The School of Odds
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Clube Atlético Mineiro v CA Juventud

Kickoff: 2026-04-16 22:00 UTC

Final: Clube Atlético Mineiro 2–1 CA Juventud

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Clube Atlético Mineiro (Local)

Prediction 71.87%1.39fair odd
EV -3.69%
Edge -2.75%
Kelly -10.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.06%72.34%71.87%76.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.271.261.3483.33%78.87%79.37%74.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

CA Juventud (Visit)

Prediction 9.84%10.16fair odd
EV +27.97%
Edge +2.15%
Kelly +2.33%
Growth +0.652%

assuming max odds 13.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.51%9.47%9.84%11.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.5010.459.8913.0013.33%9.57%10.11%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 18.28%5.47fair odd
EV +9.69%
Edge +1.62%
Kelly +1.94%
Growth +0.188%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.26%18.19%18.28%19.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.175.066.0022.22%19.34%19.74%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Clube Atlético Mineiro (Local): 71.87%; CA Juventud (Visit): 9.84%; Draw: 18.28%. For CA Juventud (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.16. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 13.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +27.97%.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 76.23%EV -8.00%E -6.25%K -28.58%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.51%EV +27.97%E +2.15%K +2.33%G +0.652%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.26%EV +9.69%E +1.62%K +1.94%G +0.188%2.5%2026-04-16 21:50
Unibet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.16%EV -10.88%E -8.77%K -45.32%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.56%EV +23.05%E +1.84%K +2.00%G +0.462%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.28%EV +6.04%E +1.04%K +1.26%G +0.076%5.9%2026-04-16 21:50
Casumo🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.16%EV -10.88%E -8.77%K -45.32%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.56%EV +23.05%E +1.84%K +2.00%G +0.462%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.28%EV +6.04%E +1.04%K +1.26%G +0.076%5.9%2026-04-16 21:49
Unibet (NL)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.16%EV -10.88%E -8.77%K -45.32%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.56%EV +23.05%E +1.84%K +2.00%G +0.462%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.28%EV +6.04%E +1.04%K +1.26%G +0.076%5.9%2026-04-16 21:49
Svenska Spel🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.16%EV -10.88%E -8.77%K -45.32%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.56%EV +23.05%E +1.84%K +2.00%G +0.462%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.28%EV +6.04%E +1.04%K +1.26%G +0.076%5.9%2026-04-16 21:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.09%EV -13.75%E -11.46%K -68.76%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.61%EV +18.13%E +1.51%K +1.65%G +0.299%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.30%EV +2.38%E +0.425%K +0.518%G +0.012%9.5%2026-04-16 21:49
LiveScore Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.09%EV -13.75%E -11.46%K -68.76%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.61%EV +18.13%E +1.51%K +1.65%G +0.299%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.30%EV +2.38%E +0.425%K +0.518%G +0.012%9.5%2026-04-16 21:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.09%EV -13.75%E -11.46%K -68.76%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.61%EV +18.13%E +1.51%K +1.65%G +0.299%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.30%EV +2.38%E +0.425%K +0.518%G +0.012%9.5%2026-04-16 21:50
LeoVegas🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.09%EV -13.75%E -11.46%K -68.76%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.61%EV +18.13%E +1.51%K +1.65%G +0.299%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.30%EV +2.38%E +0.425%K +0.518%G +0.012%9.5%2026-04-16 21:49
Coolbet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.53%EV -9.44%E -7.49%K -36.30%G +0.000%11.80I 8.47%NM 8.06%EV +16.16%E +1.37%K +1.50%G +0.242%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.41%EV +6.04%E +1.04%K +1.26%G +0.076%5.1%2026-04-09 20:24
SportsBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.35%EV -10.16%E -8.13%K -40.63%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.61%EV +3.36%E +0.320%K +0.354%G +0.012%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.04%EV -13.16%E -2.77%K -3.51%G +0.000%10.6%2026-04-16 21:55
Paddy Power🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.04%EV -10.16%E -8.13%K -40.63%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.00%EV -1.56%E -0.156%K -0.174%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.96%EV -13.16%E -2.77%K -3.51%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-16 21:53
Pinnacle🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.82%EV -5.13%E -3.88%K -16.02%G +0.000%9.78I 10.22%NM 9.69%EV -3.73%E -0.381%K -0.425%G +0.000%5.13I 19.49%NM 18.48%EV -6.21%E -1.21%K -1.50%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-16 21:50
DraftKings🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.92%EV -5.13%E -3.88%K -16.02%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.99%EV -6.48%E -0.682%K -0.763%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.08%EV -4.02%E -0.765%K -0.945%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-16 21:34
betfred_uk🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.61%EV -7.28%E -5.65%K -25.11%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.59%EV -6.48%E -0.682%K -0.763%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.80%EV -15.90%E -3.46%K -4.42%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-16 21:49
NordicBet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.28%EV -5.13%E -3.88%K -16.02%G +0.000%9.30I 10.75%NM 9.98%EV -8.45%E -0.909%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.74%EV -14.07%E -2.99%K -3.80%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-16 21:34
888sport🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.07%EV -6.56%E -5.05%K -21.88%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -11.41%E -1.27%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.80%EV -15.90%E -3.46%K -4.42%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-16 21:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.07%EV -6.56%E -5.05%K -21.88%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -11.41%E -1.27%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.80%EV -15.90%E -3.46%K -4.42%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-16 21:54
888sport (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.07%EV -6.56%E -5.05%K -21.88%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -11.41%E -1.27%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.80%EV -15.90%E -3.46%K -4.42%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-16 21:54
William Hill🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 70.07%EV -6.56%E -5.05%K -21.88%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.12%EV -11.41%E -1.27%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.80%EV -15.90%E -3.46%K -4.42%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-16 21:54
Sky Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 70.89%EV -10.16%E -8.13%K -40.63%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.85%EV -11.41%E -1.27%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.26%EV -15.90%E -3.46%K -4.42%G +0.000%12.9%2026-04-16 21:54
Bovada🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.52%EV -4.41%E -3.31%K -13.36%G +0.000%8.75I 11.43%NM 10.72%EV -13.87%E -1.58%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.76%EV -8.59%E -1.72%K -2.15%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-16 21:52
1xBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.72%EV -3.69%E -2.75%K -10.85%G +0.000%8.08I 12.38%NM 11.56%EV -20.46%E -2.53%K -2.89%G +0.000%4.99I 20.04%NM 18.72%EV -8.77%E -1.76%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-16 21:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 69.06%EV -9.44%E -7.49%K -36.30%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.60%EV -26.17%E -3.49%K -4.03%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.34%EV -17.73%E -3.94%K -5.07%G +0.000%14.9%2026-04-16 21:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.34I 74.63%NM 74.03%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.94%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04%0.8%2026-04-16 21:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.34I 74.63%NM 74.03%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.94%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04%0.8%2026-04-16 21:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.33I 75.19%NM 74.40%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.61%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.99%1.1%2026-04-16 21:55
Matchbook◎1.33I 75.19%NM 74.40%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.61%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.99%1.1%2026-04-16 21:55
Smarkets◎1.33I 75.19%NM 73.93%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.87%5.40I 18.52%NM 18.21%1.7%2026-04-16 21:50