The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Deportivo Pereira v Palestino

Kickoff: 2026-04-08 22:02 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Deportivo Pereira (Local)

Prediction 48.58%2.06fair odd
EV -2.83%
Edge -1.42%
Kelly -2.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.98%48.42%48.82%50.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.821.901.902.0054.95%52.65%52.77%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Palestino (Visit)

Prediction 19.69%5.08fair odd
EV -1.56%
Edge -0.313%
Kelly -0.391%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 5.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.27%19.92%19.64%22.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.614.555.0025.00%21.69%21.98%20.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.73%3.15fair odd
EV +3.12%
Edge +0.961%
Kelly +1.39%
Growth +0.043%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.50%31.66%31.54%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.973.003.2536.36%33.70%33.33%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Deportivo Pereira (Local): 48.58%; Palestino (Visit): 19.69%; Draw: 31.73%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.15. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.12%.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Casumo🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 50.05%EV -5.26%E -2.70%K -5.54%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.92%EV -3.53%E -0.721%K -0.906%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.03%EV +3.12%E +0.961%K +1.39%G +0.043%2.5%2026-04-08 22:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 50.05%EV -5.26%E -2.70%K -5.54%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.92%EV -3.53%E -0.721%K -0.906%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.03%EV +3.12%E +0.961%K +1.39%G +0.043%2.5%2026-04-08 22:00
Unibet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.29%EV -8.66%E -4.61%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.70%EV -5.50%E -1.15%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.01%EV -0.051%E -0.016%K -0.024%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-08 22:00
1xBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 48.56%EV -2.83%E -1.42%K -2.83%G +0.000%4.88I 20.49%NM 19.90%EV -3.93%E -0.805%K -1.01%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.53%EV -2.27%E -0.738%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.0%2026-04-08 21:59
Unibet (NL)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.03%EV -8.18%E -4.33%K -9.19%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -11.41%E -2.54%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.38%EV -3.22%E -1.06%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-08 22:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.03%EV -8.18%E -4.33%K -9.19%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.59%EV -11.41%E -2.54%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.38%EV -3.22%E -1.06%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-08 22:00
LeoVegas🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.74%EV -11.58%E -6.36%K -14.12%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.58%EV -13.38%E -3.04%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.68%EV -3.22%E -1.06%K -1.57%G +0.000%10.5%2026-04-08 22:00
Coolbet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -2.83%E -1.42%K -2.83%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -14.75%E -3.41%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.32%EV -4.81%E -1.60%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-08 22:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.28%EV -7.69%E -4.05%K -8.55%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.51%EV -5.50%E -1.15%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.21%EV -4.81%E -1.60%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-08 21:59
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.88%EV -9.15%E -4.89%K -10.52%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.03%EV -3.53%E -0.721%K -0.906%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.09%EV -4.81%E -1.60%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-08 22:00
LiveScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.82%EV -9.15%E -4.89%K -10.52%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -13.38%E -3.04%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -4.81%E -1.60%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-08 22:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.82%EV -9.15%E -4.89%K -10.52%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.75%EV -13.38%E -3.04%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -4.81%E -1.60%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-08 22:00
Sky Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.37%EV -11.09%E -6.06%K -13.37%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.13%EV -21.25%E -5.31%K -7.08%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.50%EV -4.81%E -1.60%K -2.41%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-08 22:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.11%EV -11.09%E -6.06%K -13.37%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.43%EV -13.38%E -3.04%K -3.93%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.46%EV -6.40%E -2.17%K -3.28%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-08 22:00
Pinnacle🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 48.48%EV -4.78%E -2.44%K -4.98%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.20%EV -2.55%E -0.515%K -0.645%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.32%EV -6.71%E -2.28%K -3.46%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-08 21:59
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.93%EV -8.66%E -4.61%K -9.85%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.57%EV -7.47%E -1.59%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.50%EV -7.35%E -2.52%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-08 21:59
Bovada🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.43%EV -7.21%E -3.77%K -7.92%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.68%EV -7.47%E -1.59%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.89%EV -7.98%E -2.75%K -4.20%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-08 22:00
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.11%EV -7.21%E -3.77%K -7.92%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -9.44%E -2.05%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.91%EV -8.62%E -2.99%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-08 22:00
SportsBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 49.11%EV -9.64%E -5.18%K -11.20%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.27%EV -1.56%E -0.313%K -0.391%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -11.16%E -3.98%K -6.20%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-08 22:00
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.47%EV -7.21%E -3.77%K -7.92%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.15%EV -11.41%E -2.54%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.38%EV -11.16%E -3.98%K -6.20%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-08 22:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.47%EV -7.21%E -3.77%K -7.92%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.15%EV -11.41%E -2.54%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.38%EV -11.16%E -3.98%K -6.20%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-08 22:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.47%EV -7.21%E -3.77%K -7.92%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.15%EV -11.41%E -2.54%K -3.26%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.38%EV -11.16%E -3.98%K -6.20%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-08 22:00
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.10%EV -7.21%E -3.77%K -7.92%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.78%EV -14.75%E -3.41%K -4.43%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.13%EV -11.16%E -3.98%K -6.20%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-08 22:00
Paddy Power🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.22%EV -9.15%E -4.89%K -10.52%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.98%EV -6.49%E -1.37%K -1.73%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.79%EV -12.74%E -4.63%K -7.28%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-08 22:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.68%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.74%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.58%0.6%2026-04-08 22:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.99I 50.25%NM 49.81%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.70%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.50%0.9%2026-04-08 22:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.96I 51.02%NM 49.43%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.62%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.95%3.2%2026-04-08 22:00
Matchbook◎1.95I 51.28%NM 49.56%5.30I 18.87%NM 18.23%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.21%3.5%2026-04-08 22:00
Smarkets◎1.91I 52.36%NM 49.25%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.09%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.66%6.3%2026-04-08 22:00