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Caracas FC v Metropolitanos FC
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Caracas FC (Local)
Prediction 39.62%2.52fair odd
EV -0.943%
Edge -0.377%
Kelly -0.628%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.06%39.58%39.43%40.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.322.302.5044.44%43.10%43.48%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Metropolitanos FC (Visit)
Prediction 29.17%3.43fair odd
EV -2.27%
Edge -0.677%
Kelly -0.966%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.99%29.22%29.45%30.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.123.153.3533.33%32.04%31.75%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 31.20%3.20fair odd
EV -1.08%
Edge -0.342%
Kelly -0.500%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.17
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.21%31.20%31.13%32.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.852.932.903.1735.09%34.13%34.48%31.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Caracas FC (Local): 39.62%; Metropolitanos FC (Visit): 29.17%; Draw: 31.20%. For Caracas FC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.52. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.50, with an expected value of -0.943%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.80%EV -0.943%E -0.377%K -0.628%G +0.000% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 30.60%EV -7.52%E -2.37%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 30.60%EV -1.08%E -0.342%K -0.500%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-03-04 21:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.42%EV -4.90%E -2.04%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.56%EV -6.65%E -2.08%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.02%EV -4.83%E -1.58%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-04 21:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.05%EV -4.90%E -2.04%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.72%EV -11.02%E -3.61%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.23%EV -3.27%E -1.05%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-04 21:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -4.90%E -2.04%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -12.48%E -4.16%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -9.51%E -3.28%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-04 21:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -4.90%E -2.04%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -12.48%E -4.16%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -9.51%E -3.28%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-04 21:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -4.90%E -2.04%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -12.48%E -4.16%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -9.51%E -3.28%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-04 21:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -4.90%E -2.04%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.45%EV -12.48%E -4.16%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.50%EV -9.51%E -3.28%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-03-04 21:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -5.70%E -2.39%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.38%EV -3.14%E -0.947%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.04%EV -8.26%E -2.81%K -4.26%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-04 21:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.90%EV -5.70%E -2.39%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.39%EV -8.10%E -2.57%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 31.71%EV -8.88%E -3.04%K -4.63%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-04 21:35 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.76%EV -8.87%E -3.86%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -2.27%E -0.677%K -0.966%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-04 21:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.06%EV -8.87%E -3.86%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -9.56%E -3.08%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -4.83%E -1.58%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-04 19:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.86%EV -8.87%E -3.86%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.58%EV -9.56%E -3.08%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-04 16:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -8.87%E -3.86%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -12.48%E -4.16%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -6.39%E -2.13%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-04 19:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.94%EV -10.85%E -4.82%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.53%EV -8.10%E -2.57%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.53%EV -11.07%E -3.88%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-03 13:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.94%EV -10.85%E -4.82%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.53%EV -8.10%E -2.57%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.53%EV -11.07%E -3.88%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-03 13:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.94%EV -10.85%E -4.82%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.53%EV -8.10%E -2.57%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.53%EV -11.07%E -3.88%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-03 13:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.94%EV -10.85%E -4.82%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.53%EV -8.10%E -2.57%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.53%EV -11.07%E -3.88%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-03 13:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.94%EV -10.85%E -4.82%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.53%EV -8.10%E -2.57%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.53%EV -11.07%E -3.88%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-03 13:50 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.94%EV -10.85%E -4.82%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.53%EV -8.10%E -2.57%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.53%EV -11.07%E -3.88%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-03 13:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.94%EV -10.85%E -4.82%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.53%EV -8.10%E -2.57%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.53%EV -11.07%E -3.88%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-03 13:50 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.94%EV -10.85%E -4.82%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.53%EV -8.10%E -2.57%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.53%EV -11.07%E -3.88%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-03 13:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.94%EV -10.85%E -4.82%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.53%EV -8.10%E -2.57%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 31.53%EV -11.07%E -3.88%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-03-03 16:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -10.85%E -4.82%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -12.48%E -4.16%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -9.51%E -3.28%K -5.00%G +0.000% | 12.3% | 2026-03-04 16:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.52I 39.68%NM 39.43% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.58% | 0.6% | 2026-03-04 21:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.66% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.10% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.24% | 1.7% | 2026-03-04 21:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.66% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.10% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.24% | 1.7% | 2026-03-04 21:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.66% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.10% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.24% | 1.7% | 2026-03-04 21:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 39.64% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.86% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.50% | 2.6% | 2026-03-04 21:55 |