The School of Odds
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Grêmio v Deportivo Pereira

Kickoff: 2026-04-14 22:00 UTC

Final: Grêmio 1–0 Deportivo Pereira

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Grêmio (Local)

Prediction 52.32%1.91fair odd
EV -3.21%
Edge -1.73%
Kelly -3.77%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.18%53.33%51.81%60.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.761.801.8564.52%56.66%55.56%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Deportivo Pereira (Visit)

Prediction 15.65%6.39fair odd
EV +9.56%
Edge +1.37%
Kelly +1.59%
Growth +0.152%

assuming max odds 7.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.96%15.92%16.05%19.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.855.757.0021.74%17.10%17.39%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.03%3.12fair odd
EV +20.10%
Edge +5.36%
Kelly +7.31%
Growth +1.47%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.02%30.75%32.14%33.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.962.923.7537.04%33.78%34.25%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Grêmio (Local): 52.32%; Deportivo Pereira (Visit): 15.65%; Draw: 32.03%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.12. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +20.10%.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Unibet (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.54%EV -18.90%E -12.20%K -34.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV +1.74%E +0.267%K +0.316%G +0.005%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.02%EV +20.10%E +5.36%K +7.31%G +1.47%6.6%2026-04-14 07:59
ATG (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 55.51%EV -7.92%E -4.50%K -10.42%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.96%EV +9.56%E +1.37%K +1.59%G +0.152%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.53%EV +2.49%E +0.778%K +1.13%G +0.028%2.4%2026-04-14 21:30
Unibet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.40%EV -10.53%E -6.16%K -14.83%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.04%EV +5.65%E +0.837%K +0.983%G +0.056%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.56%EV -0.713%E -0.230%K -0.340%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-14 21:30
Casumo🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.40%EV -10.53%E -6.16%K -14.83%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.04%EV +5.65%E +0.837%K +0.983%G +0.056%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.56%EV -0.713%E -0.230%K -0.340%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-14 21:30
Unibet (NL)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.40%EV -10.53%E -6.16%K -14.83%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.04%EV +5.65%E +0.837%K +0.983%G +0.056%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.56%EV -0.713%E -0.230%K -0.340%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-14 21:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.40%EV -10.53%E -6.16%K -14.83%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.04%EV +5.65%E +0.837%K +0.983%G +0.056%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.56%EV -0.713%E -0.230%K -0.340%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-14 21:30
Coolbet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.98%EV -8.44%E -4.82%K -11.25%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV +1.74%E +0.267%K +0.316%G +0.005%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.49%EV -3.92%E -1.31%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-14 21:29
Virgin Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.29%EV -13.15%E -7.92%K -19.92%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.12%EV +1.74%E +0.267%K +0.316%G +0.005%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.59%EV -3.92%E -1.31%K -1.96%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-14 21:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.59%EV -14.20%E -8.66%K -22.18%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.03%EV +1.74%E +0.267%K +0.316%G +0.005%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -3.92%E -1.31%K -1.96%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-14 21:30
LeoVegas🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.59%EV -14.20%E -8.66%K -22.18%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.03%EV +1.74%E +0.267%K +0.316%G +0.005%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -3.92%E -1.31%K -1.96%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-14 21:30
LiveScore Bet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.59%EV -14.20%E -8.66%K -22.18%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.03%EV +1.74%E +0.267%K +0.316%G +0.005%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -3.92%E -1.31%K -1.96%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-14 21:30
DraftKings🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.58%EV -4.25%E -2.32%K -5.13%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -10.00%E -1.74%K -2.11%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.00%EV -5.52%E -1.87%K -2.83%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-14 21:30
NordicBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.82%EV -3.21%E -1.73%K -3.77%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.62%EV -22.52%E -4.55%K -5.70%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.56%EV -6.48%E -2.22%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-14 21:30
Pinnacle🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.30%EV -3.21%E -1.73%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.94I 16.84%NM 15.98%EV -7.03%E -1.18%K -1.42%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.72%EV -7.12%E -2.45%K -3.75%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-14 21:30
Bovada🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.49%EV -3.21%E -1.73%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.30%EV -15.48%E -2.87%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.21%EV -7.12%E -2.45%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-14 21:30
1xBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.91%EV -4.25%E -2.32%K -5.13%G +0.000%5.49I 18.21%NM 16.97%EV -14.07%E -2.56%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.12%EV -7.12%E -2.45%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-14 21:30
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.18%EV -4.25%E -2.32%K -5.13%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.57%EV -28.00%E -6.09%K -7.78%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.25%EV -7.76%E -2.69%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-14 21:30
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -3.21%E -1.73%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -21.74%E -4.35%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -10.32%E -3.69%K -5.73%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-14 21:30
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -3.21%E -1.73%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -21.74%E -4.35%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -10.32%E -3.69%K -5.73%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-14 21:30
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -3.21%E -1.73%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -21.74%E -4.35%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -10.32%E -3.69%K -5.73%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-14 21:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -3.21%E -1.73%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.22%EV -21.74%E -4.35%K -5.43%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -10.32%E -3.69%K -5.73%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-14 21:30
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.56%EV -5.82%E -3.24%K -7.28%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.58%EV -24.87%E -5.18%K -6.54%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.86%EV -10.32%E -3.69%K -5.73%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-14 21:30
SportsBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.46%EV -5.82%E -3.24%K -7.28%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -13.91%E -2.53%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.03%EV -11.92%E -4.34%K -6.81%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-14 21:30
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.46%EV -5.82%E -3.24%K -7.28%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.51%EV -13.91%E -2.53%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.03%EV -11.92%E -4.34%K -6.81%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-14 21:30
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.76%EV -5.82%E -3.24%K -7.28%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.06%EV -17.83%E -3.40%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.18%EV -13.52%E -5.01%K -7.96%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-14 21:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.93%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.12%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.95%0.2%2026-04-14 21:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.81%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.09%2.92I 34.25%NM 34.10%0.4%2026-04-14 21:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.95I 51.28%NM 51.05%6.60I 15.15%NM 15.08%2.94I 34.01%NM 33.86%0.4%2026-04-14 21:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.94I 51.55%NM 51.29%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.55%3.00I 33.33%NM 33.17%0.5%2026-04-14 21:30
Smarkets◎1.94I 51.55%NM 50.83%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.41%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.77%1.4%2026-04-14 21:30