The School of Odds

Independiente Medellín v Vasco da Gama

Kickoff: 2026-07-22 22:00 UTC

Final: Independiente Medellín 2–2 Vasco da Gama

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. See how the models score across every settled game →

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Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Independiente Medellín (Local)

Prediction 33.66%2.97fair odd
EV -1.38%
Edge -0.469%
Kelly -0.713%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.54%33.61%33.44%40.99%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.392.692.702.9342%37%37%34%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Vasco da Gama (Visit)

Prediction 35.84%2.79fair odd
EV +19.71%
Edge +5.90%
Kelly +8.42%
Growth +1.66%

assuming max odds 3.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.33%35.53%36.01%37.19%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.402.682.633.3442%37%38%30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 30.50%3.28fair odd
EV +0.648%
Edge +0.197%
Kelly +0.282%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.63%30.86%30.55%32.48%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.802.982.963.3036%34%34%30%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet2.39I 41.84%NM 40.99%EV -19.55%E -8.18%K -14.07%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 29.33%EV +19.71%E +5.90%K +8.42%G +1.66%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.68%EV +0.648%E +0.197%K +0.282%G +0.002%2.1%2026-07-22 03:05
Coolbet2.77I 36.10%NM 34.36%EV -6.76%E -2.44%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 33.16%EV +2.86%E +0.997%K +1.53%G +0.044%2.93I 34.13%NM 32.48%EV -10.64%E -3.63%K -5.51%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-22 21:19
Unibet2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -9.12%E -3.38%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV +2.14%E +0.752%K +1.16%G +0.025%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.97%EV -10.03%E -3.40%K -5.14%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-22 21:04
Unibet (NL)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -9.12%E -3.38%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV +2.14%E +0.752%K +1.16%G +0.025%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.97%EV -10.03%E -3.40%K -5.14%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-22 21:04
Casumo2.70I 37.04%NM 34.93%EV -9.12%E -3.38%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.09%EV +2.14%E +0.752%K +1.16%G +0.025%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.97%EV -10.03%E -3.40%K -5.14%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-22 21:04
Bovada2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -12.48%E -4.80%K -7.80%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV +0.352%E +0.126%K +0.196%G +0.001%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -5.45%E -1.76%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-22 21:34
LiveScore Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 34.99%EV -12.48%E -4.80%K -7.80%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.08%EV -1.44%E -0.523%K -0.823%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.92%EV -13.08%E -4.59%K -7.07%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-22 21:04
LeoVegas (SE)2.60I 38.46%NM 34.99%EV -12.48%E -4.80%K -7.80%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.08%EV -1.44%E -0.523%K -0.823%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.92%EV -13.08%E -4.59%K -7.07%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-22 21:04
Virgin Bet2.60I 38.46%NM 34.99%EV -12.48%E -4.80%K -7.80%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.08%EV -1.44%E -0.523%K -0.823%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.92%EV -13.08%E -4.59%K -7.07%G +0.000%9.9%2026-07-22 21:04
LeoVegas2.75I 36.36%NM 34.19%EV -7.43%E -2.70%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.48%EV -5.02%E -1.90%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.33%EV -5.45%E -1.76%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-22 21:44
Codere (IT)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.02%EV -7.43%E -2.70%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.30%EV -5.02%E -1.90%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.67%EV -6.98%E -2.29%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-22 21:45
DraftKings2.80I 35.71%NM 33.56%EV -5.75%E -2.05%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.14%EV -6.82%E -2.62%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.31%EV -5.45%E -1.76%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-22 21:34
betfred_uk2.62I 38.17%NM 35.05%EV -11.81%E -4.51%K -7.29%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -6.82%E -2.62%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.63%EV -5.45%E -1.76%K -2.60%G +0.000%8.9%2026-07-22 21:34
Coral2.60I 38.46%NM 34.52%EV -12.48%E -4.80%K -7.80%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.52%EV -6.82%E -2.62%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.95%EV -11.55%E -3.98%K -6.08%G +0.000%11.4%2026-07-22 21:34
Pinnacle2.93I 34.13%NM 32.54%EV -1.38%E -0.469%K -0.713%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 36.81%EV -7.17%E -2.77%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 30.65%EV -5.15%E -1.65%K -2.44%G +0.000%4.9%2026-07-22 21:44
NordicBet2.78I 35.97%NM 33.22%EV -6.42%E -2.31%K -3.61%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 35.79%EV -7.53%E -2.92%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 30.99%EV -9.11%E -3.06%K -4.60%G +0.000%8.3%2026-07-22 21:34
SportsBet2.80I 35.71%NM 32.64%EV -5.75%E -2.05%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.84%EV -8.61%E -3.38%K -5.55%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.52%EV -11.55%E -3.98%K -6.08%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-22 21:45
888sport2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -9.12%E -3.38%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -10.40%E -4.16%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -8.50%E -2.83%K -4.25%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-22 21:34
William Hill2.70I 37.04%NM 33.56%EV -9.12%E -3.38%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.24%EV -10.40%E -4.16%K -6.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -8.50%E -2.83%K -4.25%G +0.000%10.4%2026-07-22 21:35
Paddy Power2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -7.43%E -2.70%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -10.40%E -4.16%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.26%EV -12.16%E -4.22%K -6.47%G +0.000%11.1%2026-07-22 21:34
Sky Bet2.70I 37.04%NM 32.85%EV -9.12%E -3.38%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.48%EV -10.40%E -4.16%K -6.93%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -14.60%E -5.21%K -8.11%G +0.000%12.8%2026-07-22 21:34
Unibet (FR)2.70I 37.04%NM 33.06%EV -9.12%E -3.38%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.19%EV -13.98%E -5.83%K -9.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.75%EV -8.50%E -2.83%K -4.25%G +0.000%12.0%2026-07-22 21:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.05I 32.79%NM 32.54%2.80I 35.71%NM 35.45%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.01%0.8%2026-07-22 21:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.05I 32.79%NM 32.54%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.96%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.51%0.8%2026-07-22 21:44
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.05I 32.79%NM 32.54%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.96%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.51%0.8%2026-07-22 21:44
Smarkets3.00I 33.33%NM 32.90%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.76%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.34%1.3%2026-07-22 21:45