The School of Odds
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Club Independiente Petrolero v Caracas FC

Kickoff: 2026-05-05 22:00 UTC

Final: Club Independiente Petrolero 2–3 Caracas FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

26 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Club Independiente Petrolero (Local)

Prediction 42.08%2.38fair odd
EV -2.37%
Edge -1.02%
Kelly -1.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.23%41.97%42.11%43.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.202.202.3248.78%45.55%45.45%43.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Caracas FC (Visit)

Prediction 28.12%3.56fair odd
EV -2.14%
Edge -0.615%
Kelly -0.863%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.12%28.07%28.28%30.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.223.253.4833.33%31.03%30.77%28.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.80%3.36fair odd
EV +1.30%
Edge +0.383%
Kelly +0.543%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.78%29.96%29.61%31.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.163.203.4034.48%31.65%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Club Independiente Petrolero (Local): 42.08%; Caracas FC (Visit): 28.12%; Draw: 29.80%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.36. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.30%.

Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 42.11%EV -2.37%E -1.02%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.16%EV -5.80%E -1.73%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.73%EV +1.30%E +0.383%K +0.543%G +0.007%2.4%2026-05-05 21:15
Casumo🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.12%EV -5.31%E -2.36%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.16%EV -8.61%E -2.65%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.72%EV -1.68%E -0.508%K -0.729%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-05 21:15
Unibet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.12%EV -5.31%E -2.36%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.16%EV -8.61%E -2.65%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.72%EV -1.68%E -0.508%K -0.729%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-05 21:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.12%EV -5.31%E -2.36%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.16%EV -8.61%E -2.65%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.72%EV -1.68%E -0.508%K -0.729%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-05 21:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.12%EV -5.31%E -2.36%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.16%EV -8.61%E -2.65%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.72%EV -1.68%E -0.508%K -0.729%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-05 21:15
SportsBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.64%EV -9.52%E -4.43%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.57%EV -12.83%E -4.14%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -1.68%E -0.508%K -0.729%G +0.000%9.1%2026-05-05 21:15
Coolbet🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 41.91%EV -4.47%E -1.97%K -3.52%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.83%EV -7.20%E -2.18%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.27%EV -3.17%E -0.974%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-05 17:50
betfred_uk🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.86%EV -9.52%E -4.43%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.79%EV -10.01%E -3.13%K -4.55%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -3.17%E -0.974%K -1.41%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-05 21:15
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -9.52%E -4.43%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -15.64%E -5.21%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -3.17%E -0.974%K -1.41%G +0.000%10.6%2026-05-05 21:15
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -5.31%E -2.36%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.28%EV -5.80%E -1.73%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.61%EV -4.66%E -1.45%K -2.12%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-05 21:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.42%E -3.37%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -8.61%E -2.65%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -4.66%E -1.45%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-05 21:30
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.29%EV -7.42%E -3.37%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -8.61%E -2.65%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.08%EV -4.66%E -1.45%K -2.12%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-05 21:19
LiveScore Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 42.16%EV -9.10%E -4.21%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.38%EV -12.83%E -4.14%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -4.66%E -1.45%K -2.12%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-05 21:15
Virgin Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 42.16%EV -9.10%E -4.21%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.38%EV -12.83%E -4.14%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -4.66%E -1.45%K -2.12%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-05 21:15
LeoVegas🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 42.16%EV -9.10%E -4.21%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.38%EV -12.83%E -4.14%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -4.66%E -1.45%K -2.12%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-05 21:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 42.16%EV -9.10%E -4.21%K -7.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.38%EV -12.83%E -4.14%K -6.11%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -4.66%E -1.45%K -2.12%G +0.000%9.8%2026-05-05 21:15
1xBet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 42.54%EV -7.84%E -3.58%K -6.58%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -4.39%E -1.29%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -7.64%E -2.46%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-05 21:30
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.52%E -4.43%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -15.64%E -5.21%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -7.64%E -2.46%K -3.64%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-05 21:15
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -9.52%E -4.43%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -15.64%E -5.21%K -7.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -7.64%E -2.46%K -3.64%G +0.000%12.1%2026-05-05 21:15
Pinnacle🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 42.33%EV -6.15%E -2.76%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.12%EV -2.14%E -0.615%K -0.863%G +0.000%3.09I 32.36%NM 30.55%EV -7.93%E -2.57%K -3.80%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-05 21:30
NordicBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.27%EV -8.26%E -3.79%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.51%EV -5.80%E -1.73%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.22%EV -9.13%E -2.99%K -4.45%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-05 21:15
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.05%EV -13.73%E -6.70%K -13.07%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.02%EV -11.42%E -3.63%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.93%EV -9.13%E -2.99%K -4.45%G +0.000%13.3%2026-05-05 21:30
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -7.42%E -3.37%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -7.20%E -2.18%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -13.59%E -4.69%K -7.15%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-05 21:30
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -7.42%E -3.37%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -7.20%E -2.18%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -13.59%E -4.69%K -7.15%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-05 21:30
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -7.42%E -3.37%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -7.20%E -2.18%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -13.59%E -4.69%K -7.15%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-05 21:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -7.42%E -3.37%K -6.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -7.20%E -2.18%K -3.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -13.59%E -4.69%K -7.15%G +0.000%10.2%2026-05-05 21:30
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.81%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.72%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.47%1.0%2026-05-05 21:29
Smarkets◎2.22I 45.05%NM 42.95%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.25%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.80%4.9%2026-05-05 21:30