2.66%K -4.14%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-20 00:25
Coral🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.94%EV -13.00%E -4.20%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.01%EV -10.57%E -4.60%K -8.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.04%EV -7.45%E -2.66%K -4.14%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-19 19:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.75I 26.67%NM 26.58%2.48I 40.32%NM 40.19%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.23%0.3%2026-08-20 00:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.75I 26.67%NM 26.58%2.48I 40.32%NM 40.19%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.23%0.3%2026-08-20 00:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.75I 26.67%NM 26.58%2.48I 40.32%NM 40.19%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.23%0.3%2026-08-20 00:25
Smarkets◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.67%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.44%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.89%1.3%2026-08-20 00:25