The School of Odds
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CA Boston River v Sao Paulo

Kickoff: 2026-04-08 00:32 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

CA Boston River (Local)

Prediction 16.21%6.17fair odd
EV +9.43%
Edge +1.40%
Kelly +1.64%
Growth +0.155%

assuming max odds 6.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.32%15.94%16.21%17.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.105.945.976.7519.61%16.84%16.75%14.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sao Paulo (Visit)

Prediction 58.52%1.71fair odd
EV -3.45%
Edge -2.09%
Kelly -5.31%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.06%58.77%58.61%61.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.491.561.561.6567.11%64.19%64.10%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.27%3.96fair odd
EV +1.09%
Edge +0.273%
Kelly +0.364%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.29%25.29%25.19%26.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.673.734.0029.41%27.28%26.85%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: CA Boston River (Local): 16.21%; Sao Paulo (Visit): 58.52%; Draw: 25.27%. For CA Boston River (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.17. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.43%.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯6.75I 14.81%NM 14.48%EV +9.43%E +1.40%K +1.64%G +0.155%1.60I 62.50%NM 61.09%EV -6.38%E -3.98%K -10.63%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.43%EV +1.09%E +0.273%K +0.364%G +0.004%2.3%2026-04-08 00:29
Unibet🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.58%EV +5.37%E +0.827%K +0.977%G +0.053%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.13%EV -9.30%E -6.00%K -16.91%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.29%EV -1.43%E -0.368%K -0.495%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-08 00:29
Casumo🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.58%EV +5.37%E +0.827%K +0.977%G +0.053%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.13%EV -9.30%E -6.00%K -16.91%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.29%EV -1.43%E -0.368%K -0.495%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-08 00:29
Unibet (NL)🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.58%EV +5.37%E +0.827%K +0.977%G +0.053%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.13%EV -9.30%E -6.00%K -16.91%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.29%EV -1.43%E -0.368%K -0.495%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-08 00:29
Svenska Spel🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.58%EV +5.37%E +0.827%K +0.977%G +0.053%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.13%EV -9.30%E -6.00%K -16.91%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.29%EV -1.43%E -0.368%K -0.495%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-08 00:29
Coolbet🎯6.50I 15.38%NM 14.32%EV +5.37%E +0.827%K +0.977%G +0.053%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.85%EV -10.47%E -6.84%K -19.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -5.23%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-08 00:30
Virgin Bet🎯6.40I 15.63%NM 14.34%EV +3.75%E +0.586%K +0.695%G +0.026%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.19%EV -12.23%E -8.15%K -24.45%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.47%EV -5.23%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-08 00:29
LeoVegas (SE)🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.57%EV +1.32%E +0.211%K +0.252%G +0.003%1.49I 67.11%NM 61.13%EV -12.81%E -8.60%K -26.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.29%EV -5.23%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-08 00:29
LeoVegas🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.57%EV +1.32%E +0.211%K +0.252%G +0.003%1.49I 67.11%NM 61.13%EV -12.81%E -8.60%K -26.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.29%EV -5.23%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-08 00:29
LiveScore Bet🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 14.57%EV +1.32%E +0.211%K +0.252%G +0.003%1.49I 67.11%NM 61.13%EV -12.81%E -8.60%K -26.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.29%EV -5.23%E -1.39%K -1.90%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-08 00:29
1xBet🎯6.20I 16.13%NM 15.63%EV +0.511%E +0.082%K +0.098%G +0.001%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.46%EV -4.62%E -2.83%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.89I 25.71%NM 24.91%EV -1.69%E -0.434%K -0.584%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-08 00:29
SportsBet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.19%EV -2.73%E -0.455%K -0.546%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 58.78%EV -9.30%E -6.00%K -16.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -11.54%E -3.30%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-08 00:29
Pinnacle🎯5.94I 16.84%NM 15.92%EV -3.70%E -0.624%K -0.750%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.12%EV -6.38%E -3.98%K -10.63%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 24.96%EV -4.21%E -1.11%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-08 00:29
DraftKings🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.21%EV -6.78%E -1.18%K -1.43%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 58.61%EV -6.96%E -4.38%K -11.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -6.49%E -1.75%K -2.40%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-08 00:30
Unibet (UK)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -10.84%E -1.97%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 57.63%EV -6.38%E -3.98%K -10.63%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -9.02%E -2.50%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-08 00:29
Paddy Power🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.46%EV -10.84%E -1.97%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.67%EV -8.13%E -5.18%K -14.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -11.54%E -3.30%K -4.62%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-08 00:30
William Hill🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.46%EV -10.84%E -1.97%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.67%EV -8.13%E -5.18%K -14.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -11.54%E -3.30%K -4.62%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-08 00:29
888sport🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.46%EV -10.84%E -1.97%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.67%EV -8.13%E -5.18%K -14.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -11.54%E -3.30%K -4.62%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-08 00:30
888sport (SE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.46%EV -10.84%E -1.97%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.67%EV -8.13%E -5.18%K -14.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -11.54%E -3.30%K -4.62%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-08 00:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.46%EV -10.84%E -1.97%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 57.67%EV -8.13%E -5.18%K -14.26%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -11.54%E -3.30%K -4.62%G +0.000%10.4%2026-04-08 00:30
Sky Bet🎯5.50I 18.18%NM 16.10%EV -10.84%E -1.97%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 57.86%EV -10.47%E -6.84%K -19.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -14.07%E -4.14%K -5.86%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-08 00:29
NordicBet🎯5.40I 18.52%NM 17.13%EV -12.46%E -2.31%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.06%EV -3.45%E -2.09%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.81%EV -12.81%E -3.71%K -5.23%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-08 00:30
Coral🎯5.25I 19.05%NM 16.98%EV -14.89%E -2.84%K -3.50%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 56.79%EV -8.13%E -5.18%K -14.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.22%EV -14.07%E -4.14%K -5.86%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-08 00:30
Unibet (FR)🎯5.10I 19.61%NM 17.08%EV -17.32%E -3.40%K -4.22%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 57.30%EV -11.06%E -7.27%K -21.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.62%EV -14.07%E -4.14%K -5.86%G +0.000%14.8%2026-04-08 00:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.69%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.74%0.9%2026-04-08 00:29
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎6.80I 14.71%NM 14.57%1.66I 60.24%NM 59.69%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.74%0.9%2026-04-08 00:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎6.60I 15.15%NM 15.00%1.67I 59.88%NM 59.28%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.72%1.0%2026-04-08 00:30
Smarkets◎6.40I 15.63%NM 14.97%1.61I 62.11%NM 59.49%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.54%4.4%2026-04-08 00:30
Matchbook◎6.80I 14.71%NM 13.85%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.86%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.30%6.2%2026-04-08 00:30