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Club Independiente Petrolero v Guabirá

Kickoff: 2026-03-03 22:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Club Independiente Petrolero (Local)

Prediction 43.66%2.29fair odd
EV -4.82%
Edge -2.21%
Kelly -4.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.13%43.72%43.51%45.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.102.062.1850.00%47.71%48.54%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Guabirá (Visit)

Prediction 30.25%3.31fair odd
EV -1.68%
Edge -0.517%
Kelly -0.747%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.77%30.14%30.52%31.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.073.133.2534.48%32.53%32.00%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.09%3.83fair odd
EV -3.48%
Edge -0.940%
Kelly -1.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.49%26.14%25.97%26.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.513.503.7029.41%28.49%28.57%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Club Independiente Petrolero (Local): 43.66%; Guabirá (Visit): 30.25%; Draw: 26.09%. For Guabirá (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.31. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.25, with an expected value of -1.68%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.76%EV -4.82%E -2.21%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 30.46%EV -7.43%E -2.43%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.78%EV -9.22%E -2.65%K -3.72%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-03 21:55
NordicBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.31%EV -4.82%E -2.21%K -4.09%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 30.95%EV -9.85%E -3.30%K -4.97%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.74%EV -10.00%E -2.90%K -4.08%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-03 21:45
Pinnacle🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.47%EV -5.26%E -2.42%K -4.49%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.57%EV -3.50%E -1.10%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.95%EV -8.69%E -2.48%K -3.48%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-03 21:46
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.96%EV -6.13%E -2.85%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.22%E -2.01%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -3.48%E -0.940%K -1.29%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-03 21:30
Bovada🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.44%EV -6.13%E -2.85%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -7.73%E -2.53%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -6.08%E -1.69%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-03 21:54
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.44%EV -6.13%E -2.85%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -7.73%E -2.53%K -3.77%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -6.08%E -1.69%K -2.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-03 21:40
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -6.13%E -2.85%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -12.27%E -4.23%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -11.30%E -3.32%K -4.71%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-03 21:55
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -6.13%E -2.85%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -12.27%E -4.23%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -11.30%E -3.32%K -4.71%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-03 21:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -6.13%E -2.85%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -12.27%E -4.23%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -11.30%E -3.32%K -4.71%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-03 21:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.13%EV -6.13%E -2.85%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.23%EV -12.27%E -4.23%K -6.46%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.64%EV -11.30%E -3.32%K -4.71%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-03 21:55
Casumo🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.59%EV -10.06%E -4.88%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -4.71%E -1.49%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -8.69%E -2.48%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-03 14:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.59%EV -10.06%E -4.88%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -4.71%E -1.49%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -8.69%E -2.48%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-03 14:55
Unibet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.59%EV -10.06%E -4.88%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -4.71%E -1.49%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -8.69%E -2.48%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-03 14:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.59%EV -10.06%E -4.88%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -4.71%E -1.49%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -8.69%E -2.48%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-03 14:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.59%EV -10.06%E -4.88%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -4.71%E -1.49%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -8.69%E -2.48%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-03 14:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 44.59%EV -10.06%E -4.88%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.16%EV -4.71%E -1.49%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -8.69%E -2.48%K -3.48%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-03 14:55
Coolbet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.61%EV -10.50%E -5.12%K -10.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.77%EV -1.68%E -0.517%K -0.747%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.62%EV -4.78%E -1.31%K -1.80%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-03 14:38
LeoVegas🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.66%EV -10.93%E -5.36%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.93%EV -4.71%E -1.49%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.41%EV -10.00%E -2.90%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-03 14:55
LiveScore Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.66%EV -10.93%E -5.36%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.93%EV -4.71%E -1.49%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.41%EV -10.00%E -2.90%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-03 14:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.66%EV -10.93%E -5.36%K -10.51%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.93%EV -4.71%E -1.49%K -2.19%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.41%EV -10.00%E -2.90%K -4.08%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-03 16:00
SportsBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.31%EV -12.68%E -6.34%K -12.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -9.24%E -3.08%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -3.48%E -0.940%K -1.29%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-03 21:50
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.00%EV -12.68%E -6.34%K -12.68%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -9.24%E -3.08%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -6.08%E -1.69%K -2.34%G +0.000%11.1%2026-03-03 21:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.30I 43.48%NM 42.82%3.15I 31.75%NM 31.26%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.92%1.5%2026-03-03 21:55