The School of Odds
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CA Juventud v Puerto Cabello

Kickoff: 2026-04-29 22:00 UTC

Final: CA Juventud 4–0 Puerto Cabello

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

CA Juventud (Local)

Prediction 43.82%2.28fair odd
EV -5.78%
Edge -2.69%
Kelly -5.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.92%43.88%43.82%45.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.072.072.1550.00%48.26%48.31%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Puerto Cabello (Visit)

Prediction 25.92%3.86fair odd
EV +2.37%
Edge +0.601%
Kelly +0.805%
Growth +0.019%

assuming max odds 3.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.40%25.94%25.92%27.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.603.603.9530.77%27.75%27.78%25.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.26%3.30fair odd
EV -3.17%
Edge -0.992%
Kelly -1.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.97%30.18%30.26%30.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.053.003.2035.71%32.78%33.33%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: CA Juventud (Local): 43.82%; Puerto Cabello (Visit): 25.92%; Draw: 30.26%. For Puerto Cabello (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.86. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.37%.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.47%EV -7.09%E -3.35%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.40%EV +2.37%E +0.601%K +0.805%G +0.019%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.12%EV -3.17%E -0.992%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-22 16:19
Casumo🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.56%EV -9.28%E -4.48%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.50%EV -0.218%E -0.057%K -0.076%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -4.69%E -1.49%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-22 16:19
Unibet (NL)🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.56%EV -9.28%E -4.48%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.50%EV -0.218%E -0.057%K -0.076%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -4.69%E -1.49%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-22 16:19
Unibet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.56%EV -9.28%E -4.48%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.50%EV -0.218%E -0.057%K -0.076%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -4.69%E -1.49%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-22 16:19
Svenska Spel🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.56%EV -9.28%E -4.48%K -8.68%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.50%EV -0.218%E -0.057%K -0.076%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -4.69%E -1.49%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-22 16:19
Coolbet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.18%EV -5.78%E -2.69%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.67%EV -4.11%E -1.11%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.15%EV -4.69%E -1.49%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-21 16:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.31%EV -12.35%E -6.18%K -12.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -4.11%E -1.11%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -9.23%E -3.08%K -4.61%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-22 16:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.31%EV -12.35%E -6.18%K -12.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -4.11%E -1.11%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -9.23%E -3.08%K -4.61%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-22 16:19
LiveScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.31%EV -12.35%E -6.18%K -12.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -4.11%E -1.11%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -9.23%E -3.08%K -4.61%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-22 16:19
LeoVegas🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.31%EV -12.35%E -6.18%K -12.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -4.11%E -1.11%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -9.23%E -3.08%K -4.61%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-22 16:19
Pinnacle🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.57%EV -5.78%E -2.69%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 25.81%EV -5.92%E -1.63%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 30.62%EV -7.41%E -2.42%K -3.60%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-22 14:49
1xBet🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 43.77%EV -6.65%E -3.12%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.62I 27.62%NM 25.76%EV -6.18%E -1.71%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 30.47%EV -7.41%E -2.42%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-22 14:49
Bovada🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.78%E -2.69%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.20%EV -6.70%E -1.86%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -4.69%E -1.49%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 09:56
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.28%EV -7.97%E -3.79%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -7.99%E -2.25%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.52%EV -4.69%E -1.49%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-22 10:39
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.62%EV -7.09%E -3.35%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.05%EV -7.99%E -2.25%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.32%EV -7.71%E -2.53%K -3.76%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-22 14:44
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.97%E -3.79%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -9.29%E -2.65%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -9.23%E -3.08%K -4.61%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-21 17:04
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.97%E -3.79%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -9.29%E -2.65%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -9.23%E -3.08%K -4.61%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-21 17:01
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.97%E -3.79%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -9.29%E -2.65%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -9.23%E -3.08%K -4.61%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-21 17:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -7.97%E -3.79%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -9.29%E -2.65%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -9.23%E -3.08%K -4.61%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-21 17:00
SportsBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -10.16%E -4.96%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -9.29%E -2.65%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -9.23%E -3.08%K -4.61%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-23 09:54
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -10.16%E -4.96%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -9.29%E -2.65%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -9.23%E -3.08%K -4.61%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-23 09:54
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -10.16%E -4.96%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -11.88%E -3.49%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -9.23%E -3.08%K -4.61%G +0.000%11.5%2026-04-23 09:53
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.96%EV -12.35%E -6.18%K -12.35%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.24%EV -13.18%E -3.93%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.80%EV -10.74%E -3.64%K -5.51%G +0.000%13.7%2026-04-23 22:04
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -10.16%E -4.96%K -9.68%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -14.47%E -4.39%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -6.20%E -2.00%K -2.95%G +0.000%11.3%2026-04-22 14:44
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.92%EV -12.35%E -6.18%K -12.35%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.42%EV -15.77%E -4.85%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.66%EV -15.28%E -5.46%K -8.49%G +0.000%16.5%2026-04-23 09:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.99I 50.25%NM 43.15%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.83%2.86I 34.97%NM 30.02%16.5%2026-04-22 20:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-04-22 20:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-04-22 20:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-04-22 20:45