Language:English
Club Bolívar v Sao Paulo
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Club Bolívar (Local)
Prediction 52.40%1.91fair odd
EV -5.15%
Edge -2.85%
Kelly -6.36%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.81
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.41%52.36%52.37%53.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.761.761.8159.52%56.97%56.82%55.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sao Paulo (Visit)
Prediction 20.84%4.80fair odd
EV -0.999%
Edge -0.210%
Kelly -0.267%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.00%20.84%20.89%21.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.434.404.7523.81%22.56%22.73%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 26.75%3.74fair odd
EV -2.35%
Edge -0.643%
Kelly -0.886%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.27%26.80%26.74%27.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.433.403.6530.77%29.11%29.41%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Club Bolívar (Local): 52.40%; Sao Paulo (Visit): 20.84%; Draw: 26.75%. For Sao Paulo (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.80. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.75, with an expected value of -0.999%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.81I 55.25%NM 53.28%EV -5.15%E -2.85%K -6.36%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 20.30%EV -0.999%E -0.210%K -0.267%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.42%EV -2.35%E -0.643%K -0.886%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-12 00:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.11%EV -5.67%E -3.15%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -2.04%E -0.434%K -0.552%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.55%EV -3.68%E -1.02%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-11 21:04 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.44%EV -5.67%E -3.15%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%EV -6.21%E -1.38%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -5.02%E -1.41%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-11 22:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.24%EV -5.67%E -3.15%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -6.21%E -1.38%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.36%E -1.82%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-11 16:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.99%EV -5.67%E -3.15%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.27%EV -8.29%E -1.89%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -6.36%E -1.82%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-11 16:58 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.87%EV -5.67%E -3.15%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.46%EV -9.34%E -2.15%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -6.36%E -1.82%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-11 17:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.79%EV -5.67%E -3.15%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.19%EV -8.29%E -1.89%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.02%EV -7.70%E -2.23%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-11 16:59 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.41%EV -5.67%E -3.15%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.37%EV -9.75%E -2.25%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.22%EV -9.04%E -2.66%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-11 23:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.09%EV -6.20%E -3.46%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 4.65I 21.51%NM 20.44%EV -3.08%E -0.663%K -0.845%G +0.000% | 3.59I 27.86%NM 26.47%EV -3.95%E -1.10%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-12 00:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.56%EV -6.72%E -3.78%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 4.45I 22.47%NM 20.63%EV -7.25%E -1.63%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -11.71%E -3.55%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-08-11 23:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.00%EV -7.77%E -4.41%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -6.21%E -1.38%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -5.02%E -1.41%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-11 23:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.00%EV -7.77%E -4.41%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -6.21%E -1.38%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -5.02%E -1.41%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-11 23:34 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.00%EV -7.77%E -4.41%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -6.21%E -1.38%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -5.02%E -1.41%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-11 23:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.00%EV -7.77%E -4.41%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -6.21%E -1.38%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.27%EV -5.02%E -1.41%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-11 23:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 52.39%EV -7.77%E -4.41%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -6.21%E -1.38%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -9.04%E -2.66%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-12 00:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.87%EV -8.29%E -4.74%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.63%EV -8.29%E -1.89%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.71%E -3.55%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-11 12:44 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.87%EV -8.29%E -4.74%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.63%EV -8.29%E -1.89%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.71%E -3.55%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-11 12:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.87%EV -8.29%E -4.74%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.63%EV -8.29%E -1.89%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.71%E -3.55%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-11 12:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 51.87%EV -8.29%E -4.74%K -11.06%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.63%EV -8.29%E -1.89%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -11.71%E -3.55%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-08-11 12:44 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.68%EV -8.82%E -5.07%K -11.92%G +0.000% | 4.67I 21.41%NM 20.00%EV -2.67%E -0.571%K -0.727%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -5.02%E -1.41%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-12 00:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.15%EV -9.34%E -5.40%K -12.80%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -8.29%E -1.89%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -11.71%E -3.55%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-08-12 00:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 51.43%EV -9.34%E -5.40%K -12.80%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.19%EV -12.46%E -2.97%K -3.89%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.38%EV -13.05%E -4.01%K -5.80%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-08-12 00:14 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 52.91%EV -11.44%E -6.77%K -16.58%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 20.79%EV -10.38%E -2.41%K -3.14%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.30%EV -9.04%E -2.66%K -3.76%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-08-12 00:04 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 52.72%EV -11.96%E -7.12%K -17.59%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 20.84%EV -11.42%E -2.69%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.44%EV -10.37%E -3.10%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-11 23:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 52.72%EV -11.96%E -7.12%K -17.59%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 20.84%EV -11.42%E -2.69%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.44%EV -10.37%E -3.10%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-11 23:34 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 52.72%EV -11.96%E -7.12%K -17.59%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 20.84%EV -11.42%E -2.69%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.44%EV -10.37%E -3.10%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-11 23:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 52.72%EV -11.96%E -7.12%K -17.59%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 20.84%EV -11.42%E -2.69%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.44%EV -10.37%E -3.10%K -4.41%G +0.000% | 12.9% | 2026-08-11 23:35 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.88% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.88% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.24% | 0.6% | 2026-08-12 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.88% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.88% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.24% | 0.6% | 2026-08-12 00:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.87I 53.48%NM 53.01% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.83% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.16% | 0.9% | 2026-08-12 00:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.87I 53.48%NM 53.01% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.83% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 27.16% | 0.9% | 2026-08-12 00:20 |
Discuss this game on odds.forum
No published comments yet.