Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Club Bolívar v Sao Paulo

2026-08-12 20:00 UTC — Copa Sudamericana

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

55%

21%

24%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Club Bolívar (Local)

Prediction 54.57%1.83fair odd

EV -4.50%

Edge -2.57%

Kelly -6.00%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

52.34%54.57%54.69%56.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.591.691.701.7562.89%59.31%58.82%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sao Paulo (Visit)

Prediction 21.42%4.67fair odd

EV +4.53%

Edge +0.928%

Kelly +1.17%

Growth +0.053%

assuming max odds 4.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

20.11%21.42%21.62%22.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.804.254.204.8826.32%23.54%23.81%20.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.01%4.17fair odd

EV -1.09%

Edge -0.264%

Kelly -0.349%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

23.12%24.01%23.69%25.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.503.793.704.1228.57%26.41%27.03%24.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Club Bolívar (Local): 54.57%; Sao Paulo (Visit): 21.42%; Draw: 24.01%. For Sao Paulo (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.67. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.88, producing a positive expected value of +4.53%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Draw	Margin	Updated
1xBet	1.75I 57.14%NM 56.07%EV -4.50%E -2.57%K -6.00%G +0.000%	4.88I 20.49%NM 20.11%EV +4.53%E +0.928%K +1.17%G +0.053%	4.12I 24.27%NM 23.82%EV -1.09%E -0.264%K -0.349%G +0.000%	1.9%	2026-07-31 13:01
Codere (IT)	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.58%EV -8.86%E -5.31%K -13.23%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -3.61%E -0.802%K -1.03%G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64%NM 23.80%EV -6.37%E -1.63%K -2.20%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-07-31 12:00
Coolbet	1.70I 58.82%NM 54.93%EV -7.23%E -4.25%K -10.32%G +0.000%	4.30I 23.26%NM 21.72%EV -7.89%E -1.84%K -2.39%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.35%EV -3.97%E -0.992%K -1.32%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-07-31 12:15
SportsBet	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.37%EV -8.86%E -5.31%K -13.23%G +0.000%	4.30I 23.26%NM 21.51%EV -7.89%E -1.84%K -2.39%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -3.97%E -0.992%K -1.32%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-07-31 12:13
LeoVegas	1.65I 60.61%NM 55.35%EV -9.96%E -6.03%K -15.32%G +0.000%	4.30I 23.26%NM 21.24%EV -7.89%E -1.84%K -2.39%G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -6.37%E -1.63%K -2.20%G +0.000%	9.5%	2026-07-31 12:00
William Hill	1.73I 57.80%NM 53.21%EV -5.59%E -3.23%K -7.66%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -10.04%E -2.39%K -3.14%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -11.17%E -3.02%K -4.14%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-07-31 12:14
888sport	1.73I 57.80%NM 53.21%EV -5.59%E -3.23%K -7.66%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -10.04%E -2.39%K -3.14%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -11.17%E -3.02%K -4.14%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-07-31 12:14
Mr Green (SE)	1.73I 57.80%NM 53.21%EV -5.59%E -3.23%K -7.66%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -10.04%E -2.39%K -3.14%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -11.17%E -3.02%K -4.14%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-07-31 12:15
888sport (SE)	1.73I 57.80%NM 53.21%EV -5.59%E -3.23%K -7.66%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 21.92%EV -10.04%E -2.39%K -3.14%G +0.000%	3.70I 27.03%NM 24.88%EV -11.17%E -3.02%K -4.14%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-07-31 12:15
Paddy Power	1.65I 60.61%NM 54.73%EV -9.96%E -6.03%K -15.32%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 21.50%EV -10.04%E -2.39%K -3.14%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 23.77%EV -8.77%E -2.31%K -3.13%G +0.000%	10.7%	2026-07-31 12:14
Unibet (FR)	1.59I 62.89%NM 54.80%EV -13.23%E -8.32%K -22.42%G +0.000%	4.15I 24.10%NM 21.00%EV -11.11%E -2.68%K -3.53%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 24.20%EV -13.57%E -3.77%K -5.22%G +0.000%	14.8%	2026-07-31 11:59
Coral	1.70I 58.82%NM 52.34%EV -7.23%E -4.25%K -10.32%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 22.24%EV -14.32%E -3.58%K -4.77%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 25.42%EV -15.97%E -4.56%K -6.39%G +0.000%	12.4%	2026-07-31 11:04
Sky Bet	1.62I 61.73%NM 53.30%EV -11.59%E -7.16%K -18.70%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 22.72%EV -18.60%E -4.90%K -6.64%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 23.98%EV -13.57%E -3.77%K -5.22%G +0.000%	15.8%	2026-07-31 12:14

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.