The School of Odds
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Club Cienciano v Puerto Cabello

Kickoff: 2026-04-17 02:04 UTC

Final: Club Cienciano 2–0 Puerto Cabello

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Club Cienciano (Local)

Prediction 57.16%1.75fair odd
EV -4.55%
Edge -2.72%
Kelly -6.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.95%57.28%57.16%60.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.601.601.6765.36%62.66%62.50%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Puerto Cabello (Visit)

Prediction 18.70%5.35fair odd
EV +8.49%
Edge +1.46%
Kelly +1.77%
Growth +0.150%

assuming max odds 5.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.56%18.55%18.70%19.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.755.145.005.8021.05%19.45%20.00%17.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.14%4.14fair odd
EV +1.38%
Edge +0.328%
Kelly +0.430%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.95%24.17%24.14%25.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.863.854.2028.57%25.90%25.97%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Club Cienciano (Local): 57.16%; Puerto Cabello (Visit): 18.70%; Draw: 24.14%. For Puerto Cabello (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.35. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.49%.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LiveScore Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 60.02%EV -8.55%E -5.34%K -14.24%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.56%EV +8.49%E +1.46%K +1.77%G +0.150%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.42%EV -1.04%E -0.253%K -0.334%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-17 02:00
ATG (SE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 59.68%EV -6.26%E -3.82%K -9.78%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 17.02%EV +7.55%E +1.31%K +1.59%G +0.120%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.30%EV +1.38%E +0.328%K +0.430%G +0.006%2.2%2026-04-17 02:00
Coolbet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.84%EV -7.40%E -4.57%K -11.94%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.33%EV +2.87%E +0.523%K +0.639%G +0.018%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.83%EV -3.45%E -0.862%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-17 01:58
Unibet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.79%EV -9.69%E -6.13%K -16.71%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV +2.87%E +0.523%K +0.639%G +0.018%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.04%EV -1.04%E -0.253%K -0.334%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-17 02:00
Casumo🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.94%EV -10.26%E -6.54%K -18.00%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.11%EV +2.87%E +0.523%K +0.639%G +0.018%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -1.04%E -0.253%K -0.334%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-17 02:00
Unibet (NL)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.94%EV -10.26%E -6.54%K -18.00%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.11%EV +2.87%E +0.523%K +0.639%G +0.018%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -1.04%E -0.253%K -0.334%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-17 02:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.94%EV -10.26%E -6.54%K -18.00%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.11%EV +2.87%E +0.523%K +0.639%G +0.018%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.95%EV -1.04%E -0.253%K -0.334%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-17 02:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.49%EV -12.55%E -8.20%K -23.68%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.17%EV -0.867%E -0.164%K -0.202%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.34%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-17 02:00
LeoVegas🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.49%EV -12.55%E -8.20%K -23.68%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.17%EV -0.867%E -0.164%K -0.202%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.34%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-17 02:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.49%EV -12.55%E -8.20%K -23.68%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.17%EV -0.867%E -0.164%K -0.202%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.34%EV -5.86%E -1.50%K -2.02%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-17 02:00
Pinnacle🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -5.69%E -3.45%K -8.75%G +0.000%5.17I 19.34%NM 18.34%EV -3.30%E -0.638%K -0.791%G +0.000%3.92I 25.51%NM 24.19%EV -5.38%E -1.37%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-17 01:59
Bovada🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.01%EV -6.26%E -3.82%K -9.78%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.29%EV -7.07%E -1.84%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-17 01:58
betfred_uk🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.68%EV -8.55%E -5.34%K -14.24%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.14%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.19%EV -13.10%E -3.64%K -5.04%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-17 01:59
SportsBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.71%EV -10.26%E -6.54%K -18.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.16%EV -9.48%E -2.53%K -3.45%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-17 02:00
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 57.53%EV -10.26%E -6.54%K -18.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.06%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.41%EV -10.69%E -2.89%K -3.96%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-17 02:00
Sky Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.74%EV -10.26%E -6.54%K -18.00%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -6.48%E -1.30%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -15.52%E -4.43%K -6.21%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-17 02:00
NordicBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.65%EV -7.40%E -4.57%K -11.94%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.54%EV -7.41%E -1.50%K -1.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.81%EV -10.69%E -2.89%K -3.96%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-17 02:00
1xBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.74%EV -5.69%E -3.45%K -8.75%G +0.000%4.94I 20.24%NM 18.95%EV -7.60%E -1.54%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.32%EV -7.07%E -1.84%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-17 01:59
DraftKings🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.95%EV -4.55%E -2.72%K -6.78%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.47%EV -10.22%E -2.13%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -8.28%E -2.18%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-17 02:00
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.70%EV -7.40%E -4.57%K -11.94%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -10.22%E -2.13%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -8.28%E -2.18%K -2.96%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-17 01:59
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.85%EV -7.98%E -4.95%K -13.07%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -10.22%E -2.13%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%EV -8.28%E -2.18%K -2.96%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-17 01:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.85%EV -7.98%E -4.95%K -13.07%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -10.22%E -2.13%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%EV -8.28%E -2.18%K -2.96%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-17 01:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.85%EV -7.98%E -4.95%K -13.07%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.07%EV -10.22%E -2.13%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.09%EV -8.28%E -2.18%K -2.96%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-17 01:59
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.25%EV -8.55%E -5.34%K -14.24%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.75%EV -10.22%E -2.13%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -13.10%E -3.64%K -5.04%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-17 02:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 56.80%EV -10.26%E -6.54%K -18.00%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 18.77%EV -11.15%E -2.35%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.43%EV -11.90%E -3.26%K -4.49%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-17 01:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.69I 59.17%NM 58.87%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.86%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.27%0.5%2026-04-17 02:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.68I 59.52%NM 59.18%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.57%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.25%0.6%2026-04-17 02:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.68I 59.52%NM 59.18%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.57%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.25%0.6%2026-04-17 02:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.68I 59.52%NM 59.18%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.57%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.25%0.6%2026-04-17 02:00
Smarkets◎1.67I 59.88%NM 58.80%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.64%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.55%1.8%2026-04-17 02:00