The School of Odds
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Bragantino-SP v River Plate

Kickoff: 2026-05-01 00:30 UTC

Final: Bragantino-SP 0–1 River Plate

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Bragantino-SP (Local)

Prediction 34.63%2.89fair odd
EV -0.955%
Edge -0.334%
Kelly -0.513%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.22%34.66%34.63%35.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.662.632.8640.82%37.59%38.02%34.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

River Plate (Visit)

Prediction 33.56%2.98fair odd
EV -4.03%
Edge -1.41%
Kelly -2.17%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.59%33.46%33.56%35.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.732.752.8638.46%36.68%36.36%34.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.81%3.14fair odd
EV +0.209%
Edge +0.066%
Kelly +0.097%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.39%31.88%31.81%32.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.942.953.1535.71%34.05%33.90%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bragantino-SP (Local): 34.63%; River Plate (Visit): 33.56%; Draw: 31.81%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.14. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.209%.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.62%EV -3.03%E -1.08%K -1.68%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.62%EV -6.04%E -2.16%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77%EV +0.209%E +0.066%K +0.097%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-01 00:24
Casumo🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.46%EV -4.76%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.46%EV -7.72%E -2.81%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.07%EV -2.97%E -0.975%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-01 00:24
Unibet (NL)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.46%EV -4.76%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.46%EV -7.72%E -2.81%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.07%EV -2.97%E -0.975%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-01 00:24
Unibet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.46%EV -4.76%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.46%EV -7.72%E -2.81%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.07%EV -2.97%E -0.975%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-01 00:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.46%EV -4.76%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.46%EV -7.72%E -2.81%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.07%EV -2.97%E -0.975%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-01 00:24
1xBet🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 33.22%EV -0.955%E -0.334%K -0.513%G +0.000%2.69I 37.17%NM 35.32%EV -9.73%E -3.62%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.46%EV -3.93%E -1.30%K -1.94%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-01 00:20
DraftKings🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.50%EV -4.76%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.88%EV -6.04%E -2.16%K -3.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.62%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-01 00:04
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.70%EV -6.50%E -2.41%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.07%EV -7.72%E -2.81%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.23%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-01 00:19
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -9.27%E -3.54%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -12.08%E -4.61%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -4.56%E -1.52%K -2.28%G +0.000%9.7%2026-05-01 00:05
Pinnacle🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.63%EV -4.76%E -1.73%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.30%EV -4.03%E -1.41%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 32.07%EV -5.52%E -1.86%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-01 00:25
Bovada🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.52%EV -6.50%E -2.41%K -3.82%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.89%EV -7.72%E -2.81%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.59%EV -6.15%E -2.09%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-01 00:23
LeoVegas🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.58%EV -8.92%E -3.39%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.58%EV -11.75%E -4.47%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.83%EV -6.15%E -2.09%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-01 00:25
Virgin Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.58%EV -8.92%E -3.39%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.58%EV -11.75%E -4.47%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.83%EV -6.15%E -2.09%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-01 00:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.58%EV -8.92%E -3.39%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.58%EV -11.75%E -4.47%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.83%EV -6.15%E -2.09%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-01 00:24
LiveScore Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.58%EV -8.92%E -3.39%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.58%EV -11.75%E -4.47%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.83%EV -6.15%E -2.09%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-01 00:24
NordicBet🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 34.45%EV -7.19%E -2.68%K -4.28%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.94%EV -8.73%E -3.21%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.61%EV -7.11%E -2.43%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-01 00:19
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.42%EV -13.42%E -5.37%K -8.95%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.05%EV -12.75%E -4.90%K -7.97%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.53%EV -7.74%E -2.67%K -4.08%G +0.000%12.9%2026-04-30 23:59
SportsBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.28%EV -9.96%E -3.83%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.76%EV -6.04%E -2.16%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.96%EV -8.70%E -3.03%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-01 00:00
Unibet (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.69%EV -15.15%E -6.19%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.63%EV -12.75%E -4.90%K -7.97%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.68%EV -9.33%E -3.28%K -5.05%G +0.000%14.4%2026-05-01 00:19
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -9.27%E -3.54%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -6.04%E -2.16%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -10.93%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-01 00:25
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -9.27%E -3.54%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -6.04%E -2.16%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -10.93%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-01 00:24
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -9.27%E -3.54%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -6.04%E -2.16%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -10.93%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-01 00:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -9.27%E -3.54%K -5.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -6.04%E -2.16%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -10.93%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000%9.6%2026-05-01 00:24
Paddy Power🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.79%EV -9.96%E -3.83%K -6.22%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.90%EV -7.72%E -2.81%K -4.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.31%EV -10.93%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000%10.5%2026-05-01 00:10
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.48%EV -13.42%E -5.37%K -8.95%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.85%EV -9.40%E -3.48%K -5.53%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -10.93%E -3.90%K -6.07%G +0.000%12.8%2026-04-30 23:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.82I 35.46%NM 35.09%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.99%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.92%1.1%2026-05-01 00:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.82I 35.46%NM 35.09%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.99%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.92%1.1%2026-05-01 00:19
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.82I 35.46%NM 35.09%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.99%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.92%1.1%2026-05-01 00:25
Matchbook◎2.84I 35.21%NM 34.75%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.36%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.90%1.3%2026-05-01 00:25
Smarkets◎2.80I 35.71%NM 35.18%2.98I 33.56%NM 33.05%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.77%1.5%2026-05-01 00:20